32-31. That was the score late in the first half of the Oct. 29 exhibition game between Duke and Bellarmine. A slow start in the Blue Devils’ first contest of the season was to be expected, but few in Cameron predicted that the reigning Division II champions would hang around for so long. Drawing blanket conclusions from 20 minutes of play in a game Duke ultimately won 87-62 would be unwise, especially since head coach Mike Krzyzewski employed a rapid-fire substitution pattern in the first half. Nonetheless, the Blue Devils’ struggles with turnovers and 3-point shooting signaled an inauspicious start to a season fraught with potential roadblocks.
Two weeks ago in my column on upstart mid-major Belmont, I alluded to some of the daunting opponents Duke will face early in the 2011-2012 campaign. In light of the release of the first AP Top 25 poll, the difficulty of the Blue Devils’ non-conference slate—and its ramifications for the rest of the season—bears further consideration.
Even if the Blue Devils get past Belmont this Friday in their first official game, a tenuous assumption given the Bruins’ talent, Duke will have little time to rest before a bevy of marquee matchups. The Blue Devils meet perennial blueblood Michigan State Nov. 15 in Madison Square Garden. They then travel to the Maui Invitational Nov. 21 for one of the most loaded fall tournaments in recent memory. Tennessee may put up a fight in the early going of Duke’s first-round game, but the inexperienced Volunteers will find themselves overmatched both in the paint and on the perimeter.
On the other hand, both of the Blue Devils’ potential second-round opponents—No. 18 Michigan and No. 11 Memphis—have enough firepower to pull off an upset. The Wolverines’ squad is virtually identical to the one Duke barely nipped in the second round of the 2011 NCAA Tournament. Although Michigan must replace floor-general Darius Morris’ 15 points per game, Zack Novak, Stu Douglass and Evan Smotrycz are all snipers from the perimeter and could negate the advantage the Blue Devils typically enjoy from 3-point range. 6-foot-5 Tim Hardaway Jr. will also pose matchup problems for Duke on the wing.
As for Memphis, the Tigers boast one of the most explosive guard tandems in the nation in Will Barton and Joe Jackson. One of the youngest Division-I teams last year, Memphis still pushed Arizona to the limit in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, losing by only two points. With a year of experience under their belts and highly touted freshman Adonis Thomas in the fold, the Tigers will be eager to prove that they deserve the high expectations.
If the Blue Devils advance to the championship game, they will face Georgetown, No. 13 Kansas or No. 17 UCLA. The Hoyas are rebuilding but have a history of shocking Duke. And although the latter two squads lack important pieces, they both feature physical post players who could frustrate the Plumlees inside (Thomas Robinson for Kansas; Reeves Nelson and Joshua Smith for UCLA).
After what promises to be a strenuous trip to Maui, Duke can look forward to a Nov. 29 clash with No. 3 Ohio State on the road. The Buckeyes are extremely young but arguably possess the best player in the country: the 6-foot-9, 280-pound Jared Sullinger. Quite simply, the first-team All American is a beast. He will rack up 20 and 10 in this game, and maybe more. If the Blue Devils can neutralize Sullinger’s supporting cast, though, they may be willing to cede monster numbers to the big man as long as they can come away with the win.
Duke should be commended for assembling such a challenging non-conference schedule. Playing too many pushovers in the fall can lull elite teams to sleep by the time the conference season begins. My fellow columnist Andy Moore recently wrote that a loss early in the season would strengthen the Blue Devils’ resolve and toughen them up for ACC play. When talented but untested players get knocked down, they often emerge better than before. When elite squads take punch after punch, however, recent history shows they can have difficult picking themselves up off the canvas.
Last year, preseason No. 2 Michigan State played four top-25 teams (as well as eventual national champion Connecticut) in the span of a month. The Spartans won only one of those five games and went on to post a pedestrian 9-9 record in the Big Ten. Granted, Michigan State suspended sharpshooting guard Korie Lucious for more than half of the conference season, and last year’s Big Ten was stronger top to bottom than the current ACC. Yet, the Spartans still had the trio of Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers and Draymond Green—comparable to Duke’s Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly. Despite Coach K’s uncanny ability to navigate his players through rough patches, a defeat or two in November could leave the Blue Devils—a team without a vocal leader whom players can rally around—vulnerable in January and beyond.
In the post-game press conference following Michigan State’s narrow loss to then-No.1 Duke last December, Tom Izzo was asked about his team’s brutal non-conference slate. “Who in the hell made up our schedule?” the veteran coach quipped. Yet, a note of incredulity could be heard under Izzo’s chuckle, leading one to believe that perhaps the coach had taken on more than his team could handle. Hopefully the Blue Devils are prepared for the setbacks that may befall them sooner rather than later.
Jeff Scholl is a Duke senior and former managing editor of The Chronicle’s sports section. His column runs on a bi-weekly basis.
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