As you flip through a supplement designed to make predictions about the upcoming season, allow me to make a somewhat self-defeating point: It’s utterly impossible to ever really predict what will define a year.
The 2010-11 season was supposed to be marked by the “Drive for Five,” or whatever those witty posters said. It was instead defined by the day-to-day injury reports about a toe. In 2009-10, it was supposed to be a wait-and-see year until Kyrie Irving came to save us. Instead, we saw an improbable championship. If you want to go back a bit further, to 2005-06, the year was supposed to be about the culmination of Sports Illustrated’s cover story “Can Anyone Stop Duke?” Instead, it was J.J. Redick walking off the Sweet 16 court in tears.
With all this in mind, though, we still love to play-act as amateur Digger Phelps’ from time-to-time. I certainly do! Here are eight predictions sure to (not) come true.
1. Krzyzewski will lean on his captains
Like many, many others in the sports world, Coach K reveals little when he talks. He doesn’t want a misplaced comment to become a national story, and he really doesn’t like having his words overshadow the team (passing Knight this season will most likely be torture for him).
This year, though, Krzyzewski has been relatively open, expressing some concerns about the current Blue Devils, most notably about his players’ maturity.
“Right now we won’t get as much help from a player like we got help from... Nolan or Kyle,” he said. “Our guys are still trying to figure out what they’re doing.”
This is obviously a very different situation from what we’ve seen over the past two seasons.
My prediction, then: Krzyzewski will push the hell out of Ryan Kelly, Miles Plumlee and Seth Curry early and often. The three captains will be thrown into the fire, and they’ll be counted on early to provide veteran guidance. And the team will be better for it.
2. Curry will be first team All-ACC
Austin Rivers has already been ordained the stud of this team by most media outlets. He has the pedigree, the smooth game and certainly the confidence.
However, if anything at all can be gleaned from the preseason, and that’s a huge “if”, Curry is Duke’s alpha dog. He completely took over the Blue-White game, showing his deft shooting touch by going 8-for-13 from the floor. He also showed an ability to get to the basket, as evidenced by his five trips to the free throw line. Against Bellarmine, he was similarly impressive, scoring 18 and dishing out five assists. And, of course, he showed flashes of brilliance last season, most notably against North Carolina.
Curry will succeed playing one of the most important positions in college sports this year. Expect to see him at the top of the ACC class at the end of the season.
3. Josh Hairston will lead the nation in masculine roars while someone else is dunking
This is a given. (Also, while watching the great hype man at Countdown to Craziness, I came to this conclusion: How great would it be to have Hairston follow you around and give a roar every time you ace a midterm, cap an all-nighter at Perkins or win an intramural softball game? If you’re reading, Josh, let’s work something out.)
4. Duke probably will not win the Maui Invitational
The bracket in the Invitational is insane this year: No. 11 Memphis, No. 13 Kansas, No. 17 UCLA and No. 18 Michigan will all be joining Duke in Hawaii. That may be one of the best early-season tournament fields ever.
With the odds so stacked against the young Blue Devils, it’s difficult to say that they can breeze through and take the title, as they have in many other early season tournaments in recent years. But even if they do lose, there is a silver lining: A loss will help the team.
In that same preseason press conference I mentioned above, Krzyzewski emphasized the way the Blue Devils’ leaders from last year had “their noses rubbed in the dirt” before they became captains. Losing strengthened them and toughened them—even if it seemed at the time like there couldn’t be anything worse than their “failure.” Likewise, a loss early this season to one of the best teams in the country would leave Duke chastened and hungry in the future. Not a bad thing to be when ACC season rolls around.
5. Smith will become a graduate assistant
After it becomes clear that the NBA lockout is going to take up the whole year, Smith will come back to Duke and coach. He will be the best graduate assistant since Jay Bilas.
6. Kelly will shave his beard into a Fu Manchu
This is more of a plea than a prediction.
7. Taking charges will be more of an issue than you think
In case you haven’t heard, the charge rule has changed. There is now a clearly-marked “restricted area arc” that has a three-foot radius, presumably because the NCAA finally decided referees do not, in fact, have superhuman vision. This arc restricts secondary defenders (or help defenders) from taking charges in the area, and it could limit the number of charges the Blue Devils take this year. For a team that traditionally excels in this area of the game, this rules change will certainly be something to watch.
8. Against all odds, this will be a fun year
The Blue Devils aren’t going to have all the pressure that comes with being a front-runner. That honor goes to the boys in light blue down the road. Instead, Duke will get to play the role of young up-and-comers, with few of the expectations that came last year.
That’s okay. It’s much more fun to win as an underdog than as a favorite.
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