Duke men’s basketball has reached its second Final Four in four seasons, and will take on No. 1-seed Houston to secure a spot in the championship game. The Blue Zone breaks down the matchup with an overview of the Cougars, key stat, X-factor and three keys to the game:

Overview

2023-24 record: 32-5, 15-3 in the Big 12

2024-25 record: 34-4, 19-1 in the Big 12

Head coach: Kelvin Sampson

Last meeting: 54-51, Duke, March 29, 2024

For the second-straight season, Duke and Houston will meet in the dance. The Cougars, making their second Final Four under head coach Kelvin Sampson, look for revenge after a Sweet 16 battle last season that ended in the Blue Devils’ favor. Duke and Houston have several similarities — the two teams went 19-1 in their respective conferences, winning their respective tournaments. These are the two most efficient squads in the country, according to both Bart Torvik and KenPom, and that is thanks largely to excellent 3-point shooting combined with lockdown defense.

Houston’s excellent roster begins with the dominant backcourt trio of L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan. All three shoot above 41% from 3-point range and average above 11 points per game. Sharp averages over a steal per game, as do bench guards Terrance Arceneaux and Mylik Wilson. In Houston’s last 15 games, one of Cryer, Sharp or Uzan has led the Cougars in scoring, providing the backbone of the 10th-ranked offense in the country, according to KenPom.

The above graph from barttorvik.com plots each Division I team by their offensive 3-point percentage (horizontal axis) compared to their 3-point percentage allowed (vertical axis). Duke and Houston, circled in the top right, are elite at both making and defending threes. To counter the Wildcats’ sharpshooters, the Blue Devils boast four players in the rotation — Isaiah Evans, Sion James, Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor — who shoot above 40% from outside the arc. Much of this production comes from Flagg — a 37.4% 3-point shooter in his own right — who always seems to find the open man on the perimeter.

Duke’s perimeter defense is coming off arguably its finest performance of the season against Alabama in the Elite Eight, where the Crimson Tide cashed in on just 8-of-32 3-point attempts. Houston did even better against Tennessee, allowing just a 5-of-29 clip from outside the arc. Simply put, the 3-point battle will be a test of strength versus strength for both teams on both ends of the floor. If the Blue Devils, who attempt 26.4 threes per game (compared to the Wildcats’ 20.6), can hold an edge on the perimeter offensively, the national semifinal will likely be their game to lose. -Walley

X-factor

Duke: Khaman Maluach

‘Man Man’ was the main man in Duke’s Elite Eight face-off versus Alabama. The 7-foot-2 center stepped up when Flagg had an unusual off day to dominate the boards. Grabbing nine rebounds and punching two blocks, Maluach locked up a top college basketball offense to one of its lowest scoring games. 

Through the rounds of March Madness, Maluach has proven that he thrives on competition. In the Blue Devils' most recent matchup, the South Sudan native added double digits on the scoreboard and was one rebound away from clinching a double-double. His scoring efficiency positions him as one of Duke’s most reliable offensive weapons, shooting 100% for field goals in the opening two rounds before posting an 80% rate in the Elite Eight. His dominance isn’t just notable, it’s historic. Entering the Final Four, Maluach holds the highest field goal percentage at this point in the tournament, 87%, since 1985. His athleticism outshines comparisons to other players at the center position, and his presence in the paint dominates both sides of the floor. 

Deeper than the stat line, Maluach’s chemistry with his teammates multiplies his impact. The alley-oop power play has become a signature weapon of Duke’s offensive performance — one that opponents have struggled to hamper. As the Final Four looms, the center looks to go back-to-back on the boards: extending his double-digit scoring streak to elevate his offensive efficiency. So far, no team has been able to find an answer to slowing the momentum of Maluach. If Houston follows the trend, it’s likely the freshman will be the key to pushing Duke into the title game.

Houston: L.J. Cryer

Cougars are ambush predators. They stalk their prey before striking to attack. On the basketball court, the Houston Cougars embrace a similar approach — thriving beyond the arc to lead the country in 3-point shooting while swishing 39.8% of their deep shots. L.J. Cryer masters this attack.

The senior has built a reputation as an elite scorer, averaging 15.4 points per game while knocking down 41.9% of his shots from three. His ability to swing momentum with his shooting has made him a critical piece of Houston’s lineup. However, in the two most recent matchups, opponents have nearly cut his efficiency in half. Against Purdue, the Katy, Texas, native was held to five points and a 15.4% shooting efficiency. Without the buckets from Cryer, Houston struggled to secure an Elite Eight bid with a tight two-point margin. Tennessee followed suit, holding Cryer to 25% from deep. Cryer adapted to make an unexpected impact on the boards to grab a season-high seven rebounds, while offensively forcing shots up in the paint and at the free-throw line. Despite hitting just two 3-pointers, Cryer added 17 tallies to the Cougars’ score.

Facing Duke’s elite defense, Cryer must handle intense on-ball pressure and overcome last year’s struggles, where he committed a team-high four turnovers against Duke. The challenge is even greater this year as the Blue Devil freshman squad looks to test his abilities. He’s proved that even if shots don’t fall, he can still be an effective difference maker. But in the Final Four, an efficient performance backed by experience will be critical if Cryer wants to be the steady force that sends Houston to the championship. -Lucy Glynn

3 keys 

Drive to the rim: Houston, while a capable offensive team, prides itself on a defense that has allowed the fewest points per game in college basketball. In their Elite Eight game against Tennessee, the Cougars held the No. 2 seed to an almost unfathomable 28.8% from the field and 17.2% beyond the arc. Although the Volunteers certainly missed some open shots, an inability to create quality looks plagued them throughout the contest. 

Although Houston boasts two Big 12 All-Defensive names in Roberts and Tugler, a pair of 6-foot-8 forwards who patrol the paint, perhaps no other team is better equipped to match their tenacity than the Blue Devils. Duke’s plethora of off-the-dribble creators with size, from Kon Knueppel to Flagg, ensures that the Cougars won’t be able to leave a defender on an island — forcing the defense to collapse and leaving wide-open shooters on the perimeter. And if the Blue Devils knock down a few attempts from deep, driving lanes may suddenly appear and open up the floor entirely. This “drive-and-kick” style of offense is one that head coach Jon Scheyer’s group has employed throughout the season, and against Houston, it will need its most masterful performance yet. 

Crash the glass: Facing Duke’s towering rotation, the Cougars seem rather undersized in comparison. Roberts, Tugler and forward Ja’Vier Francis are the sole players on the Midwest champions who receive regular minutes and stand above 6-foot-7. However, Houston more than makes up for its lack of stature with a ferocious and opportunistic rebounding focus; across its last three games, it has out-rebounded opponents 43-24 on the offensive glass, an area in which the Blue Devils have somewhat struggled. Touting supersized athletes at nearly every position, Duke has all the tools to shut down the Cougars’ affinity for second-chance opportunities. It just can’t underestimate the physicality of its opponent.

Stay out of foul trouble: With Brown and Flagg healed from their respective ailments, the East Region champions are healthier than ever — a luxury that shouldn’t be taken for granted at this juncture in the season. However, their or any other Blue Devils’ availability throughout the game is far from guaranteed for one pesky reason: foul trouble. Given his team’s considerable depth, Scheyer hasn’t often had to worry about protecting players from picking up another foul. Now, the stakes are higher than ever; Duke cannot afford to sit its top players against its most formidable competition yet.

In the second rivalry game against North Carolina, the Blue Devils got a glimpse into what that reality may be like. After picking up three quick fouls, Flagg was forced to watch most of the first half from the bench, as teammates such as Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor stepped up into expanded roles. The incomplete Blue Devil team managed to hold on despite Flagg’s absence — and as demonstrated in the ACC Tournament — it is one still capable of handling quality opponents. Yet, Duke shouldn’t be eager to repeat those performances. Houston is leagues ahead of any team the Blue Devils have run into since the beginning of conference play, not to mention the significant momentum Sampson’s group is riding after vanquishing Tennessee. Simply put, Duke will need its best on the floor playing as freely as possible, as often as possible. -Alex Min