In a Final Four matchup between two elite No. 1-seeds, Duke and Houston will vie for a spot in the national championship. Our beats predict who will win the Saturday night clash:
Ranjan Jindal: Duke 80-76
I think this could be a relatively high-scoring especially if the Blue Devils pick up the pace on offense and try to score in transition. Houston is admittedly the team I had the most pause on for the Blue Devils, because the Cougars' defense is relatively similar to Clemson and Wake Forest — teams that made Duke uncomfortable on offense at times. That said, the size difference is the Blue Devils’ biggest advantage in my opinion, and if they run Houston off the 3-point line — similar to the Alabama game — Jon Scheyer’s bunch will be playing for a sixth banner Monday.
Dom Fenoglio: Duke 78-73
The key to this game will be the first five and last five minutes. Duke is not nearly as comfortable playing from behind and needs to avoid digging itself too big a hole early. And as the contest nears its end, the Blue Devils will need to execute on offense at a high level — something that has plagued them at times in their losses. I think Duke is more talented, but Houston will not go away. In the end, I have confidence in the best player in the country, Cooper Flagg, delivering once more.
Rodrigo Amare: Duke 77-70
Houston basketball excels at making its opponents uncomfortable with stifling defense and unrelenting physicality. But this year, the Cougars have added stellar 3-point shooting, with the team converting 39.8% of its shots from beyond the arc — the second-best rate in the nation. The prospect of playing a highly physical and elite sharpshooting squad should rightly terrify Blue Devil fans, and this contest will likely be much closer than Duke’s other wins in the NCAA Tournament. That being said, I don’t think Houston has the positional size to match up with the Blue Devils for 40 minutes; each of the Cougars’ three guards stands under 6-foot-5, while all of Duke’s backcourt players tower over that figure. In the Blue Devils’ Elite Eight win against Alabama, Duke’s size advantage was critical against the Crimson Tide’s smaller guards, who terrorized opponents all season but could not muster much offense against Scheyer’s squad. What’s more, Houston doesn’t boast a rotation player taller than 6-foot-8, meaning that Khaman Maluach will have at least six inches on each opponent he faces in the paint. While the Cougars’ unique play style will make the game a close contest, I think Duke’s size advantage pushes it over the edge and into the national championship game.
Abby DiSalvo: Duke 80-72
It’s lucky that stats never tell the whole story in March, because Duke and Houston look equally dangerous on paper. This game won’t come down to major discrepancies in shooting, fouls or turnovers — it will come down to chemistry. The Cougars have a seeming edge, with four returning starters and 73.1% of production coming from players who have already seen an NCAA Tournament. Houston draws power from that experience, playing with unparalleled confidence and a stifling physicality. The Blue Devils look more like a fountain of youth, counting on different superstar freshmen to make well-timed splashes throughout the season. However, I think it’s that exact unpredictability that gives them an unquantifiable edge. We simply haven’t seen everything this Duke team has to offer — its young players have proven that they grow with every game, and there’s no reason to doubt that they will step up once again in San Antonio.
Andrew Long: Duke 70-66
Conventional wisdom suggests this matchup will be decided by whether Duke’s red-hot offense can overmatch Houston’s stout defense. But I think the real matchup to watch is the Cougars’ excellent 3-point shooting against the Blue Devils’ defense and size. Neither team is turnover prone and both play very efficient basketball, but Houston’s slow pace is designed to create long possessions that end with well-crafted, open threes and offensive rebounds. Duke has shown throughout this tournament (especially against Alabama) that it can take advantage of its size on the perimeter to force tough shots — and is okay with teams shooting them. With a healthy Maliq Brown and a confident Khaman Maluach, I also have confidence in Duke to keep the glass competitive. I think the way Kelvin Sampson coaches this Cougars team and how hard they play will keep Saturday’s game tight throughout, but Houston will have just as much trouble cracking Duke’s defense as the Blue Devils will cracking the Cougars’. Expect an anxious viewing, but one that should see Duke squeak by and reach its first national title game since 2015.
Sophie Levenson: Duke 82-71
This is Duke’s year. It’s special. And Houston, which could not stop the Blue Devils last year, is not going to stop Jon Scheyer now. I have to echo Abby’s take about chemistry; this is a chalky Final Four, so Duke has no chance of taking on an underdog. But Houston doesn’t seem to have the kind of energy that has carried the Blue Devils this far.
I’m still looking at Tyrese Proctor to lead Duke mentally through this game — and I expect him to continue on his hot streak from the arc. If the junior point guard is on and the freshmen play their part, like they have all season, the Cougars will not end this Duke run. It won’t be easy, but a ticket to the national championship is for sale, and I think Scheyer’s group is ready to buy it.
Caleb Dudley: Duke 71-68
I can’t say much about this game that hasn’t been said already: it features two of the best overall units in the sport, and is sure to contain some elite defensive intensity. I do think Duke holds a major advantage in its size, especially in the frontcourt. The Blue Devils will certainly welcome any second chance they can grab off the glass, and the performance of Maluach — who has been spotty at times on the boards — will be paramount. The increased availability of Brown should allow Scheyer to have some more options on the defensive end, where Duke will have plenty of trouble containing a Houston offense that is much improved over last year. But if the Blue Devils can win inside and run the Cougars off the 3-point line, I see them narrowly advancing to the national title game.
Rachael Kaplan: Houston 73-70
This one will be tough. These are the two best teams, according to KenPom. Duke’s top offense against Houston’s top defense. This is by far the most well-rounded team the Blue Devils have faced. It will be a hard-fought, defensive game that will likely be decided by who gets hotter from three. Both are top 12 in 3-point percentage. While Duke played incredible defense against Alabama, and that game wasn’t close, the Crimson Tide missed some uncharacteristic shots. The Cougars are less streaky. While the Blue Devils have the clear size advantage, Houston ranks 11th in offensive rebounding percentage. We saw how Duke fared in a physical matchup against Arizona. It got in foul trouble early, and relied on Flagg’s heroics. It was able to maintain an ever shrinking lead. That won’t be the case in the Final Four. I think the bigs (and potentially Flagg) get in foul trouble again and the Cougars make enough tough shots to come out on top.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Sign up for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.
Rachael Kaplan is a Trinity senior and a senior editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Ranjan Jindal is a Trinity junior and sports editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Sophie Levenson is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Rodrigo Amare is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Abby DiSalvo is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Andrew Long is a Trinity senior and recruitment/social chair of The Chronicle's 120th volume. He was previously sports editor for Volume 119.