The best defense is a great offense. No, wait, the best offense is a great defense.
Whichever way one chooses to interpret the saying, Saturday’s Final Four Duke vs. Houston matchup will be best on best. The Blue Devils boast the top-ranked scoring unit in the country according to KenPom, while the Cougars line up as the most efficient defensive team.
The first thing to know about Houston is that it loves to pressure the ball, ranking top 30 in both steal and block percentage. The Cougars often blitz — or double-team — ball handlers coming off a screen or big men catching the ball in the post. With eight players averaging at least 15 minutes per game, head coach Kelvin Sampson makes sure to rotate consistently to keep the aggression coming in waves.
What separates this Houston team from those of years past, however, is its offensive prowess. Besides their often-discussed 39.8% 3-point percentage, which is top five nationally, the Cougars are a top-15 team in offensive rebounding percentage and have four players averaging in double figures.
To this point, Duke has faced formidable challengers, including an Arizona team it had seen before and a high-powered Alabama squad coming off a historic outing. But Houston is a unique opponent, and the Blue Devils will need to prepare for the Cougars on both sides of the ball to advance to the national championship.
Why Houston can win
Duke’s season low output on offense came Jan. 25 in a road game against Wake Forest. A defensive stalwart, the Demon Deacons are similar to Houston in a few ways. They also apply significant pressure and look to turn opponents over. More importantly, they play slow.
In the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, the Cougars had just 57 and 59 possessions, respectively. To put that in perspective, the Crimson Tide average 75.2 possessions per game, and the Blue Devils average 65.9. Houston looks to squeeze its opponent like an anaconda, slowly tightening its grip while leaving no room to run away.
That also means the Cougars are comfortable having long possessions themselves. In fact, they average 19.6 seconds per offensive set, ranking near the longest in the country. This plays well against Duke’s own defense, which excels at forcing opponents into bad shots at the end of the shot clock. When the Blue Devils are at their best, they snuff out offensive schemes and force their opponents into isolation as the shot clock runs down.
But, Houston is capable of winning in one-on-one spots. Junior Milos Uzan has a handle and a shot, L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp are experienced guards that play bigger than their size and J’Wan Roberts is fundamentally sound in the post. Watch here as the big man backs down a Tennessee defender as the shot clocks ticks under 10 seconds, then gets to his spot and drop steps for a left-handed hook.
Freshman Khaman Maluach has been a revelation thus far in March Madness, but he may struggle to follow the feet of Roberts in the post — or to keep him off the offensive glass. Should that happen, or if head coach Jon Scheyer simply decides to avoid the circumstance by doubling, the Cougars will light it up from deep.
Perhaps the biggest reason for Houston’s 3-point rate is the shots it chooses to take. Sampson makes sure that his teams know the top goal is to get to the basket; much like Duke’s Sion James, all of the Cougar guards can get downhill with a full head of steam. But they also excel at finding open space on the perimeter when the defense collapses. Watch here as Sharp does not hesitate when a failed double-team leaves him open on the wing.
Back to Houston’s stifling defense, though. When opponents do end up scoring, it feels like a Herculean effort to put even two points on the board. Just ask the Volunteers, who only scored 15 points in the first half of the Elite Eight. Their first points of the game came off a missed free throw, after the Cougars blocked a shot and forced Tennessee to bleed the shot clock all the way down to zero. Jahmai Mashack made a tough jumper in the paint, but the play arguably gave more momentum to Houston.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Sign up for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.
The first five minutes will be key for the Cougars. If they can get off to a hot start and force the Blue Devils to find an answer, the game can be played at their pace. Houston is capable of keeping the score low and close, and has the experience to execute in crunch time.
Why Duke can win
The two main keys to beating an elite defense are almost universal: get out in transition (see North Carolina’s near comeback in the ACC Tournament semifinals) and crash the offensive glass (see Clemson’s win against Duke Feb. 8).
The Blue Devils should absolutely look to attack in transition Saturday, especially with their size advantage in the backcourt. A familiar foe, Arizona, nearly unseated the Cougars in the Big 12 championship, and its second-half run was spurred by transition buckets. Watch the Wildcats race ahead in transition for a bucket, then do so again about 30 seconds later.
But besting Houston will require more than just winning on the margins. Duke’s halfcourt execution — which has propelled it to this point — will need to be sharper than ever, and its star Cooper Flagg will need to be a playmaker.
In the Blue Devils first matchup with the Tar Heels, a home game that was over in the first 10 minutes, Flagg busted head coach Hubert Davis’ gameplan by dissecting double-teams with passes over the top. As he will likely be a primary ball handler Saturday, Flagg will once again need to use his 6-foot-9 frame to find the open man in the event of a double. If he can, Houston may be forced to change its coverage schemes, which would open paths for him to score.
Outside of Flagg, Duke’s backcourt will need to limit turnovers and dribble productively. One method is to retreat and find an outlet who can look for the open big rolling inside. Another is to use a quick burst to fly by the big blitzing and create a four-on-three opportunity. Watch here as Arizona employs the first strategy, and then Tennessee uses the second.
The Blue Devils also have reason to believe they can hold the Cougars in check. As strong as Houston’s roster is, the team only shoots 48.4% inside the arc. Duke has the length on the perimeter to dissuade shooters from lining one up and forcing them into the trees. The key will be for Maluach and Patrick Ngongba II to stay out of foul trouble while contesting as many inside shots as possible.
Likewise, Flagg’s playing time is essential. In the two games mentioned earlier — the close win against North Carolina and the loss to the Tigers — Flagg was absent for the former and inefficient in the latter. He does not need a 42-point outing like he had against Notre Dame earlier this year, but he needs to be the one to force Houston into changing its defensive shape.
One final piece of support in favor of the Blue Devils: Their talent may very well be overwhelming. Freshman Kon Knueppel is a bonafide bucket, and Tyrese Proctor has looked like a NBA-caliber guard in March Madness. The Cougars can press, contest and double as much as they want, but if those two are making shots, Duke will win.
***
All four teams left in the NCAA Tournament are historically great, and college basketball fans are in for quite a show. If they’re lucky, they may finally get the answer to the age-old question of offense vs. defense.
Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.