In a Tobacco Road Rivalry meeting of epic proportions, No. 2 seed Duke will take on No. 3 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16. Ahead of tipoff Friday afternoon, The Chronicle’s beats give their predictions for the matchup:
Martin Heintzelman: Duke 56-54
Despite my harping on how low-scoring the previous meeting between these two teams would be, it was not nearly as painful as I feared. For that reason, I have elected to raise my prediction for this one, albeit only slightly. The Tar Heels return both forward Alyssa Ustby and Reniya Kelly, two players they were lacking when Duke hosted them towards the end of the ACC regular season, and that will be a significant advantage. Still, I think the Blue Devils are in a better place now than they were at the last meeting, with a winning streak dating back through the conference tournament. Duke has looked good these past few games, and will likely welcome back forward Toby Fournier after a second-round NCAA Tournament game without her. Look for the Blue Devils to snatch this one, but it will probably be a nail-biter against a very tough defensive team that plays similarly to how Duke does.
Colton Schwabe: North Carolina 57-55
Sometimes it feels like the only thing in life that is guaranteed is death, taxes and Kara Lawson’s team disrupting its opposition’s offensive plans. After Duke held Lehigh to the second lowest scoring total in March Madness history, the Blue Devils found a way to string together a second half comeback against Oregon — while holding the Ducks to 53 points — to earn their position in the Sweet 16. Now, Duke gears up to take on North Carolina for the third rivalry game this season after splitting the first two. In that first half against Oregon, the Blue Devil offense faltered, and if it wasn’t for Ashlon Jackson’s 20-point second-half performance, Duke’s season would be over. Though the Blue Devils have grown substantially since their first meeting with the Tar Heels, nightmares of Lawson’s team’s 46-point performance through four quarters and an overtime period raise a couple questions about the scoring output the Duke will bring to Birmingham Friday. Even with the Blue Devils holding North Carolina to under 60 points, there is no guarantee that they will be able to outscore their rivals from down the road, and I fear that, with the season on the line, history may come to repeat itself in the worst way for Duke.
Tyler Walley: Duke 58-54
Duke beat North Carolina by 15 the last time these two teams played, but that was in Cameron Indoor and the Tar Heels were without two starters. With both teams healthy for the most part, I don’t expect either unit to crack 60 points. The frontcourt of Maria Gakdeng and Ustby will be a challenge for the Blue Devils, as will the shot-making of Lexi Donarski and Lanie Grant. However, as much as North Carolina is a tough matchup for Duke, I think the reverse is even more true. The Blue Devils are extremely difficult to stop when Ashlon Jackson is shooting well — as evidenced by the third quarter against Oregon — and having Fournier back would bring some much-needed size against Gakdeng and Ustby. Also, it’s a simple question of momentum: Duke is on an eight-game winning streak and has allowed 60 points defensively just once in that stretch. In the third edition of this rivalry game, the Blue Devils will surge again in the third quarter to reach the Elite Eight for the first time under head coach Kara Lawson.
Alex Min: Duke 60-59
When these rivals clashed only weeks ago, Duke’s improved late-game execution delivered a victory that injected new life into the then-No. 16 team in the country. Since defeating North Carolina, Lawson’s bunch has unleashed its best basketball yet — up until the Blue Devils stumbled against Round of 32 opponent Oregon. In its battle with the Ducks, the No. 2 seed sorely missed Fournier’s offensive production, ultimately requiring a heroic second-half from Jackson to escape the upset scare. Against the defensive-minded and opportunistic Tar Heels, Duke will not have the same margin of error. Yet, its dominant stretch through the regular season’s final games and the ACC Tournament possesses a far more meaningful sample size, especially with Fournier back in the mix. While this Sweet Sixteen matchup will be defined by defense and physicality, I expect the Blue Devils’ efficiency and timely shot-making to again carry them past North Carolina in a contest as close as can be.
Sarah Muir: North Carolina 63-61
There’s no doubt that Duke and North Carolina will put on a show in their first ever meeting in the NCAA Tournament, but history tells us that show will happen mostly on the defensive end. The Blue Devils have caught offensive fire like never before in the postseason, from Oluchi Okananwa’s stardom in the ACC Tournament to Ashlon Jackson’s third-quarter heroics in Duke’s second round contest with Oregon. The problem? These are sparks, not a rhythm. Duke has relied on a magical performance from one of its stars in many of its matchups so far this March, and the Tar Heels have a knack for bringing Kara Lawson’s group down to Earth. None of the Blue Devils scored more than 10 points in their first matchup with North Carolina in January. In editions of the rivalry in Lawson’s tenure, this matchup has deteriorated into a defensive slugfest. Banghart will have the luxury of leaning on senior guard Alyssa Ustby who, after returning from an injury that kept her out for the end of the regular season and a meeting with Duke in February, will bring needed experience in a high-pressure atmosphere. Ultimately, I think the Tar Heels are a force to be reckoned with on either end of the floor, and a sensational season for Duke ends in the Sweet 16.
Lucy Glynn: Duke 59-55
The rivalry is tied as the Blue Devils and Tar Heels touch down in Birmingham, Ala. Each team looks to advance to the Elite Eight, but the depth of Duke’s bench will punch its ticket to the next round. Lawson’s team is currently on a streak of dominance — overcoming regular-season losses to Louisville, Notre Dame and N.C. State with ACC tournament wins. North Carolina will become another Blue Devil redemption. Although they already notched a win against the Tar Heels at home, star players Ustby and Kelly sat out due to injury. Duke will likely find victory led by a resurgence of Fournier and a hopeful repetition of Jackson’s Oregon takedown in the third and fourth quarters. Don’t get me wrong, it will be a competitive back-and-forth matchup with a low-scoring opening half and a tense third quarter. The Blue Devils’ defensive tenacity and effective transitions will allow them to overtake North Carolina and advance to the Elite Eight.
Ashley Currie: Duke 63-59
After losing a hard fought battle in overtime during their first meeting with North Carolina, the Blue Devils took care of business in Cameron Indoor Stadium to tie up this season’s contest. While the Tar Heels are a dominant team that has amassed great wins over the course of this season, there are two key factors favoring Duke’s victory. First, it won the ACC Tournament and has an eight game win streak. The momentum Lawson’s squad has is tough to beat. Especially given the return of freshman superstar Fournier after her absence in the Round of 32 game against Oregon, all of the Blue Devils are healthy and ready to take on their rival in the heated March Madness Sweet 16 game. However, Fournier cannot be the only player that spurs Duke forward. Lawson will need other players like Jackson, Reigan Richardson and Oluchi Okananwa to step up and play dominant games. While this game may be low scoring, if the Blue Devils come out from the beginning with a tenacious attitude, tough defense and an equal level of scoring from several players, they can marginally defeat the Tar Heels — they already proved in the ACC Tournament that Duke in the postseason is a force to be reckoned with.
Elle Chavis: Duke 68-64
The Blue Devils have flipped a switch in March. The last loss that this team suffered was to Louisville on February 20. Simply put, Duke has quickly mastered the art of learning from its mistakes and rising to the occasion. It has also helped that Lawson’s squad played familiar rivals in its ACC Tournament run, and Thursday’s matchup against the Tar Heels is no different. The late-game momentum that Duke exhibited against Oregon will also certainly carry over into its game against North Carolina. Richardson and Jackson have seemingly found their confidence as the veteran backbone of a relatively young Duke team while bench supporters like Oluchi Okananwa or Toby Fournier add energy and offensive production to the mix. Look for a scrappy, defense-heavy battle when these two teams matchup, but ultimately, the Blue Devils will ride the hot streak they’ve had since late February and earn the spot in the Elite Eight.
Lilah Gorfain: Duke 61-59
This one’s going to be a nail-biter, but the Blue Devils are going to come out on top. Duke proved its tournament prowess in the ACC bracket, but never got to spill any North Carolina blood in Greensboro. Last time Duke faced the Tar Heels, they were out two starters and seemed to flounder, losing the game by 15 points. The Blue Devils’ energy and pace will carry them through this game, as well as their deep bench. With gritty players on both sides of the starting line, Duke can keep that momentum and bring out big scorers that don’t start. With two top-defense teams, neither will rack up points — but look for a neck-and-neck battle on the court for defensive control. The Blue Devils are Elite Eight bound, and this rivalry matchup is going to be good.
Myles Powicki: North Carolina 57-52
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For those who enjoy defensive slugfests, this Sweet 16 matchup will be must-see TV. The Blue Devils are hot – they haven’t lost since dropping a late-February matchup with Louisville, while the Tar Heels are not, having dropped their final two matchups in the regular season before exiting the conference tournament in the semifinals. Duke is the higher seed and came out on top in the two sides’ final meeting. Those signs point to Lawson’s team advancing to the Elite Eight. However, the Tar Heels have recently regained outstanding forward Alyssa Ustby, and the star had her best game since her injury against West Virginia in the second round. In my eyes, Ustby is a true difference maker, especially against a team with a younger frontcourt, like the Blue Devils. I think that for the majority of the game, Duke will be ahead and Ustby will be limited, but in the closing minutes, the graduate from Rochester, Minn., is going to get a few key buckets down low, and eliminate her team’s rivals.
Martin Heintzelman is a Trinity junior and Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.