With Duke women’s basketball hurtling towards the postseason, the Blue Zone takes a look at what it will take for the Blue Devils to make a run through the ACC Tournament:
After another successful season under head coach Kara Lawson, No. 11 Duke has positioned itself among the premier teams in the nation. Nowhere has that been more evident than in the Blue Devils’ play against a highly competitive ACC, where Lawson’s team amassed a conference record of 14-4.
Following a victory against No. 22 Florida State Sunday, Duke will enter the ACC Tournament as the third seed, meaning it will begin its tournament play Friday in the quarterfinals. With the tournament taking place at First Horizon Coliseum in Greensboro, N.C., here are the opponents the Blue Devils could face on their quest for their ninth conference championship.
Quarterfinals
While just three wins separate Duke from ACC title glory, each round will prove highly difficult thanks to a conference that will likely send no less than eight teams to the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils will play their first match Friday at 7:30 p.m., facing off against the winner of Louisville’s second-round matchup with either Clemson or Stanford.
The most likely opponent for Duke here is the Cardinals, a team that has proven itself among the best in the conference despite being seeded at No. 6. The Cardinals boast a balanced scoring attack starring freshman guard Tajianna Roberts and senior guard Jayda Curry. This will certainly be a tough matchup for Lawson’s squad, as Louisville handed Duke its only loss in Cameron Indoor Stadium this season in a Feb. 20 matchup. Curry scored a season-high 24 points in that game, so the Blue Devils will need to especially course-correct when it comes to slowing her down.
Semifinals
If Duke can get by Louisville, it will likely have gone from the frying pan into the fire. That is because the Blue Devils’ next opponent will likely be No. 2-seed Notre Dame, a team that has positioned itself among the best in the country. The Fighting Irish are led by National Player of the Year contender Hannah Hidalgo, who has averaged 24.2 points, 3.8 assists and 3.7 steals per game this season. Her supporting cast hasn’t been too shabby, either; ultra-efficient guard Olivia Miles has been a worthy co-pilot to Hidalgo, while Sonia Citron and Liatu King have also bolstered a dynamic scoring attack.
When Duke traveled to Notre Dame, it was able to keep the contest competitive through the first half, largely thanks to a solid showing from guard Taina Mair. However, the Blue Devils weren’t able to overcome 19 turnovers, nor were they able to effectively capitalize on the Fighting Irish’s 18 in a 64-49 loss. On a neutral court, Notre Dame will almost certainly be favored, but unpredictability could be the key for Duke to solve this tough matchup.
Championship
Should the Blue Devils make it this far, there are a few teams they could find themselves competing against. The most obvious of these is top-seeded N.C. State, a group with as much momentum as any in the country. The Wolfpack are a deep, experienced roster led by All-American candidate Aziaha James. The senior guard scored 36 points in N.C. State’s Feb. 3 win against Duke in Raleigh, which included 15 in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, that contest was a very close one, and it stands to reason that a neutral-site matchup would prove more even. The Blue Devils’ ACC Tournament hopes ended against the Wolfpack last season, so they certainly will be playing with revenge on their mind if they face them.
Fellow local rival and No. 5-seed North Carolina could also be a threat to get to the championship game on the opposite side of the bracket from Duke. The Tar Heels have dropped their last two regular season games, which included a 68-53 loss at the hands of the Blue Devils. However, they were without two of their premier starters, guards Reniya Kelly and Alyssa Ustby. With head coach Courtney Banghart optimistic to see Kelly and Ustby back in action for the postseason, North Carolina could make a run this weekend despite having to play in the second round.
The final major contender to make the championship game is No. 4-seed Florida State. Led by star Ta’Niya Latson, the leading scorer in Division I women’s basketball this season, the Seminoles narrowly earned a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. In the relatively unlikely scenario of a Duke-Florida State championship matchup, the Blue Devils would likely be favored. When Duke went south for its final regular season contest, Latson was held to 3-of-21 shooting and the Blue Devils earned a decisive 71-57 win.
Duke has all but punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament, and is likely to host first and second-round matches for the first time since 2023. However, an ACC title would be arguably the biggest accomplishment of the Lawson era. If everything falls their way, the Blue Devils might be able to revel in that glory before chasing a much bigger — and much tougher — honor in an NCAA Tournament win.
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