After a rivalry win against No. 3-seed North Carolina, Duke will take on top-seeded South Carolina with a chance to go to the Final Four on the line. The Blue Zone has an overview of the Gamecocks, as well as a key stat, X-Factor and 3 keys to victory for each squad:
Overview
Head coach: Dawn Staley
2023-24 record: 38-0, 16-0 in SEC
2024-25 record: 33-3, 15-1 in SEC
Last meeting: 81-70, South Carolina, Dec. 5, 2024
The Blue Devils have earned themselves a tall order Sunday as they get ready to take on the No. 1-seeded Gamecocks in Duke’s first Elite Eight run since 2013. The Blue Devils meet South Carolina for the second time this season after falling in an uncharacteristically high-scoring 81-70 contest late last year in Columbia, S.C.
Albeit coming off a national championship run, the Gamecocks aren’t unconquerable; South Carolina narrowly escaped its 71-67 Sweet 16 barnburner over Maryland en route to the matchup against head coach Kara Lawson’s team. Staley’s team’s three losses this season come from UCLA, Texas and UConn who all were ranked in the AP Poll’s top 10 at the time of the Gamecocks’ defeat.
A deep and versatile roster strategically developed by Staley stands as the team’s greatest strength. South Carolina’s 41.5 points per game off the bench represents the most in Division I women’s basketball. Duke, though, sits at the second slot in bench production with 31.6 points per game and plays a style of basketball designed to disrupt offensive plans.
The Blue Devils have allowed an average of 38.7 points per game through their first three games in this tournament and look to limit the Gamecock offense just enough to be able to come away with the upset. It will take a potent performance on both sides of the ball for Duke if Lawson’s squad wants to come away with the victory and make a run to the Final Four for the first time in nearly 20 years.
Key stat
As obvious as it may sound, a Duke victory is dependent on South Carolina’s scoring output. The Gamecocks’ 42.4 points in the paint per game lead the nation, and in two of the team's three losses this season, it was their victorious opponents who led the game in the statistic. In the two teams’ December matchup, it was South Carolina’s size which proved to be the game-changer at Colonial Life Arena. The Gamecocks outscored the Blue Devils in the paint 48-34 on 57.4% shooting from the field. A Duke upset Sunday would require — through strong defense or sheer luck — an annulment of the effectiveness of the Gamecock size advantage to keep the battle in the paint from getting out of hand. -Colton Schwabe
3 Keys
Don’t heed the seed: South Carolina may be the No. 1 seed right now, and there is no doubt it would be a formidable opponent for Duke with a 10-game win streak under its belt. However, as with every season, the second round alone has had its fair share of upsets: Kansas State’s nailbiter 80-79 victory over Kentucky, Tennessee’s 82-67 win against Ohio State and Ole Miss’s 69-63 performance against Baylor. The lesson? Although losses have been hard to come by for the Gamecocks, think twice before betting against the underdog — especially when it’s the top two seeds settling in for a dogfight, and one of them is led by Kara Lawson.
Don’t rely on Gamecock mistakes: The Blue Devils’ performance against No. 10 Oregon got off to a sloppy start without forward Toby Fournier, with a paltry two points in the game’s first five minutes. As the game progressed, however, Duke’s offense settled in for the game, closing the gap and walking away with a six-point win. Contrast that win with the first round, when the Blue Devils dominated 15th-seeded Lehigh from the beginning, building on an early lead thanks to — at least in part — the Mountain Hawks’ 17 first-half turnovers. Duke made full use of Lehigh’s fumbling, scoring 16 points off turnovers in the first two quarters. Without the tailwinds of mistakes, however, the Blue Devils’ win would have arguably been narrower and lacked the consistent pressure of an early lead. Against a peer in a high-stakes game, betting the other team slips up is a questionable strategy at best.
Don’t give away free throws: Denial is the name of the game. Duke has kept even with opponents at the charity stripe this season, shooting 10.8 free throws per game to 10.3 for opponents. Its percentage, however, has lagged 68.5% to 71.3%. In a close game, it might be something for the defense to watch out for: South Carolina has averaged 13.2 free throws per game — 4.4 more than its adversaries. The Gamecocks’ free throw percentage also outpaces that of the Blue Devils’ average foe this season, at 76.5%. Topline numbers might not tell the whole story, but they’re still something to watch out for as the seconds count down to the final buzzer. -Samanyu Gangappa
X-Factor
Duke: Reigan Richardson
In the first-ever NCAA Tournament matchup between rivals Duke and North Carolina, senior guard Reigan Richardson had her worst offensive performance of the year. The veteran leader shot 1-of-11 — just 9.1% — with a 3-pointer to extend the Blue Devil lead in the middle of the third quarter as her lone make. Richardson’s offensive struggles were a microcosm of the game around her, a proverbial rock fight that ended without either side eclipsing 50 points.
If Lawson’s team pulls the upset and takes down the reigning champions, Richardson will likely have posted a bounce-back performance. The Charlotte native put up a similarly poor performance in Duke’s nonconference loss to the Gamecocks back in December, shooting 1-of-8 and missing two attempts from deep. However, she has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the year including a 35-point showing in an overtime win against Oklahoma and a 23-point performance in a home defeat of North Carolina. While it is a strength of the Blue Devils that a number of different players can go off any given night, a good shooting night from Richardson could be the difference to send Duke to its first Final Four since 2006.
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South Carolina: Raven Johnson
While the junior guard’s offensive game has been scrutinized at times this season — she averages just five points per game — it’s no question that Raven Johnson is excellent on the defensive end of the floor. One of six players named to the All-SEC Defensive Team, the Atlanta native is a key cog in South Carolina’s stifling defensive machine.
Many casual viewers of women’s basketball became acquainted with Johnson during last year’s championship game, in which her relentless effort kept Iowa phenom Caitlin Clark in check en route to a national title for the Gamecocks. Standing at 5-foot-9, she has only continued to improve as a force on the defensive end, where she consistently shuts down the best guards that South Carolina matches up against. After a poor performance on the perimeter against the Tar Heels, Blue Devil guards Richardson and Ashlon Jackson will need to best Johnson if they hope to get back on track and spring the upset. -Elliott Jarnot
Samanyu Gangappa is a Trinity sophomore and local/national news editor for the news department.