Overview

Head coach: Courtney Banghart 

2023-24 record: 20-11, 13-7 ACC

2024-25 record: 29-7, 13-5 ACC

Last meeting: 68-53 Duke, Feb. 27, 2025 

Familiar foes meet once again, but this time in Birmingham, Ala., as Duke and North Carolina clash for one final time this season with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line. This will be the third meeting between the two programs this season, with each team having won one of the previous two matchups. No. 3-seed North Carolina will return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2022 after it defeated No. 6-seed West Virginia Mountaineers in a stout defensive performance. The Mountaineers shot just 24.1% from the field. In the first round of the tournament, North Carolina took down No. 14-seed Oregon State in a dominant third-quarter performance, outscoring the Beavers by 21 points in that frame. 

Leading the postseason performances for the Tar Heels is fifth-year senior Alyssa Ustby, who had 27 points and seven rebounds in the win against West Virginia. Against Oregon State, she had 10 points and tallied nine rebounds in the contest while logging the most minutes on the team. The Rochester, Minn., native made a strong impact defensively with four steals and three blocks against the Mountaineers, who had no answer for Ustby.

Contributing on offense for the Tar Heels is senior Lexi Donarski, who had 11 points, two rebounds and two assists in the win against West Virginia. Reniya Kelly also added 11 points for the Tar Heels in that victory; the sophomore guard did not play in the previous matchup against Duke. Defense has been a point of emphasis for North Carolina this season; Banghart’s squad only allowed nine points in that fourth quarter. They also forced many turnovers and scored 23 points off of West Virginia’s giveaways. 

Defense wins championships. It is how great teams separate themselves from the good teams and both programs have been able to make it a strength. Duke held Oregon to 53 points and North Carolina held West Virginia to 47 points, both amongst the lowest opponents point totals in this year's Round of 32. Though North Carolina struggled with turnovers, they still found a way to make them count — outscoring West Virginia 23-11 in points off turnovers. Similarly, Duke committed just five fewer turnovers than Oregon, but managed to convert those mistakes into nine more points, showcasing their efficiency in transition.

In the last contest between Duke and North Carolina, where Duke won 68-53, North Carolina was forced into turning over the ball 20 times compared to Duke’s eight. The Blue Devils made the Tar Heels pay as well, scoring 25 points off the turnovers forced. Duke holds the advantage in both departments in game averages for turnovers forced and points off turnovers. The outcome of the matchup may well be decided in the turnover department with just how defensively sound both of these teams are.  -Barajas

X-Factor

Duke: Toby Fournier

The ACC Freshman of the Year’s absence was felt in the Round of 32, as the Canadian forward was ruled out with an illness. As a result, the Blue Devils barely fended off Oregon in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Now, just a few days shy of the Sweet 16 game, the timeline for Fournier’s return remains unclear. Fournier’s performance was a key measure of Duke’s success against North Carolina in the regular season. In her team's mid-January loss to the Tar Heels, Fournier earned the Blue Devils just two points, a far cry from her game average of 13.4. The 6-foot-2 freshman was completely cold from the floor, making none of her eight field-goal attempts.

But just a month later, Fournier’s ball consistently found the net, notching an impressive 19 points against North Carolina at a much-improved 6-of-11 record from the field. 

The Toronto native recently posted a TikTok hint at a return this Friday. If she is available, Fournier’s rebounding ability will be invaluable against the Tar Heels. In its second round game against West Virginia, three of North Carolina’s starters took at least 11 shots, with Kelly and Donarski connecting on only four shots each. If Fournier can capitalize on the Tar Heels’ shooting deficits by crashing on the boards consistently, it could be lights out for North Carolina. 

North Carolina: Alyssa Ustby

In her final season as a Tar Heel, the Rochester, Minn., native has left everything on the court. Her shooting prowess matches that of Fournier but with the noticeable addition of four more years of experience. Not only did Ustby grab 21 points for North Carolina against West Virginia, shooting an impressive 63.6% from the field, the four time All-ACC selection also broke the Tar Heels’ all time rebounding record in the Round of 64.

Ustby’s Achilles' heel lies in her tendency to turnover the basketball; the 6-foot-1 player was responsible for nearly a third of North Carolina’s 17 turnovers against the Mountaineers. This issue runs down Tobacco Road to reach the Blue Devils, who also often lose possession and rack up early game fouls, leaving Duke struggling to keep their energy consistent. In a match against two dominant, but mistake-prone Sweet 16 teams, the path to the Elite Eight may be paved with tournament experience — something Ustby has in spades. -Kate Reiniche

3 Keys

Crash the boards: Every possession will be valuable against the Tar Heels. In each matchup since 2022, Duke and North Carolina have combined for 128 points or fewer, and the two teams required overtime in February of 2024 to even reach that mark. The Blue Devils look their strongest when they dominate the boards: in a win in the ACC Tournament championship, Duke out-rebounded N.C. State by a margin of 44-28. In a close call against 10th-seeded Oregon last weekend, Duke struggled more. The Ducks kept things even in the rebounding column, winning the battle on the boards 33-32. A strength that the Blue Devils have leaned on throughout the season is their ability to control the ball and limit second-chance opportunities for opponents; their season will depend on it Friday afternoon.

Don’t fear new faces: A different North Carolina team will walk into Legacy Arena on Friday night. Ustby and Kelly have both returned from injury since the rivals’ last encounter just a few short weeks ago. Ustby led the Tar Heels in scoring against West Virginia, netting 21 of her team’s 58 points, and Kelly was playing her best basketball of the season before being sidelined in February. Courtney Banghart’s rejuvenated squad will present a new challenge for the Blue Devils.

On the brighter side, Duke will hope to return Fournier, who missed Saturday’s home finale with an undisclosed illness. If the freshman phenom is ready to go, then Duke will have a new spark to match North Carolina. Fournier will look to recreate a strong performance against the Tar Heels in February with a 19-point double-double, but she’ll face a new challenge with Ustby’s presence. Though listed as a guard, North Carolina’s 6-foot-1 senior recorded three blocks against West Virginia in the second round.

Find the scorers: There is no question that Kara Lawson has put together one of the most tenacious defenses in America. Some uncertainty remains, though, in who will step up for the Blue Devils on the opposite end. Reigan Richardson restored her offensive rhythm on her senior night against the Tar Heels in February. Oluchi Okananwa stepped up her scoring in the Blue Devils’ ACC Tournament run. Junior guard Ashlon Jackson came out swinging with an Herculean effort against Oregon to singlehandedly restore her squad’s lead. In a loss to North Carolina back in January, Jackson was the only Blue Devil to post double-digit scoring with 10 points. With its leading scorer in Fournier hopefully returning to the rotation, Duke will have several weapons at the ready. Someone will find the opportunity to be a hero in what is sure to be a rivalry classic. -Sarah Muir