The NCAA tournament bracket was released Sunday, and the tournament is just beginning to tip off. The Blue Zone is here to break down the top teams and possible upsets in each region. Next up is the South:
The No. 1 seed: Auburn Tigers
After a 2023-24 season that ended in a first-round upset at the hands of Yale, Auburn has reloaded into a dominant title contender. Led by SEC Coach of the Year Bruce Pearl, the Tigers faced — and lived up to — a brutal conference schedule, coming out on the other side of it with a staggering 16 Quad 1 victories and the SEC regular-season title. Despite losing in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament to Tennessee, the selection committee rewarded Auburn’s impressive resume with the top overall seed in the NCAA tournament.
The Tigers boast a deep and experienced roster that is effectively matchup-proof. Forward Johni Broome, the SEC Player of the Year, has secured 18 double-doubles this season and currently vies with Duke’s Cooper Flagg for the National Player of the Year trophy. Denver Jones has proven himself as one of the SEC’s best 3-and-D guards this season, while fellow guard Chad Baker-Mazara has added efficient, three-level scoring to Auburn. Georgia Tech transfer Miles Kelly and freshman Tahaad Pettiford have been the 3-point specialists for the Tigers; the two combined for eight of Auburn’s 10 made threes in its Dec. 4 loss to Duke. Lastly, center Dylan Cardwell often flies under the radar, yet his ability to defend all five positions makes him one of the best “glue guys” in the country, according to EvanMiya.com.
All of this certainly sounds great for the Tigers, but they come into the NCAA tournament with less momentum than most top-seeded contenders. They have lost three of their last four contests heading into the tournament; no team has won the NCAA championship under those circumstances. For most of its regular season, however, Auburn looked unstoppable, and it could very well be the first to break this trend despite signs of its mortality showing.
The other contenders: Power conference standouts
The South region is arguably the weakest in the tournament, in part because the top No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are placed in separate quadrants, preventing them from facing each other before the Final Four. However, contenders are still present, the most obvious being No. 2-seed Michigan State. Led by head coach Tom Izzo in his 30th season, the Spartans won the Big Ten outright regular-season title for the first time since 2018. A potential Achilles heel for Michigan State is its 3-point shooting — its low mark of 30.8% is one of the worst in the country. However, freshman guard Jase Richardson has made 41.2% of his attempts from beyond the arc and has been a standout for a great Spartans squad.
No. 3-seed Iowa State started the season off on a heater, winning 17 of its first 19 games before going .500 the rest of the way and losing in the quarterfinal of the Big 12 tournament to BYU. This slump was compounded with recent news that guard Keshon Gilbert, who averaged 13.4 points and 4.1 assists per game this season, will be out for the entirety of the NCAA tournament with a groin injury. Despite this injury, the Cyclones are still a formidable squad, boasting the No. 10-ranked defense according to KenPom.
Other contenders from power conferences include No. 4-seed Texas A&M, No. 5-seed Michigan and No. 8-seed Louisville. The Aggies are led by First Team All-SEC selection Wade Taylor IV, who averages 15.7 points per game, albeit on suboptimal efficiency. Meanwhile, the Wolverines secured the program’s first Big Ten championship since 2018 after an incredible run in the conference tournament. Lastly, the Cardinals enter the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2019 off a balanced scoring attack and a fantastic coaching job by ACC Coach of the Year Pat Kelsey. They arguably were underseeded following a strong 18-2 finish in regular-season conference play. These teams all stand to make noise in the South, even with Auburn seemingly head and shoulders above them.
The potential Cinderella: UC San Diego
UC San Diego was eligible for the NCAA Tournament for the first time in the 2024-25 season after completing its transition period from Division II. The Tritons took advantage of this opportunity and then some, winning 30 games and defeating UC Irvine to capture the Big West championship. With Big West Player of the Year Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones leading the way, UC San Diego earned the No. 12 seed in the South. The Tritons’ matchup with the fifth-seeded Wolverines is stronger than the seed lines suggest — UC San Diego is among the best turnover-forcing teams in the country, while Michigan is one of the most turnover-prone teams. They might not be favored, but the Tritons earning an NCAA tournament berth proves one thing — the sky's the limit for their program this season.
The regional narrative: Auburn in the lead & a surprise berth
Auburn is clearly the top dog here, thanks to a phenomenal roster. It is hard to imagine a team other than the Tigers making the Final Four from the South, but stranger things have certainly happened.
The final notable selection in the South was No. 11-seed North Carolina, who blew out San Diego State Tuesday in a First Four matchup. The Tar Heels made the ACC semifinals, yet their 1-12 record against Quad 1 opponents made their inclusion puzzling to several commentators, especially over other strong teams such as Indiana and West Virginia. North Carolina’s offense has played very well in its last 10 games, but its porous defense and lack of size looks to be a significant detriment to its hopes of a run in the tournament.
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