Duke men’s basketball associate head coach Jai Lucas recently left the program after being announced as Miami’s new head coach. The Blue Zone discusses the potential impact of losing Lucas on the Blue Devils’ quest for a sixth national championship:
Point: Losing Jai Lucas seriously hurts Duke’s title chances
After a spectacular regular season, it seemed like nothing could go wrong for the Blue Devils. They have the ACC’s best player, a stacked rotation and the top seed in Charlotte this week. However, a new wrench has been thrown into the fold. Associate head coach Jai Lucas will no longer be manning the bench this season; Saturday’s contest in Chapel Hill was his last game with the program. This news comes on the back of his hiring by Miami, who pegged the former Duke assistant as its new head man. There’s a larger argument to be made here about the unfair decision Lucas had to make — one that involves a tirade against the NCAA — but I will table that for now. The bottom line is this: Lucas was an integral piece of Duke’s immense success this year, and it may not be able to overcome the loss down the stretch of the season.
“Its timing is … it's not ideal, but there's no other option,” head coach Jon Scheyer said. “This is the only thing that could have happened.”
It’s no secret how good the Blue Devils have been on defense this season; they sport the fourth-highest defensive rating on KenPom at the time of writing. While some of the credit for this certainly goes to the players — having guys like Cooper Flagg, Sion James and Khaman Maluach raises your floor immensely — Lucas was instrumental in molding the unit.
As the team’s defensive coordinator, the game plan to stifle every team’s offense ran through Lucas. Duke’s defense is naturally good enough to stop most teams, but it’s March. Any team can get hot at any time, and the average opponent will be stronger than what the Blue Devils have faced in conference play.
Another coach will have to assume the duty of creating an outline to slow down top-tier opponents — on a tight schedule due to the nature of March Madness. Chris Carrawell or Emanuel Dildy can likely fill the role admirably, but having to add something else to their existing laundry list of responsibilities will be tough.
Ultimately, the duties will trickle their way back up to the top. In his third season, Scheyer is now faced with his best team and maybe biggest burden yet. His right-hand man is gone, and his plate just got way fuller heading into postseason play.
“At the end of the day, it's my responsibility. Just like every game plan we put together, it falls on me. Offensively, defensively, I don't care what it is. I’m a very hands-on coach. That's not going to change, and we'll be ready to go,” Scheyer said.
Duke could very well still win the title, but the challenge just got much greater. The newly-minted Hurricane no longer can impart his wisdom on the Blue Devil defense; the unit will have to rely on its experience and the remainder of the coaching staff to push it to San Antonio. Lucas’ move to Coral Gables, Fla., could not have come at a more inopportune time. Let’s hope it does not derail Duke’s historic season. Caleb Dudley
Counterpoint: Duke will be just fine on its NCAA Tournament run without Lucas because of its overwhelming talent
I am not taking this stance because I believe that Lucas isn’t a remarkable coach; in fact, I think he will have near-immediate success at Miami as an outstanding recruiter who understands the new college basketball landscape. But I do think that Duke’s historic season — particularly on the defensive end of the floor — is primarily the result of incredibly talented players who have learned to play together seamlessly.
With four Blue Devils receiving at least one vote for the recently announced ACC Defensive Player of the Year, it’s clear that the players on the floor will be able to get the job done. Pre-game preparation, practice and in-game coaching are certainly all important aspects of shutting down an opposing offense, but it ultimately comes down to the players on the court making the right plays at the right times to hinder playcalls, create turnovers and protect the basket. And Duke’s players on the floor are among the absolute best.
Flagg is obviously the headliner, and his recent ankle injury and uncertain status moving forward could throw a bit of a wrench into the Blue Devils’ defensive efforts. But while the freshman superstar rehabs, there is a plethora of lengthy, agile and — most importantly now that Lucas is in Coral Gables — instinctive defenders ready to make up for his absence.
Khaman Maluach and Sion James, for example, are extremely active defenders who seem to always be in the right place at the right time to shut down drives and alter shots away from the rim. Lucas’ scout skills may have helped these players learn to be in the right place, but the season is old enough that as the game slows down and the intensity heats up in March. Duke fans should trust these stalwarts to continue to be strong on defense moving forward.
While it is no secret that Lucas was the primary defensive gameplanner during the regular season, he certainly wasn’t the only one. From Scheyer himself all the way down to Director of Scouting and Analytics Zach Marcus and his team of video interns, the Blue Devils are more equipped than almost any squad across the country to scout, analyze and coach the players defensively. Lucas’ smarts and coaching acumen will be missed — Scheyer’s quotes make that pretty clear — but I think it would be more than an overreaction to say Duke will be lost on the defensive end without him.
Ultimately, this is one of the most talented college basketball teams we have seen in decades, and maybe ever. Lucas provided valuable traits and coaching to the staff, and again, I believe he will do an exceptional job in Miami. But I also think the Blue Devils are just too good — too talented, too well-coached, too fundamentally sound — for the loss of an associate head coach to turn them into a different team.
Time will tell as March grows older, but I think the Duke defense will be just fine. -Elliot Jarnot
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Sign up for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.