With Duke’s first round game right around the corner, The Chronicle’s men’s basketball beats break down their thoughts on the Blue Devils’ path to a sixth national championship and other March Madness storylines. Click through the gallery above to see our bracket predictions:
Who’s your dark horse?
Gonzaga: As someone whose basketball education came in the 2010s, it feels odd to call Gonzaga a dark horse. After all, only the Bulldogs have advanced to or beyond the Sweet 16 in each of the last nine NCAA Tournaments, twice appearing in the national title game. A No. 8 seed after a season spent on the fringes of the AP Poll may indicate to some that this Zags group is down in 2024-25, but there’s a lot I still like about Mark Few’s team. The most obvious is Ryan Nembhard, who is as elite a playmaking point guard as they come in college basketball; the senior leads the nation in assists with a video-game-like 9.8 per game and still averages 10.8 points. Less obvious is the Bulldogs’ depth, with five players averaging double digits in points, a stellar scoring big in Graham Ike and, my favorite, an 80.1% free-throw percentage. Guard play, a reliable center and good free-throw shooting are a winning recipe, despite a tough draw against some combination of Georgia, Houston, Clemson and Purdue. It certainly won’t be easy, but with plenty of weapons, historic success in March and an experienced coach, I can’t count the Bulldogs out. -Andrew Long
Louisville: Pat Kelsey’s under-seeded squad has all the makings of a dark horse. The Cardinals largely fell off the radar in early December after an injury bug stripped them of all but seven healthy players. They’ve since found upward momentum. Critics will say it stemmed from weak ACC competition, but there’s no denying Louisville’s players have adjusted to a limited rotation. Even if the small Cardinals struggle against Creighton big man Ryan Kalkbrenner, Chucky Hepburn could still cripple the Bluejays’ offense by limiting production from sharpshooter Steven Ashworth. On the other side of that matchup waits a potential date with Johni Broome and No. 1-seed Auburn; I think an upset is possible here. The Tigers have dropped off defensively, and Hepburn makes the pick-and-roll work for the Cardinals. Tack on a win against Michigan (Louisville just needs to crash the glass for that one), and the ACC runner-up may find itself in the Elite Eight despite a nightmare of a bracket draw. Playing in Lexington, Ky., for the first two rounds also doesn’t hurt. –Abby DiSalvo
Maryland: If you have listened to the Cameron Chronicles throughout the season, this pick comes as no surprise — I am all in on the Terrapins. Much like Duke, Maryland sports one of the best defenses and starting lineups in the country; they aren’t called the Crab Five for no reason. Freshman big Derik Queen is perhaps my favorite player in the entire country to watch, and Cooper Flagg’s high school teammate has the goods to carry his team on a run as a No. 4 seed. Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Rodney Rice are great compliments in the backcourt as well, as head coach Kevin Willard constructed a first group I wouldn’t take anyone over except maybe Duke. It’s sixth in defensive rating, has size galore and was tested in Big Ten play. The main concerns: lack of depth and a tough West region. I think the talent can overcome that; I have the Terps besting Florida and reaching the national title game. -Caleb Dudley
Who’s your surprise early exit?
Auburn: The Tigers have lost three of their last four games after starting the season with a 27-2 record. It’s rare for a No. 1-overall seed to look this vulnerable coming into the tournament, and the team’s draw on Selection Sunday did coach Bruce Pearl’s squad no favors. While Auburn should easily defeat Alabama State in the first round, its second round matchup in Lexington promises to boast a plethora of problems for the Tigers. Both of Auburn’s potential second round opponents, Louisville and Creighton, are incredibly underseeded. The Cardinals’ No. 8 seed appears a shocking oversight compared to the team’s No. 10 ranking in the AP Poll and its recent run to the ACC Tournament final. What’s more, Kelsey’s squad would play less than 80 miles away from their home court, undoubtedly benefiting from a significant contingent of pro-Louisville fans. Conversely, the Blue Jays finished second in the Big East and also made their conference tournament championship. The improbable ninth seed stars Kalkbrenner, a four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year, one of the few players who could potentially contain Broome. If Auburn makes it past the second round, it doesn’t get any easier, with potential matchups against Big Ten Tournament champion Michigan, Big Ten regular-season champion Michigan State, a feisty Iowa State squad or a Texas A&M team that defeated the Tigers less than three weeks ago. -Rodrigo Amare
The No. 2 seeds on the left of the bracket: I’m cheating a bit here, but I see a lot of brackets high on St. John’s and Michigan State. While both of those teams are extremely talented, especially on the defensive end, I worry about their ability to make shots from behind the arc. If they face teams that get hot and contend with the physicality of both groups, I could see an upset brewing. I have the Red Storm losing to Kansas in the second round and think the Spartans could be vulnerable against either Ole Miss or North Carolina in a possible Sweet 16 matchup. Obviously both coaches are elite and accomplished in the tournament, but I hesitate to put too much confidence in teams that are too susceptible to offensive lulls. -Ranjan Jindal
How far will Duke go?
Lose in the Elite Eight: This is not a new debate for Andrew and me. It is a fact that Duke is fully capable of winning a national title. It is maybe the most talented team in this tournament, and its regular season really cannot be overhyped. However, a healthy Blue Devil squad hasn’t really been challenged since it lost to Clemson more than a month ago. Yes, that very well may be that Scheyer’s crew has just been that much better than its opponents. But Duke will face better teams than its ACC counterparts. Alabama, with its fourth-best offense in the country according to KenPom, is going to give the Blue Devils a challenge they haven’t really seen this season. Duke’s defense is stellar, but it hasn’t had to stop a tempo quite like the Crimson Tide. We’ll see how competitive these guys really are, and how much of a fire Scheyer can light underneath them, but I think the Blue Devils hit a wall in the regional final in Newark. -Rachael Kaplan
All the way: I took Duke to the Final Four last year not because I thought it was the most balanced or most talented, but because I liked its matchups. I like the Blue Devils’ matchups this year, too, but feel even more confident in a deep run because I don’t see any glaring weaknesses in Duke’s game. Scheyer’s squad shoots the 3-ball as well as any, its rotation is two, even three deep at every position, its defense is excellent no matter the lineup and it boasts the longest, tallest roster of any team in the field. The Blue Devils thrive in transition, rebound with aggression and hold opponents to absurdly long possessions, forcing them into contested perimeter shots they more often than not miss. The way to beat Duke, then, is to negate its size advantage, play better in transition and shoot the lights out of the three all at the same time. I don’t see a team capable of doing that until, at earliest, the national championship game (I’m banking on Florida), where it will then have to contend with a red-hot Kon Knueppel and a National Player of the Year contender in Flagg. -Long
What about the rest of the ACC?
Louisville: One team from the ACC I love is Louisville. I think the Cardinals were under-seeded at the eight line, but they got lucky getting to play in Lexington. While getting past Creighton will be no easy feat, I see Louisville as a squad with strong fundamentals on both sides of the ball. The Bluejays are led by Kalkbrenner, but can run into trouble when his catches are difficult. If Hepburn and company can dig at the ball against the St. Louis native and force some turnovers, I see them advancing. From there, I see the Cardinals riding a home crowd to a massive upset against Auburn. Kelsey has already completely turned around the program, but I do not think his work is done yet. -Dom Fenoglio
Clemson and North Carolina: It’s March, and I think the ACC will make its mark once again, even with only four teams in the bracket. Clemson has a nice draw in my opinion, and matches up well with McNeese State and Purdue. Both of those teams lack a true interior presence, and Viktor Lahkin and Ian Schieffelin can dominate the glass and the paint in those games. However, the loss of point guard Dillon Hunter means more than most people realize, so I think there is a good chance for a Sweet 16 loss. Still, Brad Brownell’s team is playing with a lot of confidence right now. North Carolina is coming off a dominant win against San Diego State, and I have them actually going all the way to the Elite Eight. With the improved shot-making of Elliot Cadeau, the defense of Drake Powell and the emergence of Jae’Lyn Withers, the Tar Heels could have a surprise showing. -Ranjan Jindal
Who is your player of the tournament?
Cooper Flagg: The recently-named consensus first-team All-American will be ready to play in Duke’s first-round matchup Friday after recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. Flagg is inarguably one of the two best players in the country, playing on the nation’s top-ranked team; predicting the freshman phenom to excel in the tournament isn’t exactly a bold prediction. The brightest stars shine in the brightest moments, and I expect Flagg to continue to cement himself as one of the greatest one-and-dones in college basketball history. His numbers speak for themselves — the Newport, Maine, native leads the Blue Devils in every statistical category — but it's Flagg’s ability to make his teammates better that I believe will make the biggest impact in March. If Duke lives up to the hype as the premier title contender, Flagg will lead the way, continuing to make history on the Blue Devils’ quest for a sixth national championship. -Rodrigo Amare
Walter Clayton Jr.: Flagg and Broome are the clear frontrunners for the Wooden Award, but Clayton’s stock continues to rise as Florida’s does. Coming into March Madness, the guard is third on the KenPom Player of the Year rankings — and for good reason. The AP first-team All-American is averaging 17.5 points per game this campaign and has an impressive 37.7% mark from downtown to boot. The former Iona Gael dominated at the SEC Tournament last week, going for 62 points over the Gators’ three games — 22 points in both the semifinals and title game helped power Florida to a No. 1 seed. Clayton and company will continue to generate buzz ahead of their opening game against Norfolk State, and the opportunity has arisen to put himself on the same pedestal as Flagg and Broome. They say guards win in March; let’s see if Clayton has what it takes. -Dudley
Who is cutting down the nets?
Jindal: Houston
Fenoglio: Duke
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Levenson: Duke
Long: Duke
Kaplan: Florida
DiSalvo: Duke
Amare: Duke
Dudley: Duke
Rachael Kaplan is a Trinity senior and a senior editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Ranjan Jindal is a Trinity junior and sports editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Sophie Levenson is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Rodrigo Amare is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Abby DiSalvo is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Andrew Long is a Trinity senior and recruitment/social chair of The Chronicle's 120th volume. He was previously sports editor for Volume 119.