Beats' picks: Will Duke basketball defeat Arizona in the Sweet 16?

No. 1-seed Duke will take on No. 4-seed Arizona tonight with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line. Check out what our beats predict will happen in the second game between the two foes: 

Ranjan Jindal: Duke 86-75

Duke’s offense has been prolific of late, and I think that continues against Arizona’s defense — which at times struggles both on the interior and at forcing turnovers. This game is going to come down to whether the Blue Devils can clear the defensive glass; they did well in the November matchup between the two squads but have struggled to start the tournament in that department. I think the key here will be Sion James’ effort on both ends of the floor, because his ability to guard both Caleb Love and Jaden Bradley is essential. In the end, Duke’s firepower from deep and size advantage should send it to the next round. 

Dom Fenoglio: Duke 81-73 

To me, this game boils down to options. As elite as Caleb Love has shown he can play at times — and even if he puts together a fantastic performance Thursday — I’m not sure Arizona has enough firepower behind him to keep up with the Blue Devils. On the other hand, I think Duke is as confident as ever in terms of picking up the slack if one player is off his game. The Blue Devils just won the ACC Tournament without Cooper Flagg, and both Kon Knueppel and Isaiah Evans took more limited roles in Duke’s first NCAA Tournament games because of Tyrese Proctor’s dominance. If Proctor has an off night, Knueppel will step up. If Knueppel struggles, Evans is due for a big one. The list runs at least eight players deep. With Flagg back in the fold doing a little bit of everything, I think the Blue Devils roll to the Elite Eight.

Sophie Levenson: Duke 79-70

They did it once, and they can do it again. The Blue Devils proved dominant over the Wildcats back in November, not only outscoring Arizona but also rebounding more than twice as well as Tommy Lloyd’s team. Since it’s March, I expect a slimmer margin than the 14-point victory Duke managed. Still, even a tournament version of Love doesn’t pose a serious threat to Duke’s elite backcourt.

What has stood out most to me in the last week is the Blue Devils’ mental preparedness for this tournament. As always, March Madness has had a wild slew of upsets and near-upsets in the first two rounds. But Duke has not fallen victim to the craziness of the tournament — Scheyer’s team has played like it should. This is particularly impressive given how young many of his stars are, but I think it speaks volumes to the steadying presences of Proctor and James.

Andrew Long: Duke 78-72

I think too much is being made about the Love “thing” as a difference-maker here. Yes, the St. Louis native has arguably the best single-game performance against Duke ever, but his career against the Blue Devils in the three years since has been mediocre at best. In the four meetings with Duke since the Final Four, Love has lost thrice and gone a combined 14-of-50 from the field averaging 10.5 points in the process. That doesn’t mean Love couldn’t explode in March against Duke again, but with the same defender guarding him as in each of the past four meetings (Proctor), I have a hard time expecting a scoring avalanche from the fifth-year senior to push Arizona through. The excellent offensive rebounding of Tobe Awaka and Henri Veesaar is where I see the Wildcats’ best opportunity to negate the effects of Duke’s defense and could make things close, but I don’t think that will be enough. Scheyer’s rotation is deeper, his defense better and his scoring apparatus more versatile. Even if Love concocts another March masterclass, expect a repeat result to November’s in Tucson.

Caleb Dudley: Duke 80-75

There’s been ample talk about how the Wildcats are a vastly different team than when they played host to the Blue Devils at the McKale Memorial Center in November. Veesaar has developed into a force down low, Anthony Dell’Orso has slotted well into the starting lineup and freshman Carter Bryant looks the part of a NBA draft selection. But make no mistake, Duke has evolved since then as well — and for the better. James replaces Caleb Foster in the starting five, the freshman standouts have continued to develop and Ngongba and Evans have emerged as key pieces after not playing in the first matchup. At its core, I see the matchup playing out the same: Arizona goes as the volatile Love dictates, and Duke will maintain the same size advantage it flexed on the glass back in November. I don’t foresee Knueppel and Proctor combining to go 7-for-22 from the field again, nor do I think the Blue Devils will tally a measly 15-to-14 assist-to-turnover mark. Duke advances to the Elite Eight. 

Rachael Kaplan: Arizona 82-79

It’s hard to beat a team twice. However, both sides have grown immensely since they first met in November. Then, Duke outrebounded Arizona by 13 and James wasn’t yet in the starting lineup. The Wildcats fell out of the AP poll, rose back up it, and have been playing much better: Lloyd’s squad has only been outrebounded once since its Jan. 18 loss to Texas Tech. Love has been on a tear, and had his most efficient 3-point night of the year against Oregon. I think this outcome depends on which version of Love shows up (and how well Proctor shuts him down). Is it the Love Duke faced in November and held to eight points, or the one who ended the Blue Devils’ season in 2022? There is no question that Duke can win this game, but all it takes is one great game, especially from someone who has had its number before, to send the favorites home. 

Season records

Jindal: 9-1

Fenoglio: 9-1

Levenson: 7-3

Dudley: 7-3

DiSalvo: 7-3

Amare: 7-3

Long: 7-3

Kaplan: 6-4

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