Both Duke basketball teams routed their first round opponents in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Zone discusses which team will make it further in March in the latest edition of Point-Counterpoint:
Point: Duke women’s basketball’s momentum will carry it further than the men’s team in March.
Duke women’s basketball has been on the ascent all season long, and its hard work has culminated in earning a No. 2 seed in March Madness. As I outlined in an article earlier this week, this team’s development on defense has been outstanding, and the driver behind this season’s improvement from simply a “very good” team into one of the best in the nation.
In my eyes, this is the type of improvement that represents a fully changed team. One can’t judge this current squad off of any results before the ACC Tournament began — it simply has developed too much since then. In this time frame, the Blue Devils beat every team they’ve played, avenging losses against Louisville, Notre Dame and N.C. State en route to a conference tournament title.
In a few of its most recent games, Duke took down two No. 3 seeds, North Carolina and Notre Dame, and a No. 2 seed in the Wolfpack. These Blue Devils have shown the ability to take down top teams in the nation, and they have more than enough talent to do so in March Madness.
Looking at head coach Kara Lawson’s team, the veteran leadership of senior Reigan Richardson and junior Ashlon Jackson in the starting backcourt will provide steady hands to keep possession of the basketball. Teams with consistent and poised ball handlers often go far in the tournament, and if either Richardson or Jackson aren’t up to the task, the guard rotation of Oluchi Okananwa, Taina Mair and Vanessa de Jesus can all offer changes of pace.
In the front court, the underclass trio of Jadyn Donovan, Delaney Thomas and Toby Fournier will undoubtedly be challenged. In my estimation, the team’s success will hinge on how the forwards play; if the young group is able to rise to the challenge of facing off against top seeds in the later stage of the tournament, Lawson’s team is set up well.
On the topic of top seeds, Duke faced off against its region’s No. 1 seed, South Carolina, in early December on the road. The Blue Devils lost, but an 11-point loss on the road to one of the top teams in the nation was an encouraging sign at the time.
Now, seeing how the Durham side has developed, I believe that it can definitely take down the Gamecocks in a theoretical Elite Eight matchup. In their first meeting, the Blue Devils allowed 48 points in the paint, one of the areas that they’ve improved the most on since then. If Duke can make it through tough games en route to a potential rematch, I think it has the tools to at least win the region. Then, once in the Final Four, anything can happen.
Additionally, the difference between women’s and men’s NCAA Tournaments is significant. Historically, the women’s tournament has significantly fewer upsets, and higher seeded teams have much better odds of cutting down the nets come mid-April.
Lawson’s team is clearly within the top tier of contenders in women’s college basketball; A team like Duke — well-coached, with no glaring weaknesses — has as good of a chance as anyone to win it all. Don’t get me wrong. Men’s basketball is undoubtedly better in their field than the women’s team is, but when it comes to who’s more likely to win the championship, I think that Lawson’s squad is more likely to bring home the hardware. -Myles Powicki
Counterpoint: Duke men’s basketball simply possesses too much talent — it will make the deeper tournament run.
30.97%. That’s how many participants in the Men’s Bracket Challenge have anointed Duke as their champion. According to the NCAA, public confidence in a tournament team hasn’t reached these heights since the 2018-19 Blue Devils with Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish, a group that ultimately fell short of the Final Four. However, despite the enormous expectations and the near-equal doubt they face, this season’s Duke squad couldn’t be better built for the moment.
When considering the great teams and champions of the past, talent is most-easily identifiable as a marker for success — and the Blue Devils are in no shortage of special players. Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, has taken the college basketball world by storm. Flagg dominates in nearly every aspect of the sport — leading his team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. Opponents have yet to find an answer for the Montverde Academy product, if there’s one to be discovered.
Should Flagg falter, though, Duke has already proven its ability to not only stay afloat but to also outclass its opponents. Although the national spotlight indeed focuses on “The Maine Event,” the true strength of this team lies in its depth.
Simply put, no other program in the tournament, much less college basketball, can match the Blue Devils in this regard. In addition to Flagg are two more top-10-projected picks in freshmen Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach, as well as Isaiah Evans, Tyrese Proctor and Sion James — each with very realistic chances of hearing their name called in the NBA Draft. Further still, Mason Gillis, Maliq Brown, Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II have proven to be weapons off the bench.
The best part of these stockpiled riches is the lack of redundancy. Beyond its cumulative talent, Duke operates seamlessly as a team from its defensive connectivity to its elite ball movement. Head coach Jon Scheyer has gotten his group to completely buy into a system where players can assume nearly any responsibility from a “3-and-D” role player to a primary ball-handler and scoring option.
The women’s team too boasts a well-rounded group with a clear identity, yet it still lacks the top-end talent that is often the separator in March. ACC Newcomer of the Year Toby Fournier has impressed, although her offense came and went throughout the conference tournament. Upperclassmen guards Richardson and Jackson have had games in which they showcased the ability to go scorching hot from beyond the arc, but those performances seem like outliers in the greater context of the season. While there is no doubting the ferocity and efficacy of Lawson’s trademark defense, her team’s offense hasn’t been too reliable.
Furthermore, should the first three rounds prevail according to seeding, the women are on a collision course with powerhouse South Carolina, which dealt the Blue Devils a 81-70 loss in December. Unlike the women, the men will be heavily favored in any possible regional matchup and have the opportunity to do what they’ve done all season: Beat who they're supposed to.
Duke men’s basketball finished the season playing its best basketball yet — capping it off by capturing the ACC Tournament championship, remarkably without Flagg and Maliq Brown. Even without their budding superstar, the Blue Devils overwhelmed adversaries through discipline and hustle. Knueppel and Maluach especially shined bright, while others thrived in expanded roles. And now, adding the ACC Player of the Year back into the mix never hurts.
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Currently, KenPom ranks the Blue Devils as the nation’s top squad, boasting a net rating of 38.30. To put this figure into perspective, only three other programs possess net ratings greater than 31.00 — none are above 36.00.
The numbers, eye test and actual results clearly agree: Duke is the top team in college basketball — and not by an insignificant margin.
30.97% is quite a figure to live up to, but the road to championship number six, regardless of possible competition, is clear for these Blue Devils. -Alex Min