No. 1-seed Duke men's basketball will take on No. 2-seed Alabama in the East Region final. Our beats predict who will advance to the Final Four of the two squads:
Ranjan Jindal: Duke 93-82
The Blue Devils’ biggest strength defensively is holding teams to long possessions with ill-advised shots, but Alabama can challenge that because of its promise in transition and quick possessions. Duke should combat this by running the Crimson Tide off the 3-point line and forcing tough shots — similar to the defensive gameplan to Clemson (who made those tough twos). This game will once again come down to clearing the defensive glass; the best and most open 3-point shot is usually right after an offensive rebound. If the Blue Devils struggle to finish possessions on defense, it will be a rough night for head coach Jon Scheyer’s team. That said, I don’t see anyone on Alabama who can guard the majority of this Duke starting lineup, and I think the Blue Devils keep on dancing.
Dom Fenoglio: Duke 95-87
I was very close to picking the Crimson Tide in this one; they possess all of the keys to beating Duke, in my opinion. In fact, if Alabama had an above-average defense, I would have picked against the Blue Devils for the first time since November. However, I just have a hard time seeing the Crimson Tide slow down the No. 1-ranked offense in the country (according to KenPom) that is currently firing on all cylinders. The player to watch in this one for Duke is Isaiah Evans. The freshman has not had his breakout moment yet in March Madness, but Alabama often loses assignments or mistakenly goes under screens, both crucial mistakes when the 6-foot-6 sharpshooter is on the court. I expect Evans to make a splash — or two, or three or, well — and the Blue Devils to reach their first Final Four under head coach Jon Scheyer.
Sophie Levenson: Duke 90-83
If Tyrese Proctor, Evans and Cooper Flagg play the way they did in Thursday’s second half, I don’t see how Duke can lose this game. Especially with Maliq Brown back in action and Patrick Ngongba II playing his best defense of the year, the Crimson Tide’s threatening offense is containable. My biggest worry for the Blue Devils is foul trouble; against Arizona, Ngongba fouled out while Maluach and Knueppel collected four each. At this stage in the madness, that simply cannot happen; what’s a top-ranked defense without its biggest men? Additionally, guarding the perimeter will be a big task for Duke, but I’m confident that this elite backcourt can handle the challenge.
Caleb Dudley: Duke 84-78
The Crimson Tide are certainly a hard unit to stop on offense, and Mark Sears will prove to be one of the toughest assignments the Duke backcourt has faced this season. Luckily for the Blue Devils, Alabama’s play on the other end of the floor is not as inspiring. If Duke could drop 100 on Arizona, I don’t see it having too much trouble getting up and down the floor Saturday night. Running the SEC contender off of the 3-point line will be paramount; 25 triples allowed will almost certainly send the Blue Devils home sad. I’m interested to see how Scheyer deploys Brown down low after limited minutes, as his versatility should be a major asset against a high-octane offense. Overall, I think Duke is just too well-rounded to allow an offensive onslaught, and the Blue Devils advance to San Antonio.
Rodrigo Amare: Duke 88-86
Alabama’s electric 3-point shooting and breakneck pace of play will pose by far the biggest challenge for this Blue Devil squad since it defeated then-No. 2 Auburn in December. Against almost every team in the country, Duke cannot lose when it plays at its best — that may not be the case against the Crimson Tide. I doubt that Nate Oats’ squad will shoot better than it did in its dominant defeat of BYU Thursday, but even if Alabama only makes half as many threes as it did against the Cougars, that figure would still rank as the second most allowed by the Blue Devils this season. Scheyer has an interesting decision to make: Does Duke try to slow the game down and force the Crimson Tide into longer possessions, or do the Blue Devils match Alabama and seek to win in a shootout? Ultimately, I think both teams will unleash a terrifying display of offensive proficiency, and the game will come down to a handful of plays in the dying moments.
Abby DiSalvo: Duke 85-79
This game could easily turn into a 3-point stalemate. Alabama found momentum from deep against BYU, with Mark Sears going 10-for-16 from behind the arc. In Duke’s first two tournament games, Proctor netted 13-of-16. Both teams have shooters who will attempt to step up from three, and they post almost equal perimeter defense numbers — Duke allowing 31% of opponent shots from deep and Alabama 30.1%. With both teams also strong in the paint, the advantage will have to come from defense as a whole. That’s an area where the Blue Devils excel by nearly four percentage points over the Crimson Tide (holding opponents to a respective 42.3% and 38.5% of field goals). Tonight in the Prudential Center, it will be Flagg and Brown’s time to shine. The rest of the young Blue Devils will also need to show off their continually improving defensive instincts, but I think they’ll be able to scoot away with this Elite Eight win.
Andrew Long: Duke 90-79
I think this will run out pretty similar to Arizona, to be honest. On the surface, the two teams don’t play all that much like one another, but the way the Wildcats were able to punish Duke was by making ludicrous, contested 3-pointers and getting the Blue Devil bigs into foul trouble. Anyone who has watched even a minute of Oats basketball will know that’s where the Crimson Tide thrive, but Scheyer knows this too and will focus his game plan on forcing tough shots from deep and limiting touches in the post. The Blue Devils, more than any other team in the country, have the roster to do this. With a lengthy, tall guard room and deep stable of frontcourt options, including a healthy Brown, I expect a more disciplined and more defensively solid effort from Duke. There’s not much the Blue Devils can do if the Crimson Tide make 25 threes again, but short of that, I have to trust the best roster, best offense, one of the best defenses and best player in the field to advance.
Rachael Kaplan: Alabama 90-88
Thursday night, Alabama scored 113 points on a Sweet 16 team. Seventy-five of those came from threes, many of them contested. It’s done it before. Against Mississippi State, 22-of-45 3-pointers. It was 17-for-29 against Kentucky, 19-for-55 against South Dakota State. When the Crimson Tide make their shots, they make a lot of them. And five different guys made one on Thursday (10 also came just from Mark Sears). While the two-day turnaround means less rest and less prep, it also makes it easier to carry on momentum. If Sears and Alabama can continue their hot shooting, even if they don’t break their own record, that’s tough for anyone to keep up with. Duke will have to shoot well and slow the Crimson Tide’s pace, taking away the easy threes and forcing twos, even if just to bring the point total down. If Alabama isn’t shooting out of its mind, the Blue Devil defense will clamp it. If not, this will be a shootout that I don’t think Duke will win.
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Rachael Kaplan is a Trinity senior and a senior editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Ranjan Jindal is a Trinity junior and sports editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Sophie Levenson is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Rodrigo Amare is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Abby DiSalvo is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Andrew Long is a Trinity senior and recruitment/social chair of The Chronicle's 120th volume. He was previously sports editor for Volume 119.