The last time Duke and North Carolina played, the Tar Heels earned an overtime victory against the Blue Devils. This time, No. 16 Duke looks for revenge on Senior Night. Find out what our beats think will happen:
Martin Heintzelman: Duke 48-45
I really don't think either team will clear the 50-point mark in regulation. Duke-North Carolina matchups consistently provide some of the most low-scoring basketball in the Power 4. Both teams play great defense and can struggle in halfcourt offensive sets, which means there are a lot of turnovers and not a whole lot of buckets. I think the Blue Devils’ home-court advantage and senior night for guards Reigan Richardson and Vanessa de Jesus will be enough to pull them over the top, but anyone looking for a night of high-scoring basketball should turn elsewhere. This one will be a doozy.
Tyler Walley: Duke 55-52
When Duke and North Carolina have played in the last three seasons, the only guarantee is a brutish, defensive-driven affair. I don’t expect that to change Thursday, but I see several indicators of a Blue Devil victory. North Carolina has played with fire since the start of February, eking out several close wins, an arguably unsustainable trend. Additionally, Richardson’s shooting slump began in the ill-fated, overtime loss to the Tar Heels Jan. 9, so she’ll come into Thursday’s showdown with extra motivation to right the ship. Combine these regressions to the mean with the fact that the Blue Devils have been dominant at Cameron Indoor Stadium this year, and I have the home team pulling away to secure a close rivalry win.
Cayden Tu: Duke 67-65
Similar to their first matchup, I believe this game will be a close one. Despite North Carolina having a dominant stretch since the previous game compared to Duke’s bumpy stretch, I believe that the Blue Devils will still prevail. Although North Carolina has won more as of late, both teams have only played three ranked opponents in that stretch. Duke has had to play against top-ranked Notre Dame, preparing it for physical and competitive game play. I also believe that the Blue Devils have started to utilize standout freshman Toby Fournier, who is their leading scorer. She will have a crucial impact playing against dominant forward Maria Gakdeng for the Tar Heels.
Sarah Muir: North Carolina 58-54
North Carolina will walk into Cameron Indoor Thursday night as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Tar Heels have picked up seven straight, including wins against ranked opponents Cal and N.C. State. Catching that kind of rhythm in the ACC is no simple feat: Sophomore guard Reniya Kelly has been outstanding of late, averaging over 15 points in that seven-game stretch. Duke has the frontcourt to match up with anyone in the country in Fournier. However, its stars in the backcourt in Ashlon Jackson and Richardson have both averaged under 34% from the field in their last five contests compared to nearly 40% on the season. If they can bounce back, it could be a different story. In what is always a defensive struggle with North Carolina, though, I don’t expect the tides to turn.
Elle Chavis: Duke 56-50
Home-court advantage is a powerful thing. Last time these two teams matched up, the Tar Heels had the rowdy fans of Carmichael Arena to power them through every time the Blue Devils attempted to make a comeback. This time, Duke will have the support of its fans who can give it the push necessary to finish off the 2024-25 home season with a win. Although North Carolina is on a seven-game win streak, only two of those wins have come against ranked teams, and N.C. State nearly knocked off the Tar Heels a few weeks ago. The Blue Devils have played fierce competition since the last time the Tobacco Road rivals faced off. Look for that experience to carry them to victory Thursday night.
Colton Schwabe: Duke 77-72
If it were any other game, I would’ve said the chances are slim that a team would storm into Cameron Indoor and put up over 70 points against head coach Kara Lawson’s effective defensive schemes. But this isn’t any other game. When the rivals met earlier this season, the Tar Heels and Blue Devils entered the halftime break putting up a combined total of 32 points through the first two quarters. North Carolina quickly pulled ahead before Duke could work its way back to extend the game to overtime. The two meetings before that featured similarly tight play with Durham’s rendition of the Tobacco Road bout continuing into overtime. Though neither team broke the 60-point barrier through four quarters and an overtime period during their January matchup, I predict the dogfight will be displayed more on the offensive side this time. The Tar Heels come off a 79-75 win over Louisville whom the Blue Devils lost to, but I believe Duke will be able to hold its foe off on its home court and secure the ranked victory.
Myles Powicki: Duke 62-58
As pretty much everyone else has said, this is clearly a defensive battle between two great teams, and trying to predict it is basically a coin flip. On a neutral floor, I might pick the Tar Heels to take down Lawson’s squad, but in Cameron with a loss to their rivals already in the ledger this season, I see Duke simply wanting it more. I think that the home squad will be looking to prove it can beat top teams after falling to its last two ranked opponents, and I believe that Lawson is the perfect coach to lead this team to victories. On the court, the Blue Devils will need a bounce-back performance from struggling star Jackson, and her evening will be an almost-surefire barometer for her team's chance of victory.
Alex Min: Duke 58-55
After January’s slugfest of a contest at Carmichael Arena, I expect a similar product the second time around, albeit with a much more favorable result for Duke. While inconsistent shooting plagued the Blue Devils last matchup — no players recorded a field-goal percentage exceeding 50% — the Tar Heels also struggled against Lawson’s signature stout defense. As both teams hounded ball handlers and contested shots, it became clear that whichever blue-donning squad strung together a few made baskets first would secure the win. Yes, the Tar Heels enter Durham hoping to extend their seven-game winning streak, but visiting Cameron Indoor is never easy, especially facing a Duke team hungry for a statement win. Moreover, today’s matchup represents the Blue Devils’ last chance to secure a regular-season victory over a Research Triangle opponent, so I have to believe that this team will give everything it can to avoid the series’ sweep.
Lucy Glynn: Duke 59-55
The rivalry matchup is a women’s game unlike any other in Cameron Indoor. As the Cameron Crazies pack the student section, the power of home-court advantage becomes undeniable — enough to prevent the eighth-ranked Tar Heels from adding an eighth consecutive win to their schedule. As both teams are expected to keep their numbers low on the board, the question of who will come out victorious is dependent upon capitalizing in transition. Duke’s expertise in that field will be the reason it can exploit North Carolina turnovers and end victorious. The Blue Devils’ ability to steal the ball and convert it to offense will push the pace of the game to give Duke the ultimate lead.
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Martin Heintzelman is a Trinity junior and Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.