No. 3 Duke will travel to Madison Square Garden to take on a skidding Illinois squad. The Blue Zone has an overview of the Fighting Illini, along with a key stat, X-factor and three keys to a Blue Devil win:
Overview
2023-24 record: 29-9, 14-6 in the Big Ten
2024-25 record: 17-10, 9-8 in the Big Ten
Head coach: Brad Underwood
History: Duke leads 5-3
Last meeting: 83-68, Illinois, Dec. 8, 2020
While the Fighting Illini had a steady start to the year maintaining a firm position in the AP Poll, they were knocked out of the rankings recently following mediocre conference performances. Illinois is well within the bubble, but a grueling Big Ten schedule and the injury to forward Morez Johnson Jr. has spurred some pessimism as to if the Fighting Illini can even make the tournament.
Historically, Underwood’s philosophy has been to rely on the 3-point shot. The Fighting Illini currently rank seventh in the country at 30.3 3-point attempts per game, yet they rank at 312 in 3-point percentage. Duke has fared well defending behind the arc, but it faces a tall task in limiting the success of Illinois’ shooting. Recently, the Fighting Illini have leaned on a drive-and-kick offense, which will test the Blue Devils’ man-to-man defense and their ability to switch against Illinois' guard-heavy attack.
Facilitating the offense for the Fighting Illini is freshman Kasparas Jakučonis, who early in the season found himself in NBA lottery pick conversations. The 6-foot-6 guard is averaging 15.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. His youth has shown in unnecessary fouls on defense and careless distribution of the ball contributing to one of Illinois’ glaring weaknesses — 12.0 turnovers per game.
Duke and the Fighting Illini have shown success on the glass, ranking No. 10 and second respectively in rebound margin nationally. Illinois, however, will be without Johnson, who averages 6.6 boards per game. Leading rebounder Tomislav Ivišić, a 7-foot-1 sophomore, played slightly limited minutes in Tuesday's loss to No. 11 Wisconsin and his status for Saturday remains uncertain due to illness. The Fighting Illini’s strength in rebounding comes from the utilization of long guards whose workload will be heavier than normal with a shallow lineup down low.
-Jerry Barajas
Key stat
A detrimental aspect of Illinois’ game is those aforementioned turnovers. With a thin frontcourt for the Fighting Illini Saturday, they will have to rely more on the guards for offense, but carelessness has contributed to a mediocre 1.22 assist-to-turnover ratio. Duke’s pesky defense has contributed to creating opponent giveaways, and has capitalized — averaging 15 points off turnovers per game. This is all while the Blue Devils are limiting opponents’ scoring from its giveaways. Duke’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.73 — good for fifth in the nation.
Saturday's matchup will be a clash of elite guards and terrific defenses. A key statistic by the end of the night may very well be turnovers and winning will likely come down to protecting the ball. Moving the ball well against both of these defenses is key to limiting self-inflicted wounds. This Illinois unit is on a skid and an opportunity such as playing against Duke on a big stage could help this offense start clicking again and steady its ship for a run in March. -Barajas
3 Keys
A depth-centered performance: Some of No. 3 Duke’s best performances this year have been team efforts that haven’t relied on one or two big-name players to score points on offense. While strong individual outings, such as freshman Kon Knueppel’s 22 points against North Carolina, have powered the Blue Devils to major victories, head coach Jon Scheyer’s squad also delivers well-rounded performances. Against Georgia Tech in December, four players — Knueppel, freshmen Khaman Maluach and Cooper Flagg and junior Tyrese Proctor — served up a combined 56 points in an 82-56 win. Not relying on a single player to perform increases the chances Duke wins a clinical victory with constant offensive pressure on the Fighting Illini’s defense.
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If a team has a good bench, it never hurts to use it — especially with March Madness right around the corner.
Watch those rebounds: Early in the season, the Blue Devils tended to fall behind in the first half before coming back in the second. As the team progresses to the business end of this season, its prowess in rebounding will be crucial to keeping pressure on opponents. Duke, on average, has averaged 38.5 rebounds per game to its opponents’ 30.3. Illinois has a higher margin, however, leading opponents 43.8 to 33.7. For leading rebounders such as Flagg, Maluach and graduate guard Sion James, it might be a tall yet manageable order to dominate the glass Saturday.
Don’t get cocky: The Blue Devils’ 23-3 record is impressive compared to the Fighting Illini’s 17-10, but overconfidence could bring it all down. Duke’s away record currently stands at 8-1, while Illinois is 4-5. Although Scheyer’s men will not have to face the pressures of a charged-up away crowd, they won’t have Cameron Crazies around to provide a morale boost either. Despite being a superior team, the Blue Devils should ensure success doesn’t go to their heads, lest they meet the same fate they did against No. 18 Clemson. -Samanyu Gangappa
X-Factor
Duke: Isaiah Evans
For most people, the third time's the charm. For Isaiah Evans, the fourth time is the best time. The 6-foot-6 freshman’s most recent performances have followed a pattern: one great game and three not-so-great games. Against Illinois, Evans has the opportunity to break that pattern and prove consistency off the bench.
Against Boston College, Syracuse and Virginia, Evans dominated the court. Launching double-digit points and gathering rebounds, his presence helped define the winning outcomes. Most recently, against the Cavaliers, Evans exhibited an all-around game, draining five shots from beyond the arc coupled with three rebounds and two blocks. However, in the prior three games, the Blue Devil struggled to find his rhythm and often faded into the background. His scoring dips have sometimes called into question his ability to be a stable attacker for Scheyer’s roster.
Heading to Madison Square Garden, the Huntersville, N.C., native needs to break this pattern and show dependability. Especially with the tournament looming ahead, Duke’s depth will be a key factor to outplaying opponents with unlimited athleticism off the bench. If Evans can replicate his deep shooting and defensive prowess in New York, he could deliver in back-to-back games and solidify his role as a crucial game-changer.
Illinois: Kasparas Jakucionis
The Lithuanian freshman has been a key centerpiece of the Illinois rotation. Entering the college basketball circuit, Jakucionis exploded on offense, scoring double-digit totals often in the 20-point range. However, coming into the new year, the freshman has struggled to continue executing similarly dominant performances.
In Illinois' most recent matchup, Wisconsin held Jakucionis to six points and forced seven turnovers. Ohio State caused a similar disturbance, holding the 6-foot-6 guard to eight points and forcing four turnovers. His struggles maintaining possession are a weakness that Duke's high-intensity defense and on-ball pressure have the potential to exploit. However, even in his struggles, the 18-year-old has a lot to offer as a playmaker and creative scorer, leading his team in assists and points.
The Fighting Illini face a few strong opponents before entering the tournament, and No. 3 Duke holds the highest ranking among them. To prove Illinois deserves a spot and recognition as a threat in the March Madness bracket, it will have to put up a strong fight against the Blue Devils — and part of that outcome will be determined by what Jakucionis offers on the court. -Lucy Glynn
Samanyu Gangappa is a Trinity sophomore and local/national news editor for the news department.