As No. 3 Duke looks to get back in the win column, the Blue Devils will take on Cal at home Wednesday. The Blue Zone has a preview of the Golden Bears and X-Factor for both squads:
Overview
2023-24 record: 13-19, 9-11 in the Pac-12
2024-25 record: 12-12, 5-8 in the ACC
Head coach: Mark Madsen
History: Series tied 2-2
Last meeting: 87-52 Duke, Nov. 21, 2019
Duke will host Cal for only the fifth time in program history and for the first time in conference play following the Golden Bears’ jump to the ACC. The infrequency with which the two teams play makes the fact that the Blue Devils last fell to Cal in 1993 somewhat less surprising. The freshman trio of Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach has yet to lose in Cameron Indoor Stadium and will aim to continue that streak Wednesday barring an unexpected breakdown. Coming off a disappointing loss to Clemson Saturday night, Duke will be determined to close out its final eight games.
Cal has been especially poor in matchups against ACC teams and with a significant size disadvantage against Duke, will need a miracle to see its record to move to 13-12. However, the Golden Bears have twice defeated an N.C. State team that gave the Blue Devils trouble in the first half of their Jan. 28 matchup and forced one of Duke’s most difficult games this season.
Cal’s best offensive player, sophomore guard Andrej Stojakovic, is averaging 17.9 points per game this season, but is still recovering from a hip injury and has been limited to 10 or fewer points in his last four appearances. Without Stojakovic at full strength, the Golden Bears’ attack will be significantly hindered, something they cannot afford against a high-end Blue Devil defense.
3 Keys
Attack the basket early: Cal’s porous defense allows 107.8 points per 100 possessions, a ratio that Duke could easily worsen on Wednesday if the Blue Devils play aggressive from tipoff and work inside the arc. The Golden Bears’ current starting lineup is listed at the following heights: 6-foot-7, 6-foot-9, 6-foot-1, 6-foot-2 and 5-foot-11 for an average of just over 6-foot-3. Duke’s starters are listed at an average height of more than 6-foot-8 with none shorter than 6-foot-6. As with most other teams, given that the Blue Devils are one of the tallest NCAA squads, Cal’s defenders will have an extremely difficult time matching up with Duke. If the Blue Devils can establish a paint presence early and get the ball into the hands of forwards and centers, the Golden Bears will be forced to double, which should result in easy baskets.
Limit Blacksher and Stojakovic: Senior Jovan Blacksher Jr., Cal’s starting point guard, hasn’t played especially well this season, averaging 11.3 points on 35.7% shooting and contributing very little elsewhere on the stat sheet. That said, he’s coming off a good week. Blacksher put up 20 and 18 points, respectively, on much-improved 43% and 50% shooting splits against ACC opponents in Syracuse and the Wolfpack.
It remains to be seen how healthy Stojakovic will be in this matchup. He has played full minutes in three of his last four outings, but his shooting has been very poor, converting on no more than 31.3% of his shots in a game since Jan. 15. Duke needs to be aware that the 6-foot-7 guard could go off at any moment and shouldn’t discount his offensive abilities regardless of health.
By keeping these two in check, the Blue Devils should aim to shut down the Cal offense and could easily limit the Golden Bears to under 70 points.
Tune out the noise: ESPN analytics gives the Blue Devils a 98.1% chance to win this game and KenPom ranks the Golden Bears as the unimpressive No. 126 team in the country. However, Duke needed an all-time performance from Cooper Flagg to fend off a strong comeback bid from another fairly weak ACC opponent in Notre Dame. The Blue Devils also lost to the Tigers and showed signs of struggle against N.C. State. Duke should approach Cal like any other team and treat the visiting group as a serious opponent.
The Blue Devils will especially need to avoid a performance reminiscent of the one against the Wolfpack to ensure what could be a very smooth and stressless win. Head coach Jon Scheyer should avoid settling into backup rotations and play starters until a very comfortable lead is established. On-court personnel is doubtful to be an issue as Duke has largely done a good job staying disciplined against weaker opponents this season — Notre Dame, N.C. State and Clemson have been the only unranked teams to play close games against the Blue Devils since Flagg arrived in Durham — but it is still a factor that must be monitored.
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