Duke women’s basketball takes on archrival North Carolina Thursday in a matchup between two top 20 teams. The Chronicle previews the encounter with an overview, key stat, X-Factor and keys to the game:
Overview
2023-24 record: 20-13, 11-7 in the ACC
2024-25 record: 13-3, 1-2 in the ACC
Head coach: Courtney Banghart
History: North Carolina leads 55-53
Last meeting: 63-59 North Carolina, March 3, 2024
The 19th-ranked Tarheels host the Blue Devils following a disappointing 10-point loss in Chapel Hill against No. 3 Notre Dame — the ACC’s powerhouse. The additional two losses on North Carolina’s resume come from ranked defeats to UConn and Georgia Tech. Beyond those three losses against top teams, there isn’t much on the Tar Heels’ schedule to scoff at: Coach Banghart’s squad has comfortably handled several mid-major programs and even conquered then-No. 14 Kentucky with a 19-point victory in early December.
While North Carolina’s two losses place it in the middle of the pack in current ACC standings, only Duke and the two teams responsible for its conference losses sit above the program in the most recent AP Poll.
The in-state rivals split their two matchups last season, each earning a victory on their respective home courts. In the first showdown in Cameron Indoor Stadium, a tight 53-53 draw at the end of regulation took the match to overtime, where Blue Devil head coach Kara Lawson’s squad finished the job. Duke was able to take the Tar Heels to the wire in the next meeting at Chapel Hill, but ultimately fell 63-59.
As North Carolina looks to improve their conference record and take over this year’s iteration of the Tobacco Road saga, Banghart’s team will suit-up for the Chapel Hill half of the rivalry ready to put up a fight. -Colton Schwabe
Key Stat
Generally, a higher assist/turnover ratio corresponds to better offense and, therefore, better basketball. In Duke’s recent 69-31 clobbering of Pittsburgh, the Blue Devils’ 1.06 assist/turnover ratio sat just under their season average of 1.12. Pitt, on the other hand, had 29 total turnovers and a detrimental 0.21 assist/turnover ratio, representing its inefficiency in its worst offensive performance this season. North Carolina has the edge thus far into the reason on assist/turnover ratio, but Lawson’s defensive tactics may tip this statistic in Duke’s favor Thursday.
X-Factor
Duke: Delaney Thomas
For Thomas, the Tar Heels have previously sparked a unique fervor. As the Blue Devils head to rival territory, a similar intensity can be expected to become a game-changer. Last season, the freshman from Charles Town, W.Va., experienced season highs in points, minutes, field goals made and field goals attempted in the Feb. 11 home matchup against North Carolina. Now one year older, she brings a new toolbox of experience that could set her up to have another dominant game.
A starter for the team, Thomas has shown dominance on both ends of the court. In the past two matchups, she’s stopped second attempts by using her 6-foot-3 stature to grab rebounds, averaging 4.2 per game. Offensively, however, is where Thomas stands out. In Duke’s most recent matchup versus Pittsburgh, she went 5-for-5 to contribute 10 points. Her efficiency has made her a player to watch this season. Away from Cameron Indoor, the forward has a 69.6% field goal rate, demonstrating that Thomas thrives on the road.
With freshman sensation Toby Fournier’s health status unknown following an injury against Boston College, Thomas will need to step up to manage the loss within the forward position. If her shooting efficiency and explosiveness on opposing courts remain consistent, her all-around impact could help the Blue Devils secure a critical rivalry win.
North Carolina: Alyssa Ustby
In her final year at North Carolina, Ustby’s leadership on and off the court has been critical to her team’s success. With the rivalry game ahead, Ustby has the opportunity to guide her team to a home victory against the Blue Devils with a chance to solidify her legacy.
For the past three consecutive years, the guard has been a top performer for her squad — and this year proves to be no different. As the team’s second-leading scorer, Ustby averages 11.4 points per game. Power is in the paint for the Rochester, Minn., native. The leading rebounder for the Tar Heels, Ustby averages 9.3 per game. Her dominance around the rim has made her a key playmaker, ensuring that baskets fall for North Carolina while preventing any second-chance opportunities for opponents.
Against a Duke team that can struggle to gain momentum at the start of games, Ustby’s experience and athleticism could stifle the Blue Devils’ ability to get ahead. Her expert rebounding and ability to force turnovers could also expose opponent weaknesses in transition while preventing any second-chance opportunities. Utsby’s ability to set the pace of the game could be pivotal for preventing Duke from finding its rhythm and ensuring one last home rivalry victory before she leaves Chapel Hill. -Lucy Glynn
3 Keys
Limit turnovers: To improve its chances against North Carolina, Duke must focus on significantly reducing turnovers, especially after committing 17 in its last game against Pittsburgh. Turnovers not only limit scoring opportunities but also provide the opposing team with easy transition opportunities, often leading to quick points. To address this, Duke must prioritize tighter ball handling, sharper decision-making and improved communication on the court. Smarter passes and a greater awareness of defensive pressure will be crucial. Additionally, maintaining composure, particularly in high-pressure situations, will help prevent unnecessary mistakes. By minimizing turnovers, the Blue Devils can increase their time of possession, control the pace of the game and boost their offensive efficiency. All will be essential to keeping the game competitive against a strong Tar Heel team.
Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds: Duke must place a strong emphasis on rebounding to stay competitive against North Carolina, whose leading rebounder, Alyssa Ustby, averages 9.3 rebounds per game. Duke’s top rebounder, Jadyn Donovan, averages only 6.8 per game. The Tar Heels’ offensive rebounding strength, at an average 12.3 rebounds per game, highlights the need for Duke to focus on defensive rebounding to limit second-chance points. This effort will require a collective commitment from the entire team, with each player contributing to boxing out and aggressively attacking the boards. By narrowing the rebounding gap through teamwork and strategic positioning, Duke can reduce North Carolina’s scoring opportunities and increase its own chances of controlling the game and generating more offensive opportunities.
Moving forward: If freshman Toby Fournier’s availability remains uncertain due to the injury sustained against Boston College, Duke will need another forward to step up and fill the void to maintain its competitive edge. The forward position will be crucial, not only in terms of providing consistent scoring but also in contributing significantly to rebounding efforts. Fournier’s absence could leave a noticeable gap in Duke’s interior presence, making it essential for another player to rise to the occasion. This player must take on a larger role in both offensive and defensive sets, ensuring the Blue Devils can match North Carolina’s physicality and intensity inside the paint. Rebounding will be especially critical, as the Tar Heels have demonstrated strong inside play and second-chance scoring abilities. Without a strong, collective effort from the forward line, Duke’s ability to counteract North Carolina’s strengths, particularly in rebounding and controlling the tempo through inside scoring, could be seriously compromised. A forward stepping up will not only help stabilize Duke’s game plan but also provide the necessary support to keep the team competitive throughout the matchup. -Callan Perchinsky
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