As Duke and North Carolina prepare to clash in the latest edition of the Tobacco Road rivalry, the Blue Zone is here to give its insights on some key prop bets ahead of the game:
Duke (-13.5) vs North Carolina
This year, the iconic Duke-North Carolina rivalry takes on a different tone, as the second-ranked Blue Devils face a struggling Tar Heels squad that has dropped three of its last four games. This marks only the eighth time in the past century that North Carolina will enter its first matchup with Duke carrying at least nine losses — and history isn’t on their side, as they have never won at Cameron Indoor Stadium under these circumstances. While the Blue Devils are the clear favorite, the 13.5-point spread remains ambitious.
What does inspire confidence in Duke to cover is its shutdown defense and superb record at home. The Blue Devils enter the matchup third in KenPom defensive efficiency, ranking first in opponent shooting efficiency and fifth in opponent effective field goal percentage. Head coach Jon Scheyer has also instilled a disciplined defensive approach, with Duke ranking 11th nationally in free throws allowed.
Anchored by elite rim protectors Khaman Maluach and Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils will force North Carolina into perimeter shots — an area where the Tar Heels have struggled, ranking 177th in three-point attempts per game and 211th in three-pointers made. While 3-point variance could work in North Carolina’s favor, its struggles on the road suggest this may not be the game where its shots finally start falling. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the spread in their last five road games, so it’s hard to back them against a Duke team that is undefeated at home this season. All in all, if the Blue Devils stick to their formula, covering the spread should not be a problem. -Diego Greiff
Pick: Duke -13.5
Over/Under 149.5 points
This storied rivalry has historically been a high-scoring affair, with points flowing freely from both sides. Last year’s games saw total point totals of 177 and 163, comfortably clearing Saturday’s line of 149.5. However, there’s reason to believe this matchup could play out differently at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Duke enters with its best defensive ranking in years and features elite rim protection that’s altered the complexion of their games. Against teams ranked outside the KenPom top 30 offensively — where North Carolina sits at 48th — the Blue Devils have played consistently low-scoring games. On the other hand, The Tar Heels’ recent offensive struggles compound the case to take the under. Having lost three of their last four games, North Carolina’s offense has looked disjointed, particularly on the road where it stands 2-3 against ACC opponents this season.
Looking back at the rivalry’s history, when Duke entered with a top-5 defense and the Tar Heels’ offense ranked outside the top 30, the point total has fallen under 150 in five out of six games. While the two meetings last season suggest otherwise, those games featured a different North Carolina team that was clicking offensively.
The total of 149.5 feels inflated by rivalry history and recent head-to-head meetings; with the Blue Devils’ suffocating defense and the Tar Heels’ shooting woes away from home, the under looks like the play. -Amran Hudda
Pick: Under 149.5 points
Cooper Flagg over/under 30.5 points + rebounds
Don’t overthink it. Cooper Flagg has been nothing short of terrific this season, and will surely be the go-to guy once again against North Carolina. Duke has suffered a bit of offensive stagnation over the past few games, but the one constant producer has been Flagg, who has averaged 26.7 points and 6.3 rebounds in his last three appearances. In Power Four wins with margins of victory of 25 or less, Flagg has surpassed this line all but one game, with the lone exception being a 24-point, three rebound, six assist display against Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels have also struggled to defend high-usage frontcourt players, allowing Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud to post 25 points and 13 rebounds, while Georgia Tech’s Baye Ndongo tallied 19 points and 12 boards against them. Elite players rise to the occasion in big games, and with this being a favorable matchup for the Wooden Award favorite, taking the over feels like the obvious choice. -Greiff
Pick: Over 30.5 points + rebounds
Quick hitters to consider
Sion James over 2.5 assists: James has quietly become Duke’s primary facilitator, clearing this line in his last five games when playing over 25 minutes. With James taking on an expanded role in the Blue Devil offense, expect the senior guard to continue his stellar playmaking against a North Carolina defense that has struggled to contain dribble penetration.
RJ Davis over 15.5 points: The Tar Heels will struggle to consistently get good looks, which might force them to resort to heavy 3-point volume and end-of-shot-clock looks for Davis. While this might not be his most efficient outing, expect there to be enough volume for him to clear this line.
Ian Jackson under 18.5 points + rebounds + assists: As talented as Jackson is as a scorer, it’s hard to trust a freshman in his first career game at Cameron. Expect him to take a step back in this one.
Elliot Cadeau over 2.5 turnovers: Cadeau has surpassed this mark in seven of his last eight games, and facing Duke’s relentless defense, he’s likely to do it again.
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Kon Knueppel under 3.5 3-pointers made: Knueppel’s efficiency drops dramatically when facing higher-level competition, failing to hit this mark both against ranked opponents this season and in four out of the last five games. Expect Knueppel to continue his trend of struggling to find clean looks from beyond the arc.