With a punchy Pittsburgh team coming to town to take on No. 4 Duke, the Blue Zone is here with an overview of the Panthers, along with a key stat, x-factor and three keys to the game:
Overview
2023-24 record: 22-11, 12-8 in the ACC
2024-25 record: 12-2, 3-0 in the ACC
Head coach: Jeff Capel
History: Duke leads 13-6
Last meeting: 80-76 Pittsburgh, Jan. 20, 2024
Coached by former Duke guard and assistant coach Jeff Capel, Pittsburgh made a statement in Cameron Indoor Stadium last year, upsetting the Blue Devils 80-76. One of the lowest moments from the rollercoaster of a season, seared into the memories of Duke players and fans, is the infamous image of guard Blake Hinson standing on the media table in front of the silenced Cameron Crazies. His 24-point performance, along with 17 from freshman Jaland Lowe, stunned the home team in Durham.
Nearly a year later, the No. 4 Blue Devils have the opportunity to take revenge and defend their home turf properly. Now a sophomore, Lowe returns to star as the main antagonist of a guard-heavy Panthers offense, averaging 17.4 points and a team-leading 6.1 assists per game. His menacing accomplice is senior Ishmael Leggett, leading the team in both points and rebounds at 17.8 and 6.1 per game, respectively. Pittsburgh also boasts some length on the inside, with starting center Guillermo Diaz Graham towering in at 7-foot and grabbing six boards per night.
Projected to finish seventh in the ACC, the Panthers have taken care of business thus far, knocking off Cal, Stanford and Virginia Tech en route to a 3-0 conference start. The out-of-conference schedule was a mixed bag; while it picked up an impressive overtime victory on the road against Ohio State and beat LSU at home, Pittsburgh was blown out by No. 17 Mississippi State and lost to Wisconsin at home. The advanced metrics like the Panthers significantly more than the AP voters, and given its recent successes in Durham, Pittsburgh poses probably the toughest ACC challenge remaining for Duke. -Luke Jovanovic
Key stat
All season long, both Duke and Pittsburgh have gotten better as the game progresses. The numbers reflect this reality for the Blue Devils, as they are averaging almost three points per game more in the second half than the first. However, most of their early offensive woes are erased by halftime, seen when Duke stormed back from being down by nine points early to lead at the half against No. 2 Auburn.
The difference between halves is even more noticeable for Pittsburgh, as the Panthers’ average second-half scoring is 7.6 points higher than the first half. In fact, their 45.4-point average in the second half is good for seventh in the nation. Pittsburgh showed its second half resilience against the Buckeyes, rallying from down as many as 12 points in the second half to force overtime. In the extra period, forward Zack Austin hucked a buzzer-beating three to complete the improbable comeback. With their tendency to surge late, don’t automatically count out the Panthers if Duke holds a significant first-half lead. -Jovanovic
X-Factor
Duke: Tyrese Proctor
When Duke takes on Pittsburgh Tuesday night, it will be a matchup of two excellent backcourts. The Panthers sport two impressive guards in Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett. For the Blue Devils, the responsibility of matching their output will likely fall on Proctor, as the junior will need to have a solid game on both ends to help Duke match up.
So far this season, the Panthers have done a good job protecting and distributing the ball, something head coach Jon Scheyer would like to see change against the Blue Devils. Proctor is more than capable on defense, and Duke fans likely remember him diving on the floor for a steal to help clinch a Sweet 16 win last season. The Sydney native will need to stay locked in at all times on Lowe and Leggett to avoid letting either member of the duo get hot. So far this year, Proctor averages 0.7 steals per game, and the Blue Devils would love to see that number jump up a few ticks against the Panthers.
On the other end of the floor, the guard has been a steadying presence all year for Duke. In what will likely be one of Duke’s toughest remaining games, Proctor may be called on to deliver tough buckets to stop inevitable Pittsburgh runs. This season, the junior has fit into his offensive role perfectly, averaging 11.4 points and two assists per contest. More importantly, his 3-point percentage has been among the conference’s best, as Proctor is shooting a sweet 45.5% from downtown this year. If the veteran staple sees a few fall early, Duke and the Cameron Crazies will have some much-needed juice.
Pittsburgh: Jaland Lowe
It’s hard to pick anyone other than Lowe here. The Missouri City, Texas, native has been among the nation’s best players this season, and he has served as the engine of the Pittsburgh offense. For Duke, he will certainly be the focus of the game plan in the build up to the game.
In one of his most recent games, the sophomore’s ability was on full display, as he went for 27 points and eight assists against Cal to push Pittsburgh to 2-0 in conference play. That showing is no anomaly, as Lowe has gone over 20 points five times this year with three coming against high-major opponents. As a result of his success, KenPom currently has him at No. 9 in the site’s Player of the Year rankings, making stopping him imperative.
The Texas product is not invincible however. Lowe’s kryptonite has been his shooting splits, as he is only shooting 38.5% from the field this season. This is roughly the same mark as his freshman campaign, but the disparity between the two comes from his 3-point success. This year, he is shooting just 26.3% from beyond the arc, a number that dampens his excellent year just slightly. Last year, Hinson went nuclear from deep to bury the Blue Devils at home. If his former teammate has a similar performance to complement the rest of his game, Duke could be in major trouble.
-Caleb Dudley
3 Keys
Second-half surge: The Blue Devils and the Panthers have both dabbled in ACC comebacks, so don’t rule out new fire after halftime. Duke beat a 14-point deficit against Louisville to open its conference slate, while Pittsburgh overcame a 16-point deficit en route to a recent 86-74 win against Cal. Neither team should mistake a quick start for easy victory.
If Scheyer’s squad wants to walk away with a convincing win, it should grab an early lead and then focus on growing the distance. The Blue Devils must stay aggressive on offense and break up runs, lest the Panthers pounce as the clock winds down.
Point parity: Duke’s defense will have its hands full with two high-profile Pittsburgh scorers. Jalen Lowe boasts an average of 20.5 points per game in ACC play, while both he and Ishmael Leggett average just over 17 points per game across the season. Meanwhile, Flagg has led a dominant Blue Devil offense against the team’s early ACC slate, averaging 20.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and three assists in four games. Duke would do well to hone other offensive opportunities against the Panthers, namely those offered by Isaiah Evans and Sion James, who linger just shy of double-digit point averages on the season. Though Pittsburgh arguably hasn’t faced a team with the Blue Devils’ defensive capabilities, it has still proven it has several players who can rack up points.
Shoot sharp: Duke and Pittsburgh boast identical 3-point averages at 35.9% each. Whichever can find an advantage in the paint or around the rim may therefore find an easier path to victory. Advanced statistics show that Flagg has a 51.4% average in the paint (well above the Division I average), despite only taking 20.8% of his shots from that area. Increasing his paint touches could deliver quick points and give the Blue Devils some breathing room ahead of the Panthers. It could also result in more Duke success at the 3-point line by ensuring those shots are taken by players with better averages from deep. -Abby DiSalvo
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Abby DiSalvo is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.