As Duke men’s basketball prepares for its biggest game of the season against archrival North Carolina, The Chronicle previews the highly-anticipated matchup with an overview, key stat, X-Factor and 3 keys for Duke:
Overview
2023-24 record: 29-8, 17-3 in the ACC
2024-25 record: 13-9, 6-4 in the ACC
Head coach: Hubert Davis
Series history: North Carolina leads, 85-66
Last meeting: 84-79, North Carolina, March 9, 2024
This Saturday, No. 2 Duke hosts unranked North Carolina in the first rivalry showdown of the 2024-25 season. The Tar Heels defeated the Blue Devils in both matchups last year, ending the season at the top of the ACC and No. 7 in the AP Poll. However, North Carolina ultimately fell to Alabama in the Sweet 16, while rivals Duke and N.C. State outlasted the Tar Heels in the tournament, leaving head coach Hubert Davis with a taste for revenge.
However, the Tar Heels’ current season has proven to be less than successful. North Carolina has already lost four games in the ACC and has been a constant victim of the SEC’s dominance this season, with losses to Auburn, Alabama and Florida. Adding salt to the wound, the team has long since fallen from the ranks of the AP Poll, no longer even receiving votes.
Davis’s downfall this season seems to lie in an inability to make a smooth transition from the 2023-24 season, especially after the losses of veteran starters Armando Bacot, Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan.
Key stat
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Throughout the season, both the Blue Devils and the Tar Heels have faced off against some of the best teams in college basketball. With Duke playing four ranked opponents and North Carolina five, it would be difficult to claim that either team has had an easy schedule thus far. However, while the Blue Devils have fallen to only two of their ranked foes, the Tar Heels have lost to all but one, UCLA. Even then, North Carolina only beat the then 18th-ranked Bruins by just two points.
Neither Duke nor North Carolina are strangers to pressure — as part of one of the most intense rivalries in college basketball, they’re used to the spotlight. But when the going gets tough, the Blue Devils have routinely demonstrated they can perform under pressure and even overcome deficits to win, while the Tar Heels have struggled to pull out victories in their biggest games. -Kate Reiniche
X-Factor
Duke: Cooper Flagg
Duh. The former top recruit and eight-time ACC Rookie of the Week is, unsurprisingly, the expected difference-maker against North Carolina. While his accolades speak for themselves, Duke’s most recent matchup reminded everyone just how vital the freshman is to the team’s mechanics and success.
Since the first regular season game, eyes were focused on the young Blue Devil. Against Maine, 18 points, seven rebounds and five assists foreshadowed the dominance that was to come this season. While games against top opponents Kentucky and Kansas served as a learning opportunity for the emerging college athlete, as the winning streak grew, so did his confidence and comfort. However, this past week the freshman faced the reality of North Carolina rivalries. In the first halves against Wake Forest and N.C. State, Flagg struggled to find his rhythm. His usual explosiveness was absent in the early minutes, and the Maine native posted his lowest 3-point shooting rate of ACC play, hitting just 1-of-6 attempts from beyond the arc against the Demon Deacons. Against the Wolfpack, his first-half field-goal clip dropped to 28.6%, well below his season average of 48.7%.
Facing the most pressure of his Duke career, Flagg must execute. His continued athleticism and dominance on the court are critical for any win, but his resilience and ability to focus will determine the outcome of this rivalry game. If he can channel both, the Cameron Crazies will surely witness a night to remember — benches burned, North Carolina domination and eruptions of cheers every time he puts points on the board.
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North Carolina: RJ Davis
This game will be one last chance for Davis, a perennial rivalry villain, to enter Cameron Indoor Stadium and silence the crowd. The Tar Heel senior has already seen success in this historic clash, with three previous wins on Duke’s home court. He arrives Saturday looking to tack on one more.
For Davis, this game is a culmination of rivalry, experience and dominance. In his final year with North Carolina, he stepped up to be the scoring leader, averaging 17.7 points per game. Beyond his ability to find the bucket, Davis has been a cornerstone of the team, ranking among the roster’s top three in both steals and assists. Reflecting on his previous matchups at Cameron Indoor, he has shown versatility. He’s been both an explosive scorer — dropping 21 points to secure a win during the 2021-22 season — and a steady contributor, adding nine points, two rebounds and three assists in last season’s upset of the Blue Devils.
This weekend, Davis’ last away matchup in Durham presents a new threat that experience may not account for: Flagg. The dominance of the freshman this season has positioned Duke to be a powerhouse it hasn’t been in years. However, while Flagg’s talent has led Duke on a winning run, he’s a newcomer to the intensity of this rivalry. Davis, on the other hand, knows what it takes to thrive in the chaos this game brings, and his experience may be the key to another Tar Heel win. -Lucy Glynn
3 Keys for Duke
Keep the crowd loud: Undeniably, Cameron Indoor Stadium remains one of the top environments in college basketball. The Cameron Crazies have a way of creating an atmosphere that can overwhelm even the most seasoned opponents. The yearly Duke versus North Carolina is always more than just a game — the matchup holds true as one of the most storied rivalries in sports. While the adage goes that only eight miles separate the two Tobacco Road schools, their rivalry has shaped North Carolina history. Over the years, it has helped define not just the two programs, but the entire landscape of college basketball. Together, both schools have claimed a combined 92 ACC championships, including 52 regular-season titles — this accounts for more than half of all ACC championships.
In this matchup, every shot is scrutinized, every rebound matters and every defensive stop feels like a pivotal moment. The Blue Devils thrive in this environment, knowing that the intense rivalry can turn the smallest advantage into a game-changing opportunity. With the crowd on edge of its seat and every fan hanging on the next play, Duke will look to harness the pressure and push its rivals to the brink, looking to add yet another ACC championship, foreshadowing a deep March Madness run.
Rankings don’t matter in a rivalry: In the last 12 matchups, North Carolina has held a slim advantage, a 7-5 edge. This time, Duke holds the advantage — his name is Cooper Flagg. Flagg, who quickly became one of the most hyped prospects in college basketball, steps into a unique position; not only is he expected to lead the Blue Devils to a dominant season, but he also holds the key to keeping the rivalry firmly in Duke’s corner. The 6-foot-9 star, however, must know better than to assume anything. Shots will not sink, balls will run loose and things may not go his way — that is just the nature of this rivalry game.
Despite North Carolina’s unranked status, the Tar Heels will hardly be an easy opponent. The second-ranked Blue Devils will have to work hard in their own home to prove victorious. Flagg brings a new dimension to a rivalry that’s already brimming with talent and emotion. As the Blue Devils look to reclaim control of Tobacco Road, it’s clear that Flagg’s impact could make all the difference when the final buzzer sounds.
Strong center performance: In yet another in-state showdown against Wake Forest Jan. 25, Duke found itself navigating a challenging game without key contributors Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba II, both of whom were plagued by severe foul trouble. With the Blue Devils forced to adjust, the absence of their interior defense created a noticeable void in the paint. The usual man-to-man defense was abandoned in favor of an unfamiliar zone.
When Maluach found himself sidelined during the Blue Devils' Jan. 27 close win against N.C. State, he left head coach Jon Scheyer with limited bench depth to work with. The depth issues only compounded Duke's defensive struggles, as the lack of size and physicality in the paint became more apparent with each substitution.
Heading into a crucial rivalry game, Duke’s defense will be under intense scrutiny. The Blue Devils must stay out of foul trouble and find ways to compensate for any absence of their big men. In a game where every possession counts, the ability to adapt and remain resilient in the face of adversity will be key — especially with such high stakes. If Duke is to avoid another breakdown in the paint, it will need Maluach and Ngongba on the floor for as long as possible. -Callan Perchinsky