Column: How has Cooper Flagg performed offensively through 13 games, according to advanced statistics?

Duke basketball is historically known for its exceptional recruiting. The Blue Devils come into each season with one of the best, if not the best, freshman classes in Division I basketball. These classes have included several future NBA lottery picks, the most recent of which being Paolo Banchero in 2022 and Dereck Lively II in 2023.

The next player up in this prestigious line is freshman forward Cooper Flagg. A 6-foot-9 basketball phenom, Flagg recently put up a dominant 24-point performance against Virginia Tech. The Newport, Maine, native is Duke’s leader in nearly every major statistical category — points, rebounds, assists and blocks (Flagg is second in steals) — and has been an integral piece to a Blue Devil squad hoping to contend for a national title. 

How has Flagg’s impact translated into advanced statistics? Specifically, how has he performed as a shooter, and which lineups have been the best for Duke’s young star?

Shooting: Promise in the paint

CBB Analytics divides field-goal attempts into five regions — at the rim, in the paint, midrange twos, corner threes and above break (non-corner) threes. The website defines at the rim as within 4.5 feet of the rim. 

Flagg has shown a strong willingness to spread out his shooting across all areas of the floor. For example, he takes 20.2% of his field-goal attempts from the midrange, which is 11.1 points higher than the NCAA Division I average. Figure 1, created by CBB Analytics, displays a heat map of Flagg’s shots by region, with blue indicating a lower tendency relative to the Division I average and red indicating the opposite.

Figure 1

As shown, Flagg is an above-average shooter in the paint, but has been relatively inefficient in other areas thus far. The Blue Devils could benefit overall from more paint scoring — they make 48.2% of their shots in the paint, over seven points above the Division I average, yet only take 14.2% of their shots in this region, which is 4.5% below average. 

Going forward, Flagg would benefit from more paint touches. An improved 3-point shot would also be nice, but it’s not like Duke is short on shooters this season thanks to the likes of Isaiah Evans, Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor. While Flagg’s midrange jumpers are a strong part of his game, he is not shooting them well enough to deprioritize paint shots in turn.

Which players best compliment Flagg?

Duke has run several lineups this season thanks to a rotation that has gone nine deep for much of the season. As such, it is natural to wonder where Flagg “fits in” to this Blue Devil team. One tool to assess this is net rating, which measures a team’s points scored minus points allowed, averaged per 100 possessions. For example, if a team had a net rating of plus-six, that would mean the team scored six more points than it allowed every 100 possessions. 

Figure 3 displays the net rating of each five-player lineup Flagg has played at least 40 minutes with. 

Figure 3

Lineup 1: James, Proctor, Knueppel, Flagg, Maluach

Lineup 2: Foster, Proctor, Knueppel, Flagg, Maluach

Lineup 3: James, Proctor, Knueppel, Brown, Flagg

Lineup 4: Foster, Proctor, Knueppel, Brown, Flagg

Duke’s starting lineup since its Dec. 4 victory against Auburn, which saw Sion James replace Caleb Foster at point guard, has clearly been the best lineup Flagg has played with, according to net rating. The James-Proctor-Knueppel-Flagg-Malauch lineup has a plus-28.9 net rating, ranking in the 76th percentile nationally for Division I basketball.

In addition to the change at point guard, the variation in these lineups appears to depend on whether Maliq Brown or Khaman Maluach is playing with Flagg in the frontcourt. Given that Brown and Maluach have been on the court together for just two minutes this season, it warrants an apples-to-apples comparison. Figure 4 shows Duke’s offensive and defense rating when Flagg and Maluach or Brown are on court together. Offensive rating measures points scored per 100 possessions, while defensive rating measures points allowed per 100 possessions. A higher offensive rating and lower defensive rating are best.

Figure 4

So far, the freshman duo of Flagg and Maluach has been exceptional on both ends of the floor. The Blue Devils’ offensive rating of 125.5 when the two are on the floor ranks in the 96th percentile nationally, and their defensive rating of 89.8 ranks in the 97th percentile. Meanwhile, Duke’s offensive rating plummets by 14.3 points when Flagg and Brown are both on the court. 

A possible explanation for the gap in offensive efficiency is Maluach’s presence in the low post. The 7-foot-2 freshman takes 74% of his shots within 4.5 feet at the rim, and makes shots from this region at an incredible 86.5% clip. The attention Maluach commands takes some off of Flagg, who is free to space the floor more. When Maluach sits and Flagg plays, the latter attempts 4.3 3-pointers per 40 minutes and makes them at a poor 22.7% clip. However, when both are on the court, Flagg attempts 5.3 3-pointers per 40 minutes on 30.8% shooting, showing improved volume and efficiency. 

This figure points to the importance of the Flagg-Maluach tandem down the stretch, but not at the expense of Maliq Brown’s role on the Blue Devils. Flagg and particularly Brown are viewed by many as principally defensive players, and Duke has an exceptional 91.1 defensive rating when both are on the court. 

So far, the numbers back Flagg as one of college basketball’s best players in the 2024-25 season. He may not be the best scorer, playmaker or defender in the sport, yet he does all three at a strong level. Flagg’s versatility, as well as improved shot selection, will prove critical in elevating the Blue Devils to championship heights as they build up their resume.