Duke women's basketball midseason check-in: Takeaways from the Blue Devils' start and a 2025 preview

Duke women's basketball is off to a 10-3 start in its 2024-25 campaign.
Duke women's basketball is off to a 10-3 start in its 2024-25 campaign.

No. 14 Duke women’s basketball is off to a strong start in its 2024-25 campaign. Before the Blue Devils kick off the rest of their ACC slate Jan. 2, The Chronicle’s beat writers are here to answer questions about the team’s performance thus far and keys to a successful second half: 

Who/what has been the biggest surprise so far?

Jordan Wood: It’s certainly not uncommon for freshmen to see improvements in their sophomore season, but the scale of how much Wood has progressed is extremely impressive. Across her entire rookie season, the Chicago native scored just 19 points. She shattered that total in just two games this year. Wood has scored double figures four times this year with excellent efficiency — 60% from the floor, 36.8% from three — and has played good defense on a defensive-oriented team. As the Blue Devils enter their ACC slate, Wood’s ability to contribute 15-20 strong bench minutes should be crucial in bolstering Duke’s deep rotation. -Tyler Walley

The offense: In seasons past, Duke typically earned wins through its suffocating defense; scoring, while always important, was never central to the team's identity. Yet, in Kara Lawson’s fifth season, the Blue Devils have transformed into a legitimately high-octane offense, averaging 80.7 points per game — 25th best in the nation and a near 13-point jump from 2023-2024. Looking at this squad’s success thus far, it’s not too difficult to pinpoint what exactly has changed. While players such as Jordan Wood and Ashlon Jackson have made major strides in their offensive development, newcomer Toby Fournier has led Duke in scoring, averaging 13.1 points per game off the bench. And if their defense remains elite, the Blue Devils reinvigorated offense may be what takes them to new heights. -Alex Min

What is the biggest question mark going into the second half?

Defensive identity: Lockdown defense has been the hallmark of Lawson’s tenure in Durham thus far, and the team’s tenacity is unquestionable. However, with the loss of freshman center Arianna Roberson prior to the start of the season and the graduation of Kennedy Brown and Camilla Emsbo in May, the Blue Devils no longer have a true center to anchor the halfcourt defense. Their absence in the post has hurt: Last season, Duke’s opponents averaged just 37% from the field, the second strongest mark in the ACC. This year’s squad has allowed opponents to score on 42% of attempts, falling to 16th in the conference. The backcourt has thrived on the defensive end, especially at forcing turnovers. Sophomore guard Oluchi Okananwa has been outstanding, averaging 1.9 steals per contest. However, Duke has remained vulnerable to teams that can attack the basket and score inside. Lawson will look to develop a more formidable defense in the new year, reminiscent of previous seasons but with a new look. -Sarah Muir

Consistency: Of the Blue Devils’ three losses, two of them make perfect sense. Maryland is a top-10 team in the country, and South Carolina … well, is South Carolina. On the other hand, South Florida … well, is South Florida — one of the better teams in the AAC, yes, but not the type of team Duke can excuse a loss to. Inexplicable losses have pockmarked the otherwise stellar tenure of Kara Lawson to this point, notably falling to Davidson last season. Hopefully for the Blue Devil faithful, the game against the Bulls will be a one-time performance this season, but if they put up more games like that throughout the rest of the season or during the NCAA Tournament, they won’t be a true title contender. -Myles Powicki

What is the most important game moving forward?

Notre Dame: In order to be the best, you have to beat the best. It’s certainly a cliché, but Duke’s Feb. 17 journey to South Bend, Ind., will prove to be a true trial by fire. Sophomore guard Hannah Hidalgo has made a strong case to be the best player in the entire country, averaging 25.8 points per game on unbelievable efficiency. It’s not like the rest of the team is just along for the ride, as guards Sonia Citron and Olivia Miles have averaged double figures in scoring on great efficiency, too. The Blue Devils’ identity will be greatly tested here, as they have looked very shaky on the road so far. A characteristically big game from Toby Fournier would be welcome, but the veteran guard trio of Taina Mair, Ashlon Jackson and Reigan Richardson will principally need to outperform the Fighting Irish’s to keep Duke in this one. - Walley

Georgia Tech: After a disappointing season last year where they barely posted a winning record and did not make the NCAA Tournament, the Yellow Jackets have burst into the 2024-25 season with a vengeance and strong 13-0 start. Georgia Tech has relied on its impressive freshman Dani Carniege, who, despite not starting, currently leads the team in scoring. Juniors Kara Dunn and Tonie Morgan also both currently average double digits, giving the Yellow Jackets several offensive weapons. Last season, the Blue Devils welcomed Georgia Tech into Cameron Indoor Stadium and won 84-46. This season, Duke will make the short trip down to Atlanta to face off in McCamish Pavilion, a good test for a team whose losses have all come on the road. -Elle Chavis 

What must Duke focus on down the stretch to be successful?

Starting fast: As the Blue Devils continue on for the rest of their season, they cannot afford to get off to slow starts as they have in all three of their losses and in a few of their wins. Allowing opponents to continuously slip through their usually stalwart defense early in the first quarter or having a sloppy offensive start would assuredly spell disaster as Duke gears up for a difficult stretch of conference games. In hostile environments, the Blue Devils have struggled when they let the pace of games get away from them and dig themselves into holes early. Focusing on starting games with the same energy that they tend to finish them with will ensure that the tides of momentum stay in the Blue Devils’ favor and give them everything they need to be successful in the new year. -Chavis

Turnovers and transition: Duke entered the season as a favorite in women’s basketball, a notable shift from recent seasons. While their 10 wins have placed the Blue Devils atop the ACC, their three losses highlight two recurring weaknesses: turnovers and struggles in transition. Against South Carolina and South Florida, Duke committed 10 and 12 first-half turnovers, respectively, creating opportunities for opponents to get ahead and stay ahead. In the third quarter against Maryland, Duke managed just one point off the Terrapins’ five giveaways, while Maryland turned six Duke turnovers into 10 points. Similarly, against South Carolina, Duke trailed in points off turnovers, scoring 13 compared to the Gamecocks’ 23. As the Blue Devils prepare to face the most threatening teams of the regular season, they must refine their game to minimize turnovers. If they still find themselves trailing, they need to execute transitions to capitalize off key opportunities. Prioritizing these aspects will allow Duke to narrow any gaps they may face, positioning themselves to get ahead against top opponents. If they can remedy these weaknesses, their dreams of postseason success will remain within reach. - Lucy Glynn

What are your thoughts on the ACC, who are some teams to watch?

It’s a little tough to identify the strongest teams in the conference, because a lot of them haven’t really played high-end competition in their nonconference schedule. Notre Dame is pretty clearly the team to beat, with one of the best backcourt duos in the country in Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles. The Fighting Irish have taken down both UConn and Texas in their early-season matchups, although they also lost to both then-No. 17 TCU and Utah. North Carolina has also proven itself as a competitive team again this season with some decisive wins, although the Tar Heels are yet to upset a team ranked higher than them. The one surprise this year has been Georgia Tech, which has climbed to No. 13 in the rankings and beat North Carolina once already this season. Florida State also boasts a star guard in Ta’Niya Latson, who has been one of the best players in the nation so far this season, and it will be interesting to see if the Seminoles can find their footing. Overall, there will be a lot to prove for everyone as ACC competition gets underway. Any given team can win any given game, so the Blue Devils will need to take every opponent seriously. -Martin Heintzelman

What are your postseason expectations?

Women’s basketball is strange. Duke is one of the best teams in the country right now, and the suffocating defense the Blue Devils play can allow them to stick with just about anyone. Ultimately though, there is still a gap between Duke and the true top dogs. I think a reasonable ceiling for the Blue Devils is a loss in the ACC Championship (likely to Notre Dame) and then an exit from the NCAA Tournament in the Elite Eight. If Duke can tighten things up, especially defensively and down low, there might be more than that in store for the Blue Devils this season. But lacking a true center and still demonstrating a spotty offense, Duke will need to make a jump through conference play to truly be able to hang with the best of the best. -Heintzelman

As Martin said, college basketball is in an unpredictable state. However, I think that the Blue Devils have one of the highest floors in the ACC and NCAA, and are well on track to be one of the best teams in the country come March. To me, their high floor is attributable to one figure, Kara Lawson. Her teams have all featured top-shelf defense, a characteristic that is very strong at predicting postseason success, and by virtue of her being an outstanding coach, her team should peak at the right time. As the team enters the fray of another ACC slate, they should emerge a much stronger side than they are right now, battle tested and making a run to at least the ACC Tournament semifinals and a second-straight Sweet 16 appearance. Lawson might not have built one of the best teams in the country yet, but if she continues to recruit as well as she has and get the most out of her players, these high expectations for this team will become the floor for future squads. -Powicki 


Martin Heintzelman profile
Martin Heintzelman

Martin Heintzelman is a Trinity junior and Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.

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