For the final game of the season, Duke football takes on No. 16 Ole Miss in the Jacksonville TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. The Chronicle is here to break down the Rebels with stats to watch, X-factors and keys to the game:

Overview

Record: 9-3 (5-3 in the SEC)

Head coach: Lane Kiffin

Ole Miss heads into the Gator Bowl coming off a very good regular season that had the potential to be great. After a strong 11-win campaign in 2023 that saw the Rebels defeat Penn State in the Peach Bowl, head coach Lane Kiffin’s squad hoped to make the College Football Playoff in the inaugural year of the 12-team format. Indeed, Ole Miss appeared in control of its own destiny at 8-2 following a 28-10 takedown of Georgia Nov. 9, but a close loss to Florida the next week all but ended the team’s CFP hopes. Ultimately, the Rebels finished as the third team out of the dance behind Alabama and Miami, earning a spot in the Gator Bowl against Duke.

“[Kiffin] does an unbelievable job [at Ole Miss],” Duke head coach Manny Diaz said at a Dec. 10 press availability. “[I’ve] admired them for a while, and it’s a great challenge. It’s what we need, it’s the perfect step of where we are in building our program.”

The heart and soul of this Rebels team is its quarterback Jaxson Dart, who totaled 3,875 passing yards, fourth in the FBS. The senior averaged an astonishing 15.6 yards per completion while adding 452 yards and three scores on the ground. Dart, projected to be a late-round selection in the 2025 NFL draft, will look to finish off his prolific college career with a victory against the Blue Devils.

“[He’s an] unbelievable leader, teammate, friend to these guys,” Kiffin said of Dart. “I kind of think of him as like another son… he’s just amazing. I’m really proud of him.”

The Blue Devils’ offense ground to a frustrating halt at many points during the 2024 season, and much of that was thanks to an inability to run the ball. Duke averaged just 3.2 rush yards per attempt, one of the lowest marks in the NCAA, and was held to an average of 84 rush yards per game in its three losses. On the other side of the ball, the Rebels have allowed just 2.4 yards per rush attempt, the best mark in the FBS. This poses a nightmare matchup challenge for offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer, who will likely be forced to dial in a high number of passing plays for Belin.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss’ ability to run the ball was not exactly a strength in the 2024 season, but it certainly was not a weakness. Running back Henry Parrish Jr. totalled 678 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, and the Rebels’ offense as a whole averaged a healthy 4.6 rush yards per attempt. The Blue Devils sport a solid run defense of their own, but they struggled against premier ACC running backs like Georgia Tech’s Jamal Haynes and SMU’s Brashard Smith. Ultimately, football games are often won in the trenches, and Duke could certainly be competitive in the Gator Bowl if it limits the Rebels’ run game. -Walley

X-Factor

Duke: Chandler Rivers

In Duke’s 2024 season, Rivers has proved to be more than a cornerback — he’s a game-changer. The defensive agility of the junior has created chaos amongst opposing offenses as he’s forced crucial turnovers that have added to the dominant Blue Devil season.

The sole All-ACC first team selection from Duke, the Beaumont, Texas, native’s accolades underscore his dominance on the field. Rivers has become the cornerstone of the Blue Devil defense, leading the team with three interceptions this season including a pivotal pick-six against Florida State. His grab against the Seminoles was the catalyst for Duke’s first-ever victory against the squad. Rivers continued to initiate game-changing plays against Wake Forest, where he shut down a crucial Demon Deacon drive that would’ve put them in field-goal range. 

The Blue Devils seek to clinch another historic win, and Rivers has the opportunity to be the difference-maker for the team once again. Facing an Ole Miss offense led by star quarterback Jaxson Dart — who threw six interceptions this season — Rivers is primed to capitalize on the Rebels’ vulnerabilities. He thrives in high-intensity moments, making him a dangerous weapon for Duke’s defense. If he can lead with the same intensity he’s shown all season, the Blue Devils could walk away from the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl with a victory, cementing themselves as a rising force in football.

Ole Miss: Jaxson Dart

In an era of transfer portals and opt-outs, player participation in bowl games has become increasingly uncertain. However, despite Dart’s NFL potential, he will get to play one more with Ole Miss. 

“He said he was definitely playing and wanted to play his last game with these guys,” Rebel head coach Lane Kiffin said in a press conference.

The leadership by example of Dart ahead of this bowl game could be key, getting his teammates to show up and perform as they face the Blue Devils. Statistically, his season has rewritten record books. The Kaysville, Utah, native delivered six touchdowns and 515 passing yards against Arkansas to set a new school record for passing yards and tie the mark for touchdowns thrown in a single game. Dart’s ability to read the field and execution has led him to finish the season as the school’s all-time leader in passing yards. As Duke prepares to face Dart, it will need to understand that it is coming against one of the best passers in the college game right now. 

The record-setting quarterback heads to his likely final bowl game ready to finish what he has started. Although Dart excels on the stat sheet, 34.8% of his passes were defined as wide-open attempts, ranking seventh in the FBS. Against a formidable Duke defense, Dart’s opportunities may be more limited, testing his ability to adjust under high pressure. But if he can continue to lead with confidence and leadership, his impact can extend beyond the record books for a strong conclusion to his college career. -Lucy Glynn

3 Keys

Ease Belin into the game: One of the main storylines for the Duke offense going into this matchup is the absence of starting quarterback Murphy and backup Loftis. Both signal callers entered the transfer portal shortly after Selection Sunday. Starting under center for the Blue Devils will be sophomore Henry Belin IV, who made his last start in Duke's 24-3 win over N.C. State last year. Belin had made some appearances earlier this year against Middle Tennessee and Northwestern, but no competition similar to that of an SEC defense. 

“I’m really excited,” Belin said when asked about his feelings surrounding getting the nod to be the starter. “I think it is a great opportunity not only for me, but for this team to go out and prove that we are a playoff contending team, not only for this year, but for the future as well.”

Throughout the year the Blue Devils have struggled producing offense on the ground, averaging just 96.5 yards a game. Conversely, Ole Miss ranks second in rushing yards allowed a game, with an average of just 83.5. Duke may get stumped with any rushing attack, so Belin may have to get active with his arm. 

The Rebels have not fared well in defending through the air. Ole Miss is allowing 230.3 yards of offense through the air, leaving Belin the chance to be aggressive in the passing game. Easing Belin into the game with some slant and hitch routes, or even play action passes early on, will get the Blue Devils’ quarterback comfortable and allow him to make big time plays with his arm later on. Utilizing Belin's speed will also be crucial, so expect to see some early zone-option reads or designed runs — an approach not previously showcased by Murphy this season.

Get to Dart: Under center for Ole Miss is senior Jaxson Dart from Kaysville, Utah. Dart had found himself in early season Heisman conversations and will be highly touted by pro clubs in the next NFL Draft. Dart has thrown for 3,875 yards and 25 passing touchdowns this year, in large part thanks to his ability to make long explosive passes. His experience is seen in how he cares for the ball and is able to maintain his poise in the pocket. Dart is mobile as well, running for 452 yards and three touchdowns. His pocket awareness is also exceptional and is a huge strength for the Rebels’ offense. 

In Ole Miss’s Nov. 23 loss against Florida, which ultimately eliminated the Rebels from the College Football Playoff, the team’s offensive line failed to protect Dart in crucial moments in the game. Florida’s pass rush accounted for four sacks and nine tackles for loss in its win, exposing one of Ole Miss’s vulnerabilities. The Rebels’ line protected Dart at times, but ultimately the Gators’ defensive pressure led to Dart throwing two interceptions. Duke must play to its strengths on the defensive side of the trenches by pressuring Dart and forcing him into similar mistakes. 

Heading into its bowl game, Duke boasts one of the nation’s most dominant pass rushes, ranking fifth in the nation with an impressive 41 sacks. The Blue Devils have also forced 24 fumbles on the year. Against the Rebels, getting sacks and tackling behind the line of scrimmage will be crucial for any chance of a Duke victory. 

Limit big plays: Ole Miss comes into the matchup with another feather in its  cap — its elite passing offense. The Rebels are averaging 343.6 yards of passing offense per game, only behind Miami and Syracuse nationally. The Ole Miss receiving core was led by senior wide receiver Tre Harris; however, the Louisiana Tech transfer re-aggravated a leg injury against Florida and may miss the game against the Blue Devils. Sophomore Cayden Lee and senior Jordan Watkins have also contributed to the Rebels’ air attack, accounting for 817 and 726 receiving yards respectively. 

Duke’s secondary must be on its toes when Ole Miss attempts to stretch the field vertically through long passing attempts. The Blue Devil pass defense, led by All-ACC First Team cornerback Chandler Rivers, ranks first in the ACC in yards allowed at 194.8 yards a game and has only allowed 15 touchdowns through the air. However, the unit will have its hands full on Jan. 2 as they attempt to neutralize the lethal Ole Miss passing game. -Jerry Barajas