In Duke’s 70-48 win against Seattle, it held a team to less than 60 points for the fourth time this season. KenPom currently ranks Duke as the best defensive team in the country, a metric of which any team would be proud. Still, in two of the Blue Devils' three most difficult games this season, they came out on the losing end. So the question remains, how?
Coincidentally, the answer may also lie in Duke’s win against the Redhawks. Friday night, the Blue Devils shot just 23-of-58 from the field, including an abysmal 10-of-36 from behind the arc. To put it bluntly, wins will be hard to find, particularly against elite teams, when shooting under 40%. Throughout the season and especially against the Redhawks, Duke’s offense has not emphasized creating pressure inside. Against Kansas Tuesday night, 26 of the Blue Devils’ 48 shots were 3-pointers, and against Kentucky Nov. 12, Duke shot just 4-of-24 from deep.
“I thought we rushed shots and had too many turnovers [tonight]. We need to finish stronger, drive stronger, make extra passes,” head coach Jon Scheyer said.
His sentiment was echoed by some of the players, who thought the shot selection could have been much better, particularly during the first half in which Duke shot just 6-of-20 from three.
Most simply put, the Blue Devils have been “living and dying by the three,” per Tyrese Proctor.
But in an era of basketball where 3-pointers are king, what is the solution for Duke? A major reason for Tuesday’s defeat in Las Vegas was Kansas’ hot start to the night from behind the arc. The Jayhawks opened the game on a 16-3 run largely fueled by 3-point shooting, and Duke shot a remarkable 42.3% from deep in the game, a clip that should lead to success. The answer does not need to be a complete turn from the shot, but the Blue Devils have to start taking advantage of their top-tier defense and get inside on offense, rather than settle for 3-pointers.
There are few weak points in Scheyer’s main defensive rotation, particularly down low. Anchored by Cooper Flagg and either 7-foot-2 Khaman Maluach or reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year Maliq Brown, getting shots off inside is a challenge for opposing teams. On the perimeter, Proctor has been hailed for his elite defense, oftentimes taking away the value of elite scorers. The combination of shot-blocking down low with tough perimeter defense forces opposing teams into difficult, low-percentage shots, or turnovers. These defensive possessions should, and often do, lead to transition points for Duke, but in recent games they have not.
Despite forcing 16 turnovers Friday night, Duke scored just four points off of turnovers. Throughout the night, the ball would make its way down the court after a steal, and instead of driving for a layup or foul, the Blue Devils would force a 3-pointer.
On the bright side, the blueprint for Duke might have been in the opening to the second period of Friday’s game. The Redhawks did not score until after the second media timeout, and the Blue Devil lead increased from 12 to 25 in eight minutes. Of those 13 points, eight came from layups or dunks, two came from the line and three came from behind the arc.
After sophomore Caleb Foster missed a 3-pointer to open the half, he grabbed a defensive rebound on the other end and took it down the court by himself for an easy layup. The next possession, he stole the ball and passed it to Flagg, who then found him down the court for another fast-break layup. And in fairness to Duke, Proctor’s three during the run was also on a fast break, following a defensive rebound by Flagg. Scheyer need not completely stray away from the three, particularly when his offense boasts two elite shooters in Proctor and Kon Knueppel, but driving the ball inside must be the primary focus for the team.
“We have a good shooting team where we want to take a lot of threes, but we still have to fight for the rim, get fouled and get downhill,” Flagg said.
Flagg finished the game with under 10 points for just the second time all season, shooting just 2-of-7 from the field. His most successful moments came when he drove the ball, and did not settle for mid-range and 3-point jump shots. Five of his nine points came from the free-throw line, and his passing ability shines brightest when he gets inside the lane. Flagg is the team’s best player, and the offense running through his strengths is crucial to Duke’s success this season.
“Me micromanaging [the shots] isn't going to be the solution,” Scheyer said. “We have to let our guys continue to play positionless basketball, shoot open shots, drive closeouts and play strong in the paint. We just have to get back to practice.”
Up next for the Blue Devils is a massive matchup against No. 4 Auburn, the final contest before they begin ACC play. If Duke is going to find success, driving the ball inside with Flagg and forcing the Tigers into fouls is going to be critical, and Scheyer seems keen on making that happen.
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