On Saturday afternoon, Duke faced its second brutal defeat in a row, this time against No. 4 Miami. The Blue Devils led 28-17 at one point, but they coughed up the lead late in the third quarter and never regained it. When the fourth quarter rolled around, the Hurricanes simply overpowered Duke, scoring two touchdowns and forcing two turnovers, leading to a 53-31 final score.
Now, head coach Manny Diaz’s team looks ahead to a matchup against N.C. State in Raleigh, a team riding a two game win streak into the rivalry game. The Wolfpack had a tough start to the year; they unconvincingly beat Western Carolina before getting crushed in a 51-10 blowout against Tennessee. Following a quarterback injury and poor defense, N.C. State found itself sitting at 3-4, a disappointing record for a team that came into the season ranked with ACC Championship aspirations. Since then, however, the Wolfpack have rattled off wins against California and Stanford, with the latter ending 59-28.
Leading the resurgence has been new quarterback CJ Bailey. The freshman stud has been lights out this season, totaling a 157.0 passer rating through seven games. His arm strength and accuracy are eye popping, and if he has the time to get a strong throw off, the Duke defense should be worried. Bailey’s ability to throw the ball deep across the hashes gives N.C. State’s offense the ability to spread defenses out and create space for its weapons. Watch here as he drops a dime perfectly into the hands of his receiver 17 yards across the field. (3:13)
Watching that play, it is clear that Bailey can make the defense pay when given time. At the same time, he also excels in buying himself a few extra seconds. The Miami native scrambles very well, and he can also evade pressure to create space for himself to throw — and give his receivers time to get open. The Blue Devils have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season, best exemplified by Miami’s Cam Ward’s 400 yards passing and five touchdowns this past weekend. Watch here as Bailey gets out of the pocket and directs his receiver across the end zone to find him for a touchdown pass. (4:49)
Duke needs to continue to rush the quarterback effectively to win against the Wolfpack Saturday. The Blue Devils’ pass rush got home twice against the Hurricanes, and Diaz’s aggressive defensive mindset also forced two turnovers. Likewise, Duke must pressure Bailey throughout the day to keep him out of comfort.
On the other side of the ball, the Wolfpack defense has been abysmal this year. N.C. State has kept an offense under 20 points just once this year, and has given up more than 30 four times. For the Blue Devils, effectively running the ball has been a key to success this year, as the passing game has been inconsistent. The Wolfpack defense has struggled mightily against the run, with opponents averaging 152.4 yards per game on the ground this season. Duke’s two-headed monster of Peyton Jones and Star Thomas should look to run all over a weak attack, fresh off of a week in which Jones averaged almost six yards per carry. The N.C. State linebackers are often slow to react, so if the offensive line can get to the second level, look for the Blue Devil rushers to beat the Wolfpack secondary and run free. Take a look as Stanford’s Ashton Daniels breaks away for a 48 yard touchdown scamper. (6:07)
N.C. State hasn’t fared much better against the air attack either, as opponents have thrown for 14 touchdowns through nine games for an average of 233.4 yards per game. Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy has often looked to throw the ball deep down the field, particularly for star receiver Jordan Moore. Watch here as Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik scrambles away and launches a 30-yard ball to a wide open receiver in the end zone. (1:07)
Moore should be open on these types of routes Saturday afternoon, and if Murphy can connect on the shots, it could be a long day for the Wolfpack defense. If Duke plays aggressively on offense while keeping Bailey out of his comfort zone, it can return home from Raleigh with a win this weekend.
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