As Duke football prepares to take on Virginia Tech in its final home game of the season, the Blue Zone is here with some can't-miss prop bets for the game against the Hokies:
Duke (+3.5) vs. Virginia Tech
Duke cannot afford to be down in the fourth quarter in this game and rely on a comeback to win. Virginia Tech rushes for an average of 185.3 yards per game, the 35th-highest mark in the country. On the other side of the ball, the Duke run defense is relatively porous, allowing 149.3 yards per game, good for No. 72 nationally. The Hokies should be able to effectively kill the clock in a late-game situation, which could prove to be a challenge for a Blue Devil team that has been forced to come back in the fourth quarter more than once this season. I see a possible scenario in which the game is tied — or Virginia Tech is down by one or two points — and the Hokies are able to kick a field goal as time expires to win. Duke will need to do everything it can to avoid this situation, coming out of the gate strong and ensuring that the Hokies are trailing by at least a score late.
Quarterbacks facing the Virginia Tech defense have recorded an average completion percentage of 54.7, the 11th-worst mark in the country, so Duke signal-caller Maalik Murphy will likely need to complete many third-and-long situations to keep the offense on the field. The Hokies’ stinginess through the air means that Murphy will need to take risks and throw down the field; looking to drive on short slants or quick hook routes will be difficult. I think these risks pay off as Murphy connects for multiple long touchdown passes, forcing Virginia Tech to respond by throwing the ball, where the Blue Devil defense has an advantage. For that reason, I’ll take Duke to cover the spread.
Pick: Duke +3.5
Over/Under 46.5 total points
Virginia Tech averages 29.1 points per game, and Duke averages 26.8, so this matchup should make for a relatively high-scoring affair. The Hokies’ contests this year have had an average point total of 51.6 while the mark for Blue Devil games this season has been 48.9.
In games against Duke’s four strongest opponents this season — Miami, SMU, North Carolina and Georgia Tech — the Blue Devils have attempted an average of 38.5 passes. Expect a similar number to be reached Saturday, which should allow for more explosive plays and more scores than when head coach Manny Diaz and offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer decide to commit to the ground game, as they have against less formidable teams.
Pick: Over 46.5
Over/Under 9.5 first quarter total points
Knowing that the Virginia Tech run game is strong, the Blue Devils will be aggressive from kickoff to avoid a fourth-quarter showdown. Expect at least one Duke touchdown in the first 15 minutes and a Virginia Tech rushing score before the Hokies are forced to shift towards their passing game to compete with Murphy’s deep completions. Even though Diaz’s squad is all but out of ACC title contention, the team’s motivation to win should not be discounted. Receivers Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol, along with running back Star Thomas, have two games left in their college careers, and have no reason to leave anything left in the tank, especially if they want to get scouts’ attention before the NFL draft. The Blue Devils will aim to come out swinging and likely eclipse the first quarter total by themselves.
Pick: Over 9.5
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.