As Duke football travels to N.C. State to take on the Wolfpack, the Blue Zone breaks down some can’t miss prop bets from this ACC matchup:
Duke (+3.0) vs N.C. State
Duke and N.C. State have played no common opponents thus far, making the matchup slightly difficult to gauge, but what is certain is that the Blue Devil defense will have a stronger showing than it did in last week’s matchup against Miami’s number-one-ranked offense in the ACC. Expect coach Manny Diaz to let quarterback Maalik Murphy take further control of the offense after recording his highest QBR of the season against the Hurricanes, which could lead to splash plays and quick scores from receivers Jordan Moore and Samir Hagans.
If Duke can take the lead early off of Murphy touchdown passes, the Wolfpack will have difficulty clawing back and beating the Blue Devils by more than three points — as Duke has only lost once this season after scoring first. This line opened at Duke +3.5, and has now moved to Duke +3.0, indicating that bettors feel confident in the Blue Devil’s ability to cover the original spread. As an underdog this season, Duke has failed to cover only once, and that number shouldn't change against N.C. State.
Pick: Duke +3.0
Over/Under 51.5 total points
Despite the strength of Duke’s defense, expect a relatively high-scoring contest as the Blue Devils and Wolfpack are coming off their second-highest and highest offensive point-totals of the season, respectively. Duke scored 31 points in last Saturday’s loss against No. 4 Miami, while N.C. State steamrolled Stanford that same afternoon, finding the endzone eight times to put up 59 points. Murphy looked perhaps the best he has all year against the Hurricanes aside from his three interceptions — he attempted his third most passes in a game this season and threw for a career high 325 yards. Expect another high-volume game for Murphy since, with three ACC losses, Duke is no longer in title contention, so Diaz will likely look to continue building up Murphy’s confidence rather than opting for a more conservative style of play.
Although the Blue Devil defense is looking to bounce back after allowing a season-high 53 points and 400 yards through the air, N.C. State’s talented offense will be difficult to hold to under 20 points — which it will need to do for bettors to hit on the under. Murphy will be aggressive through the air, leading Duke to its third 30-plus-point game of the season and making the total score to eclipse 51.5 points.
Pick: Over 51.5
Jordan Moore 52.5 receiving yards
Two weeks ago, Diaz said that Moore continues to feel better in wake of his leg injury. After his spectacular catch at Miami last Saturday, Diaz and Murphy should both feel more confident in targeting Moore, who has shown that he can produce on relatively few receptions. Essentially, even with infrequent looks to his side of the field, Moore can rack up yardage and should have no problem attacking N.C. State’s relatively weak secondary.
Moore accumulated 75 yards last week against a slightly stronger Miami pass defense, so against the Wolfpack, Murphy’s favorite target will look to get back to his pre-injury self that put up over 100 yards in each of his first two games this season. An increasingly healthy Moore should have no trouble hitting the over on his line, especially behind what should be a pass-heavy game plan for the Duke offense.
Pick: Over 52.5
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