Duke football will face Wake Forest on the road for its last regular-season contest of the year. The Blue Zone provides an overview, stats to watch, X-factors and keys to the game:
Overview
Record: 4-7
Head coach: Dave Clawson
Series history: Duke leads 59-40-2
Last meeting: 24-21 Duke, Nov. 2, 2023
In the years following its Sam Hartman era, Wake Forest has attempted to steer its program back on track. After finishing last in the ACC last year, the squad out of Winston-Salem, N.C., looked bowl-hopeful for much of this season. Its bowl game dreams, however, were thwarted last week when the Demon Deacons dropped a must-win game against No. 8 Miami. Wake Forest was a stingy squad in the first half that responded well to every Hurricanes’ score, including a kick return that junior running back Demond Claiborne took to the house. The Demon Deacons only trailed by six going into the half. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, recently earned the “King of the Triangle” title after a win in Raleigh. Duke will now travel west to solidify itself as the “King of North Carolina football” on Wake Forest’s senior night.
At the helm of the Demon Deacon offense is redshirt senior Hank Bachmeier, a transfer from Boise State. The Murrieta, Calif., native has shown some regression this season, making only eight completions on 14 attempts for 86 yards against Miami last week. Bachmeier’s start against Hurricanes came right after he was benched after halftime in Wake Forest’s Nov. 16 loss to North Carolina.
Claiborne is also a trusty weapon for Clawson’s offense. The Aylett, Va., native is having a breakout season. He stands on the cusp of joining the 1000-yard club — nearly doubling his previous season’s total — and currently sits fifth in the ACC for total rushing. Claiborne took a kickoff 100 yards to the house against Miami last week, and last year did the same thing for 96 yards against Virginia Tech. His explosive runs have ignited a sometimes stagnant Wake Forest defense and been crucial in converting on third-and-short. He will surely get many touches Saturday.
The defense has been brighter for the Demon Deacons, and Clawson trusts the unit to keep his team within close range of strong opponents. In a press conference following the Miami loss, Clawson said that keeping games to one score going into the final frame of a game is crucial because “at that point, anything can happen.” Anchoring the Wake Forest defense is junior Nick Anderson. The defensive back out of Clifton, Va., is the ACC’s leading tackler. Having notched two interceptions this season, he will have his hands full with Duke’s high-flying offense.
Wake Forest’s defense usually manages to bend in the first half, but breaks in the second. Though it does not have the prettiest numbers — in the bottom half of the ACC in total defense — it is a gritty unit who can force turnovers and tackle well. A strong performance by the defensive squad could open the door for Wake Forest success. –Jerry Barajas
Key stat
Duke’s secondary unit has been nothing short of outstanding. The Blue Devils are currently first in the ACC in passing yards allowed per game at 193.6. The same could not be said for Wake Forest’s defensive backfield, which is currently allowing 281.7 yards per game to opponents. In Duke’s most recent win against Virginia Tech, Eli Pancol had a season-best 188 yards and three touchdowns. The air attack made the difference for Duke. The Demon Deacons and the Blue Devils are neck-and-neck with passing offense, but Wake Forest has faltered a bit with recent struggles in production from Hank Bachmeier. –Barajas
X-Factor
Duke: Sahmir Hagans
All eyes were on graduate wideout Eli Pancol last time out for the Blue Devils. He hauled in a 86-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage against the Hokies en route to a three-touchdown senior-night performance. And if it’s not Pancol, defenses are likely keyed in on senior wide receiver Jordan Moore. The former quarterback makes the miraculous look routine on a weekly basis, and offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer sends either Moore or Pancol streaking down the field nearly every series. Still, redshirt junior Sahmir Hagans may be a player to focus on against Wake Forest. Hagans has just three touchdowns on the year, but he presents a different skill set compared to Pancol and Moore. More importantly, Hagans may be in line to be Duke’s top receiver next year after his older teammates graduate.
In Hagans’ best game of the season — a 53-31 loss to Miami — he hauled in nine catches for 139 yards. Unlike Pancol and Moore, who excel in one-on-one balls in the air, Hagans is most dangerous in space. The Philadelphia native is quick and shifty, making defenders miss on tackles and creating explosive plays downfield. With Wake Forest’s porous defense and shoddy tackling, watch for Brewer to dial up some crossers and screen passes and Hagans to have a big afternoon. It may be a sign of what’s to come in 2025.
Wake Forest: Demond Claiborne
It’s impossible to talk about the Demon Deacons’ offense without talking about Demond Claiborne. The lightning-quick junior running back has 14 total touchdowns on the season — including a kickoff return touchdown last week against the Hurricanes. Another player who is dangerous in the open field, Claiborne has the potential to make it a long day for the Duke defense. In Wake Forest’s slow-mesh offense, where it’s hard to tell if the play is a pass or run, Claiborne excels at reading the gaps in the offensive line as they develop and darting into space. The Blue Devils’ defensive front will need to stay disciplined to stop him, and the secondary will have the difficult job of making sure he doesn’t break away for a chunk play.
One way Duke will likely try to disrupt Claiborne's rhythm is by knocking the ball from his hands. The Blue Devils are the No. 1 team in the country in fumbles recovered at 13, and they will look to add to that total Saturday. However, Claiborne is sure-handed; he has not lost a fumble all season on over 200 carries. If Duke is successful in bucking that trend Saturday, it will be well-positioned for its ninth win of the season, but if Claiborne has a big day, the Demon Deacons may pull off the upset. –Dom Fenoglio
3 keys
Establish the run: In its win against Virginia Tech last weekend, Duke lit up the field with deep shots for big yards. While these plays look nice on the highlight reel, it would be beneficial for the Blue Devils to focus more on establishing the run early in the game. Their reliance on passing the ball allowed the Hokies to claw their way back into the game multiple times, most notably when they scored 11 points unanswered in the second half.
A steady run game would aid the Duke offense by allowing it to both burn more time off the clock and by opening up the option to diversify the playcalling. Against Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils only rushed for 64 yards, with running back Star Thomas accounting for 63 of those. For head coach Manny Diaz and company, establishing the run early on will go a long way towards ending the regular season on a high note.
Remain composed on defense: The Duke defense was, as usual, very solid against the Hokies. It continued its elite run by coming away with a fumble recovery and an interception. This weekend’s opponent, however, presents a unique challenge for defenders. Wake Forest utilizes the slow-mesh offense, a style which delays the run-pass option for an abnormally long period before the quarterback ultimately decides to hand it off to the running back or pass the football.
In order to get the better of the Demon Deacons, defensive composure is absolutely critical. By avoiding making rash decisions and focusing on shutting down the slow mesh, it will eliminate Wake Forest’s biggest offensive threat and prevent the Demon Deacons from getting the win in what will be their last game of the 2024 season.
Avoid costly interceptions: While quarterback Maalik Murphy had some fantastic moments slinging the rock against Virginia Tech, he was far from flawless. He threw three interceptions to match his season high, and two of those giveaways resulted in points for the Hokies.
Offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer has not been shy about passing the ball this season, consistently drawing up deep shots that rely heavily on Murphy’s big arm. That said, a great quarterback does not simply need a big arm to be successful. To give the Blue Devils their best chance on the road, Murphy will need to display excellence both physically and mentally. Good decision-making and an ability to avoid costly interceptions will prevent Wake Forest from earning easy scoring opportunities, and ultimately put the ball in Duke’s court to win the game. –Ben Curtis
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Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.