Duke football will take on Virginia Tech in its last home contest of the year. The Blue Zone provides an overview, stats to watch, X-factors and keys to the game:

Overview

Record: 5-5

Head coach: Brent Pry

Series history: Virginia Tech leads 19-11

Last meeting: 24-7 Duke, Nov. 12, 2022

The Hokies were a buzzy preseason squad in the ACC, having been voted the sixth-best squad in the conference and receiving five first-place votes. Early on in the season, hopes of punching above that level were quickly dashed by losses against Vanderbilt and Rutgers – both of whom Virginia Tech was favored against. However, the Blacksburg, Va., side is still a quality team in the middle third of the conference, and it should match up closely with Duke.

Pry’s offense is anchored by running back Bhayshul Tuten, a senior averaging a monstrous 6.5 yards per carry and totaling 12 touchdowns. Tuten is no stranger to the Tar Heel State, having played the first two seasons of his collegiate career at North Carolina A&T. Junior Kyron Drones will be handing the ball off to Tuten, as the Houston-born signal caller has been manning the quarterback position for a year and a half at this point. Drones’ numbers have been passable, completing 60.7% of his passing attempts this season but only throwing for 10 touchdowns to his six interceptions. 

This season, the Blue Devils’ offense has been stagnant at times. Duke has only scored two or more touchdowns in a quarter twice this season, and not since its miraculous comeback win against rival North Carolina. The only other occasion was against a porous Middle Tennessee defense, a unit significantly weaker than Virginia Tech’s. This speaks to Duke’s inability to score in large bursts, an issue that has plagued the team all season. The above graphic represents a big part of this weakness: the Blue Devils’ inefficiency on third and fourth downs. Converting third downs at a rate below 30% is bad for a power-five program. If head coach Manny Diaz’s side hopes to beat a Virginia Tech team whose offense hasn’t been tremendous, but has done enough in late downs to get the job done, it will need to step up its own game. -Powicki

X-Factor

Duke: Todd Pelino

In Duke’s most recent game against N.C. State, junior Todd Pelino converted on two crucial field goals from 50 and 49 yards out. His impressive showing against the Wolfpack, highlighted by his 49-yard kick that changed the entire trajectory of the game in the fourth quarter, demonstrated his integral role for the Blue Devils.

The Cornelius, N.C., native has already scored 66 kicking points this season, converting on 13 field goals and maintaining a 72.2% field goal percentage. However, Pelino’s year has not been without its difficult moments; against SMU, the junior missed his first extra-point conversion of his career and went 0-2 for field goal attempts, including the last play of regulation where his potentially game-winning kick was blocked. 

Providing Duke with pivotal conversions throughout the season in heavily contested games, Pelino remains an important piece for the Blue Devils, making 27 out of 28 extra-point attempts, each crucial for Duke’s success. His precision and confidence in high-pressure moments will be key for the Blue Devils to defeat Virginia Tech and improve to 8-3. 

Virginia Tech: Bhayshul Tuten 

Senior Bhayshul Tuten’s great rushing ability, as seen in his incredible 266-yard performance against Boston College three games ago, will be crucial for the Hokies Saturday. Although Tuten was injured in the Hokies recent loss to Clemson, he is expected to play against Duke, posing numerous challenges for coach Manny Diaz’s defense.

This season alone, the Paulsboro, N.J., native has amassed 12 rushing touchdowns and 951 yards on 146 carries, for an average 6.5 yards-per-attempt. Beyond his ability to capitalize on defensive weaknesses, his capacity to also find the endzone has been huge for Virginia Tech, especially in his four-touchdown performance against the Eagles and three-touchdown game against Rutgers. 

Even if he is limited by injuries, Tuten could still make an impact for the Hokies, evidenced by his ability to play through his injury against Georgia Tech, where he tallied 85 total yards on the night. If Tuten plays anything like he did against Boston College and consistently punishes the Blue Devils’ rushing defense, Virginia Tech could leave Wallace Wade with a win. -Tyler Rogers

3 Keys

Maintain the pocket: The contest Saturday night will feature defensive lineman Antwuan Powell-Ryland for Virginia Tech. The senior out of Portsmouth, Va., is second in FBS sacks with 12, two shy of Marshall’s Mike Green. The Hokies rank third in the ACC in sacks, and with a struggling offense and a desire to secure bowl eligibility it is expected they will be coming into the matchup with their hair on fire. In its most recent matchup against then-No. 19 Clemson, the defensive line for Virginia Tech was able to get to quarterback Cade Klubnik numerous times, recording four sacks in the process.

Duke thrives when quarterback Maalik Murphy’s pocket is clean, as scrambling is not one of his strengths. The Blue Devils rank 15th in the country in sacks allowed with 11, and for Duke to continue its explosive deep plays, it will need to give Murphy the opportunity to throw. The Blue Devils’ offensive line will have its hands full with “Sacksburg” — the unofficial name for the Virginia Tech defense notorious for its bruising performances. The Hokies’ defensive backs have been ever-present this year and gave Clemson trouble, so for the Duke offense to thrive Murphy will need time. Powell-Ryland, known to the Virginia Tech faithful as the “Mayor of Sacksburg,” will need to be limited by the Blue Devil protection unit. 

Exploit the rush defense: It is no secret that Duke has struggled to find its footing on the ground this season. The squad from Durham is currently averaging 99.6 ground yards per game, good enough for 15th in the ACC. The Blue Devils ran for 31 yards as a team in their most recent contest against a stingy N.C. State defense. On the Virginia Tech side of things, the Hokies are allowing 158.5 yards per game on the ground. They gave up 167 yards in their bout against the Tigers. Clemson running back Phil Mafah ran all over the Hokie defense, averaging almost five yards per carry. Opponents combined have scored 13 rushing touchdowns against Virginia Tech this season. 

The battle on the ground will also see a familiar face in graduate transfer and former Blue Devil Aeneas Peebles. The defensive lineman and Raleigh native has five tackles for a loss on the season along with three sacks.   

Virginia Tech’s secondary has been stout this season, allowing 206.1 yards per game and suppressing Clemson’s air attack in the first half of the recent bout. Duke will have to give Star Thomas and the rest of the running backs’ room looks to get things going if the option to pass is limited. Virginia Tech’s rush defense is full of talent, and has managed to keep the Hokies in games. There is a tendency for Virginia Tech to have a strong first-half performance, then falter in the second which will allow Duke to build momentum as the game goes on. 

Convert on third down: Duke has had problems all seasons long with converting on third down. In the victory against the Wolfpack, the Blue Devils went 0-for-9 on their tries. Though It is worth noting that Carter-Finley Stadium is no easy place to play in, it does not distract from the fact that Duke’s conversion rate is dreadful. As our own Tyler Walley mentioned, the Blue Devils are ranked fifth-to-last in FBS football with a dreadful 28.9% conversion rate on third down. 

Duke will be looking to make strides in the arena of converting on third down, and Virginia Tech’s defense has previously allowed its opponents to do so. In their recent matchup against Clemson, the Hokies allowed the Tigers to convert just under half of their third downs. In ACC play, Virginia Tech is allowing opponents to convert at an average of 41.2% when facing third down. Failure to stop the opponent on third down hurt Virginia Tech badly, as the Tigers were able to have sustained drives and wound up possessing the ball for almost 37 minutes. With stern defenses for both the Blue Devils and Hokies, converting on third down and producing sustained drives will be important for both teams. -Jerry Barajas