After back-to-back losses to SMU and Miami, Duke football continues its road stretch against nearby rival NC State. The Blue Zone is here with an overview, stats to watch, X-factors and keys to the game:

Overview

Overall Record: 5-4 

Head Coach: Dave Doeren

Series History: Duke leads 42-37-5

Last Meeting: 24-3 Duke, Oct. 14, 2023 

Just a few miles down Interstate 40 on the other end of the Research Triangle, N.C. State will be looking to extend its current win streak to three in a row. The Wolfpack are coming off a dominant 59-28 win against new ACC member Stanford, and will look to celebrate their senior night with a victory. N.C. State has fallen short of preseason expectations but has hopes of ending the season on a five-game in-conference win-streak for the second straight year. The Wolfpack are one win shy of earning bowl eligibility which would mark Dave Doeren’s fifth straight bowl game appearance. NC State’s defense has faltered in the absence of linebacker Payton Wilson — who now plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers. In 2024 the unit ranks third-to-last in the ACC in points allowed and fifth-to-last in yards allowed, so it will hope to improve on its defensive performances Saturday.  

On the other side of the ball stars C.J. Bailey, who has started to solidify himself as one of the best true freshman quarterbacks in the country. Bailey has taken the helm of the Wolfpack offense in the absence of graduate transfer Grayson McCall, who retired after suffering a career-ending head injury against Wake Forest a month ago. Against Stanford, Bailey completed 18 of 20 passes for 234 yards and three touchdowns, and proved resilient in pressure situations. Prior to its game against the Cardinal, Bailey rallied N.C. State to a 13-point fourth quarter comeback win against California, throwing for 306 yards and two touchdowns. The Miami native has gained confidence and accuracy and has gone two straight games without an interception. 

The Wolfack’s receivers include 2023 ACC Offensive Rookie of the year Kevin Concepcion and junior tight end Justin Joly, who leads the Wolfpack in receiving yards and scored a touchdown last week against Stanford. Duke’s rush defense will face off against former Blue Devil running back Jordan Waters, who had 115 yards and two touchdowns last weekend, both season highs. -Jerry Barajas

Key Stat

Both Duke and NC State have been trying to find their rushing identities, ranking 13th and 15th respectively in rushing yards per game. Neither team has had much better fortunes running the ball on offense, although the Wolfpack did rush for 281 yards against Stanford last weekend. It is also worth noting that the Blue Devils are only behind James Madison in turnovers forced with 21 on the year, while NC State has a tally of 14. A stout defensive performance from either team may mean the difference between victory and defeat. -Jerry Barajas

X-Factor

Duke: Chandler Rivers

The junior Blue Devil has made it clear to opposing offenses that Duke’s secondary should be a primary concern. This season, Rivers has emerged as a key contributor to the chaos-causing defense of head coach Manny Diaz. His skill at breaking up passes and securing interceptions positions him as a crucial player to keep an eye on as the season unfolds.

Last week, the cornerback showcased his abilities, breaking up three passes and recording his third interception of the season against No. 5 Miami. Two weeks prior, the Beaumont, Texas, native took a pick 36 yards to the endzone, earning him the title of ACC Defensive Back of the Week. Leading the team in passes defended and interceptions, Rivers is a cornerstone of Duke’s powerful secondary.  

As the Blue Devils gear up to face N.C. State, they will encounter a true freshman quarterback who has shown impressive composure and accuracy. Rivers' ability to read CJ Bailey and anticipate routes will be critical in slowing down the Wolfpack's offense. If he can continue to break up passes and snag interceptions, Rivers' performance could tilt the momentum in Duke's favor and allow it to return to Durham victorious. 

N.C. State: CJ Bailey

Bailey has quickly established himself as a formidable challenge for any defense facing the Wolfpack, making him arguably this season’s best true freshman quarterback in college football. He took over as QB1 following the retirement of former starter Grayson McCall, who stepped away from football after two concussions within the season.

In the team's recent matchup against Stanford, the Miami native achieved a remarkable 90% completion rate, connecting 18-of-20 passes for 234 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. His season stats — 69.5% completion rate and 11 touchdown passes — make him the only quarterback with over 100 attempts to earn a grade above 65. Bailey's capacity to read defenses has quickly set him apart, allowing him to lead his team confidently in his inaugural season.

N.C. State will face a Duke defense that has demonstrated a skill for disrupting plays. With Duke’s secondary showing a knack for turnovers, Bailey’s ability to protect the ball, connect passes and avoid risky throws will be crucial. The freshman will need to focus on maintaining his accuracy under pressure to defend the Wolfpack’s home turf against the Blue Devils. — Lucy Glynn

3 Keys

Break through the pocket: After weeks of turmoil, N.C. State has chosen its play caller in true freshman CJ Bailey. Graduate transfer Grayson McCall medically retired from football after sustaining a second concussion against Wake Forest in October and Bailey was declared the starter. He has limited experience but boundless potential. The Hollywood, Fla. native has impressed with strategic scrambles and precision on deep throws, making his offense a threat to strain Duke’s secondary. Though the Blue Devils have impressed throughout the season with their pass defense, Quarterback Cam Ward and the Hurricanes averaged 9.8 yards per completion last Saturday and threw for three touchdowns over 30 yards. Up against a formidable Wolfpack offensive line, Duke will look to overwhelm Bailey’s protection and wreak havoc on a talented but inexperienced quarterback.

The defensive line has the opportunity to disrupt Bailey’s offensive rhythm. They’ll hope to give Bailey the Brock Glenn treatment — against the freshman signal-caller and the Florida State offense, the Blue Devils forced turnovers on three consecutive possessions. Like Glenn, Bailey has limited experience against college defenses and will face his toughest challenge in a Duke defense that, until facing Ward and Miami Saturday, had not allowed more than 28 points all season. The Blue Devils have the opportunity to take advantage of a young quarterback, but they’ll have to barrel through a tough and experienced offensive line first. -Sarah Muir

Protect possessions: Avoiding three-and-outs has been an elusive goal for Duke all season, but Saturday night’s outing with Miami revealed another struggle for the Blue Devils: turnovers. Murphy threw three interceptions and fumbled the ball to set up the Hurricanes for easy scores. There isn’t much more that this offensive unit can ask of the defense. The best that Murphy and company can do is protect the football throughout the afternoon on Saturday and keep possessions alive.

Duke was at least able to pick up some momentum on Saturday afternoon before the half to put up 28 points in the first half, more than it had scored in any game this season except for the trip to Middle Tennessee in September. The same rhythm will be critical for two halves against a productive N.C. State offense, not only to put points on the board but to keep the ball out of Bailey’s hands. -Sarah Muir

Stay composed: Duke will be coming off consecutive losses for the first time this season. The squad seemed unbothered by the bright lights in Florida through the first half last Saturday, but lost steam and fell far behind the Hurricanes in the second half. The road trip to Miami followed by Raleigh will put the Blue Devils’ toughness to the test, especially coming off games against the top-ranked teams in the ACC. Head coach Manny Diaz and his squad will look to play battle-hardened and undeterred in spite of consecutive heartbreakers.

In its previous meeting with the Wolfpack, Duke was reeling from a devastating loss in the final seconds to then-No. 14 Notre Dame. Backup quarterback Henry Belin IV led the Blue Devils to a 24-3 victory where his team never trailed. While N.C. State will certainly look to avenge a near-shutout, Duke will hope to channel the same resilience. -Sarah Muir