As Election Day approaches, all eyes are on North Carolina. However, the state is no stranger to the political spotlight.
While a Republican presidential candidate has carried the state in every election since 1976 — barring 2008 — the margins of victory have been razor thin, threading under 3.7% in the past four election cycles.
To see how politics have evolved in North Carolina over the years, The Chronicle conducted an independent analysis of the state’s voting history using publicly available election data. Our figures were sourced primarily from the North Carolina State Board of Elections, which reports data going back to 2004.
The Chronicle found that voter turnout, shifting demographics and political change from the Trump era will likely be crucial factors influencing the state’s decision this November.
How did North Carolina become a battleground state?
From 1856 to 1964, North Carolina voted Democratic in all but three presidential elections, like much of the South. At the time, the Democratic Party stood for a limited federal government and opposed Republican-led Reconstruction efforts after the Civil War.
However, following the Great Depression in the early 1930s, Democratic president Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal legislation shifted the party’s platform towards creating a stronger federal government. Despite this change, North Carolina continued to vote Democrat due to its historical ties and its opposition to Reconstruction.
The southern political arena fundamentally changed in the 1960s during the civil rights era.
In contrast to the larger Democratic Party, Southern states expressed opposition to the Civil Rights Movement, particularly after Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Profiting from the rift, the Republican Party launched its “Southern strategy,” solidifying their base of support in the region for decades to come.
By the 1976 election, much of the South had turned red. North Carolina stood out as a ballot-splitting exception, regularly voting Democrat in gubernatorial elections but leaning Republican in presidential ones.
Could North Carolina flip blue this year?
Young voters and Black voters could hold the key.
Democrats carried North Carolina twice in the past 12 election cycles — Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008 — also securing the presidency in both instances.
Carter’s success was likely influenced by broad dissatisfaction with the Republican Party amid the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal. Obama’s win, however, showcased an important trend of high turnout among Black voters and young voters — demographics which have supported Democrats at higher rates in recent years. This same trend was seen when President Joe Biden unexpectedly carried Georgia in the 2020 election.
In 2020, 68% of Black registered voters in North Carolina went to the polls. 92% reported voting for Biden in exit poll data. This election cycle, however, Black voters’ support for the Democratic Party has notably slipped. Cross-Tabs conducted in September by the New York Times and Siena College show that only 84% of N.C. Black likely-voters would vote for Harris.
North Carolina has a higher number of Black voters than the national average, with Black residents making up 21% of the state’s citizen voting age population this election cycle, nine percentage points above the national average. Harris recently announced a plan to provide economic opportunity for Black men, hoping to boost enthusiasm for her campaign among this crucial voting bloc.
Young voter turnout in North Carolina is also above the national average and has been rising over the past several election cycles, though it remains the lowest of any age group. Just 60% of registered voters ages 18 to 25 cast a ballot in the 2020 election, compared to 84.1% of those over the age of 65.
North Carolina’s growing population and demographic shifts could tip the scale.
North Carolina’s voting map shows concentrated pockets of blue amid a sea of red — notably in cities including Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham and Winston-Salem.
Per The Chronicle’s analysis, in the past five election cycles, 16 out of North Carolina’s 100 counties have always voted Democratic, while 65 always went Republican. Five out of the six most densely populated counties have voted Democratic since 2008.
Though, the state’s shifting demographics may influence the extent to which cities vote blue.
Based on 2022 census data, the state’s population has grown 11.7% since 2010, with newcomers disproportionately settling in cities and sprawling into the suburbs. The two most populated counties in the state — Wake and Mecklenburg, which are home to the cities of Raleigh and Charlotte — have seen the largest growth at 29.6% and 24.1%, respectively.
Most newcomers are from Florida, Virginia, South Carolina, New York and California. If these residents vote along traditional urban/rural lines, North Carolina’s urban counties could be tallying even more Democratic ballots this year.
Meanwhile, suburban voters have shifted their political support to Democrats this cycle. The September Cross-Tabs data show that 49% of North Carolina’s suburban voters would vote for Harris, which is a 10 percentage point increase from the number of voters who reported voting for Biden in 2020 exit poll data.
Some historically blue counties flipped during the Trump era, but Republican support was lost in one crucial city.
Trump narrowly won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020, with margins of victory of 3.70% and 1.35%, respectively.
In his first run for office, three counties that had never voted Republican in elections dating back to 2004 — Gates, Richmond and Robeson — turned red. These counties all voted for Trump again in 2020 alongside Scotland County, which also voted blue in elections prior.
The three counties neighbor each other along the eastern side of North Carolina’s border with South Carolina. They are rural counties with shrinking populations that are shifting towards an older demographic. Robeson County — the largest of the three with around 120,000 people — hosts the headquarters of the state-recognized Lumbee tribe, making it a minority-majority county with 38% of its population being Native American. Scotland and Richmond are predominantly white and each have populations of 30,000 to 40,000 people.
Despite significant increases in voter turnout in all three counties, their votes only accounted for 1.51% of all N.C. votes in the 2020 election. Still, in a state projected to be a toss-up, this region’s shift towards Trump may be a factor to track on Nov. 5.
Only one county that had historically voted Republican changed its affiliation in the Trump-era: New Hanover, the third most densely populated county in the state.
Home to Wilmington, New Hanover County went blue for the first time since at least 2004. Prior to that election, it was the only major city in the state considered a Republican stronghold. This cycle, it has emerged as a political hotspot, with Second Gentlemen Doug Emhoff, Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance and Trump hosting rallies in the city with the hopes of securing its citizens’ votes.
New Hanover has seen steadily increasing voter turnout — which reached nearly 70% — and accounted for 2.4% of all North Carolinian votes in the 2020 election.
Other trends
Three N.C. counties have always voted for the candidate that ended up carrying the state.
Caswell, Hyde and Jackson counties have voted the same as the overall state in every election since at least 2004.
No county has been perfectly aligned with the national outcome in all five most recent election cycles, although 10 out of North Carolina’s 100 counties have come close, voting for the overall winner four out of five times.
Party affiliation does not always define North Carolinians’ voting habits.
While Republicans have won North Carolina's electoral votes in most presidential elections since 1976, Democrats hold the winning record in N.C. gubernatorial races, with a Democratic governor elected in nine of the last 12 elections.
Voting data provides little explanation for this split outcome. Gubernatorial races in North Carolina occur in the same year as presidential races, and the races receive a nearly identical number of votes. In other words, people are voting for both races on the same day but are splitting their ballot between parties.
These trends could indicate that voters are showing up informed on Election Day, opting to choose candidates on an individual basis rather than based on a party label.
Hurricane Helene could impact voter turnout in Western North Carolina and may be an important trend to track on Election Day. Previous analysis and reporting by The Chronicle on affected voters can be found here.
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Ana Despa is a Pratt sophomore and an associate news editor for the news department.