How could Hurricane Helene affect the election in North Carolina?

When Hurricane Helene began to form in the Gulf of Mexico late last month, few were prepared for the extreme devastation that would ensue — including how infrastructure damage would impact voting ahead of 2024 Election Day.

As recovery efforts continue and the rebuilding process begins, The Chronicle broke down how damage to voting infrastructure may affect the voting process and election results in the swing state and how the campaigns are responding to the natural disaster ahead of Nov. 5.

What is at stake?

Any change in voter turnout in the affected regions may have an impact on the presidential race, which is currently polling near even in the swing state. As of Wednesday, the 538 polling average shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by one point in North Carolina, holding one of the closest margins of any state.

Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is trailing Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein by 13 points in the state’s gubernatorial race as of Wednesday.

In North Carolina, the state’s westernmost counties took the brunt of the impact.

As of Monday, over 230 deaths were recorded across the region, making Helene the deadliest storm to hit the mainland United States since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Several roads connecting mountainous communities to the rest of the state — including significant portions of Interstate 40 — were washed out or made impassable due to mudslides. Many communities also took significant damage to their water systems and electric grids, with officials estimating repairs would likely take at least a few weeks.

Concerns have arisen over possible lower voter turnout in the region caused by damage to polling sites and other election infrastructure. On Monday, the NCSBE exercised its emergency powers to unanimously approve a slew of measures designed to ensure “accessible, safe and secure” voting options remain available to North Carolinians most affected by the hurricane.

The new provisions apply to 13 counties “where infrastructure, accessibility to voting sites and postal services remain severely disrupted after Helene”: Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Transylvania, Watauga and Yancey.

In a Monday afternoon press conference, NCSBE representatives explained that they had been in contact with all 100 county boards of elections since the storm swept across the state and only the 13 included in the emergency provisions expressed a need for additional election readiness assistance.

Per The Chronicle’s analysis, around 60% of voters in the 25 counties on the disaster declaration voted Republican in every presidential election since 2004, suggesting that lower voter turnout may negatively impact the Trump campaign. However, the political leaning of the 13 counties receiving election assistance by the NCSBE is significantly different than those 12 counties not receiving the support.

Support for the Democratic presidential candidate is higher in the counties receiving election assistance, with approximately 44% of voters backing the Democratic candidate in the past five election cycles. In comparison, only about 33% of voters in the 12 counties not receiving support did the same.

The largest contributors to this partisan gap are Buncombe and Watauga counties: two of the three counties — among the 25 in the disaster declaration — that have voted blue in at least one presidential election in the past five cycles. Combined, Buncombe and Watauga counties accounted for approximately 20% of ballots cast within the 25 counties, voting 61% and 54% Democrat, respectively, in the 2020 presidential election.

Buncombe contains the city of Asheville, which historically votes blue, and is one of the most densely populated counties impacted by the hurricane. 

Watauga contains Boone, another city that has swung blue multiple times in the last few election cycles. A Democratic presidential candidate has carried Buncombe in every election since 2008 and carried Watauga in 2008, 2016 and 2020.

Voting infrastructure and election turnout

The emergency resolution approved by the NCSBE includes a number of changes to in-person and absentee voting processes.

NCSBE Executive Director Karen Brinson Bell said during the Monday board meeting that the state is “committed” to commencing early voting as planned on Oct. 17 in all 100 counties within North Carolina.

“It may look a little different in these affected counties, but we fully intend to offer early voting starting on [Oct. 17],” she said. “We also plan to provide as much voting opportunity as we can for Election Day voting sites as well, recognizing that we may need to take voting to the people because they may not be able to access their voting sites equally.”

Local boards of elections within the 13 affected counties are allowed to “modify” their early voting plans by a bipartisan majority vote that does not require approval from the state board. Such modifications can include changing the hours and days of operation for polling locations to improve accessibility and adding or removing polling sites.

The state board did not extend the deadline for North Carolinians to register, which is 5 p.m. Oct. 11. However, same-day registration is available at polling locations during the early voting period from Oct. 17 to Nov. 2.

“We have a wide opportunity for folks to still get registered even if they’ve been displaced,” Brinson Bell said.

North Carolina has a 30-day residency requirement for voter registration, and the deadline to establish a new residence in advance of Election Day passed Oct. 6. Brinson Bell noted that voters who are only temporarily displaced due to the storm can register in their home county and vote by mail, and those who intend to remain permanently relocated can register in their new county of residence.

County boards can also modify their Election Day polling sites by bipartisan majority vote, though any modifications must be presented to the state board in a written resolution explaining that they are “​​required by the effects of the recent disaster.”

Such modifications could include the transfer of voters from one precinct to another within the same county, the establishment of multiple polling sites within the same precinct, the establishment of “out-of-precinct” polling locations that could possibly be located outside the county and the approval of central polling locations to be used by any voter within the county.

The resolution mandates that notice of any modification to Election Day polling locations will be given to the affected voters by mail, posted on the county’s website and delivered to all local media outlets and the chairs of county political parties. Board members shared during a Monday afternoon press conference that notices would also likely be posted in disaster relief shelters.

To address staffing shortages in light of the disaster, the emergency resolution allows county boards to appoint election officials who are registered in other counties to oversee voting in the 13 included in the resolution. Local boards are also empowered to appoint emergency assistants for Election Day and reassign poll workers “to ensure there is sufficient knowledge and experience at each voting site.”

Brinson Bell shared that the state is coordinating with federal relief agencies to establish temporary polling sites, such as National Guard tents or trailers provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, in areas where the previously designated locations suffered significant damage.

The NCSBE also made a number of changes to how voters in the affected counties can receive and return absentee ballots.

The state began distributing absentee ballots Sept. 20, and many still in transit were lost amid the hurricane. Brinson Bell advocated for voters “concerned about the status of their ballot” to check BallotTrax, a state-provided service that tracks ballots through the mail stream.

Voters in the affected counties can now request or receive their ballots in person at their county board of election office up until Nov. 5. In the event that they are unable to access their local board’s office, they can deliver their completed ballot to another county’s board or the state board.

All absentee ballots still must be received by a county board of election by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day, Nov. 5.

Brinson Bell reported that the postal service is now operating in all 100 counties within the state, though she acknowledged that some communities within individual counties are still facing accessibility issues around the delivery and receipt of mail.

Campaign strategies

Despite the state’s efforts to ensure that voter turnout is not reduced as a result of infrastructure damage caused by Helene, campaigns are adjusting their approach to engaging North Carolinian voters.

“Our hearts are with the North Carolinians impacted by Hurricane Helene and we are working closely with our legal and voter protection teams and the N.C. Democratic Party to ensure that every eligible voter is able to safely make their voices heard in this election,” wrote Dory MacMillan, communications director for Harris for N.C., in a Wednesday email to The Chronicle.

The N.C. for Harris campaign is operating a voter protection hotline — which representatives touted as one of the most robust in the nation — with hundreds of operators on standby to answer voters’ questions. North Carolinians can call 1-833-VOTE4NC to get information on voting in person or by mail. The hotline is now available by text for the first time, and campaign representatives shared that assistance will soon be available in Spanish.

The campaign is tracking changes to polling locations in western North Carolina amid recovery efforts and engaging directly with voters to communicate those updates.

Representatives from Harris for N.C. shared that the campaign has also spent over $30,000 on relief aid to communities in the affected region. Campaign staff and volunteers have been delivering supplies to community centers in Asheville and Boone, and the campaign also hosted a free dinner last week for 120 families in Boone.

“We’re with western North Carolina for the long haul, and in addition to our efforts to keep voters educated, we will continue to provide hands-on support, delivering water, supplies and funding to the relief efforts,” MacMillan wrote.

The N.C. Republican Party did not respond to The Chronicle’s inquiry about changes to campaign strategy in the aftermath of Helene in time for publication.

Both major presidential candidates visited North Carolina last week in the aftermath of Helene.

Harris stopped in Charlotte Saturday, attending a FEMA briefing to hear from state officials about ongoing relief and recovery efforts and visiting a resource distribution center to speak to volunteers and affected residents.

The previous day, Trump gave an address in Fayetteville, where he condemned the Biden administration’s response to the hurricane.

“They are doing the worst job on a hurricane that any administration has ever done,” Trump said.

However, critics of Trump have pointed to his own complicated history on disaster response, including delaying hurricane relief to Puerto Rico in 2019 and limiting FEMA’s ability to provide aid to states during his time in office — using the funds instead to return undocumented immigrants to Mexico.

Trump has faced condemnation from members of his own party for spreading misinformation about the federal government’s response to the storm. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., reiterated this sentiment in a Sunday statement to constituents.

“The destruction caused by Helene is incomprehensible and has left many communities in western North Carolina absolutely devastated,” he wrote. “The last thing that the victims of Helene need right now is political posturing, finger-pointing or conspiracy theories that only hurt the response effort.”

Brinson Bell also denounced misinformation about election fraud in the aftermath of the disaster.

“It is a disservice to these people who have already faced disaster and have been put in harm’s way and are hurting — what a disgrace for anyone to try to provide misinformation or disinformation affecting their ability to vote,” she said.

Republican Board Member Stacey Eggers, who is based in Boone, emphasized that the changes enacted by the emergency resolution are not meant to serve partisan interests.

“I’m generally very hesitant to make changes to the normal running of our elections, but these have been tailored to give flexibility to the county boards to meet those specific needs,” he said, also pointing out that any changes made require a bipartisan majority vote. “… A change is not going to be a Republican change or a Democrat change.”

Editor's note: The article was updated Oct. 25 to clarify The Chronicle's intention to break down how damage to voting infrastructure may also affect the results of the election.

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