Last month, the Fuqua School of Business released the results for its 2024 third quarter CFO survey, which found that business executives are generally less concerned about inflation and feel optimistic about the economy.
The CFO survey has been providing insight into the financial outlook for firms and the expectations for any change within the economy since it was launched by Fuqua in 1996. Since 2020, the survey has been conducted in partnership with the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta to “leverage their collective expertise in survey design and data analysis.”
Released each fiscal quarter, the survey gathers data from chief financial officers or other individuals with financial decision-making roles within firms, such as vice presidents, accountants and treasurers. Those surveyed include panel members from Fortune 500 companies “across all major industries,” as well as smaller businesses. As of Sept. 6, the survey reported data for 2,600 panel members.
In this quarter’s release, which was published Sept. 25, CFOs seemed predominantly optimistic about the financial outlook for their own companies, with respondents reporting an optimism value of 69.4 compared to 67.8 in September 2023. Optimism about the U.S. economy was slightly lower at 60.6, but up from 56.4 in September 2023.
In addition, concerns about inflation have decreased, with only 8% of firms mentioning it as their most pressing concern compared to 12% of firms in June.
The survey reported that mean growth expectations from the previous quarter for revenue, price and unit costs have gone down. However, employment expectations have increased.
Monetary policy remained the top concern for respondents for the fifth consecutive quarter, with 12.4% of respondents labeling it their most pressing issue.
Concern over the political climate and the upcoming election emerged as a top-10 issue for firms this quarter, with 4.5% of respondents reporting it to be their primary concern. It did not make the list of the 10 most pressing concerns last quarter.
While the majority of respondents — 64.1% — reported not making any change to their investment plans due to “uncertainty related to the upcoming U.S. presidential and congressional elections,” around 30% of firms had postponed, reduced or canceled investments due to such uncertainty.
Firms impacted by election uncertainty were about 10 points less optimistic than peers who were not affected, both about their own company’s performance and the U.S. economy as a whole. These impacted firms reported having lower expectations for employment and revenue growth in 2024. They were also more likely to invest in cost reduction strategies and less likely to invest in expanding or maintaining capacity.
Overall expectations for real GDP growth over the next four years remain the same from the previous quarter, with weighted median and mean expectations of growth both measured at 1.9%.
The results for the final fiscal quarter of 2024 will be published Dec. 4 by the Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta.
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