For Duke football, last Friday was an important test for three reasons. Number one: Impressing the visiting parents and families. Number two: Finally beating Florida State after 22 straight losses. Number three — the final and most crucial reason: Bouncing back after its first loss of the season.
The good news? Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils aced it.
With a 23-16 win largely driven by an excellent defensive performance, Duke football earned bowl eligibility and its first votes in the AP poll. Seemingly at their peak, the Blue Devils must now face their most difficult challenge of the season: No. 22 SMU.
In each of their five wins thus far, the Mustangs have triumphed on the back of their high-powered offensive unit; they average 40.7 points per game, good enough for the 11th-best mark in the FBS. In a 42-16 blowout of the Seminoles, against whom Duke struggled at times to generate points, SMU put on a near-perfect show in which it recorded 458 yards of total offense — a figure that would easily be the Blue Devils’ highest of the season.
However, what makes the Mustangs’ scoring proficiency particularly interesting is how they create opportunities. In a sense, they go against the grain of a typical high-octane collegiate offense; while the air attack is certainly nothing to scoff at, SMU has relied heavily on its run game. Across its wins, head coach Rhett Lashlee’s squad averages a gaudy 199.6 rushing yards and 2.2 touchdowns on 41.4 attempts per game. In comparison, the Mustangs have averaged just 27.3 pass attempts in such games.
At the helm of the rushing attack operates senior running back Brashard Smith. With the Miami transfer carrying the ball, almost every run is a productive one — his 6.9 yards per attempt ranks fifth in the FBS among players with at least 75 carries. Smith is more than just a runner though; he began his collegiate career as a wide receiver, and his utility out of the backfield presents a unique threat for the SMU offensive unit. Watch the Richmond Heights, Fla., native showcase these talents against Florida State.
Against an incredibly shifty and dynamic runner in Smith, the Blue Devil defense will need to be flawless in second-level tackling. Once Smith gets out into the open field — even when he appears cornered — he racks up yards at a ridiculous rate.
Yet, Smith is not the only driving force of the Mustangs’ run game. After being named the starting quarterback Sept. 10, redshirt sophomore Kevin Jennings has led SMU to four straight wins. Like Smith, Jennings possesses great versatility in his style of play. Although his running ability is far from that of former collegiate dual-threat stars like Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels, Jennings adds another dimension to an already-formidable rushing attack.
While the Mustangs center their offense around the run game, unpredictability is still a key component of the game plan. From RPOs to play-action to read-options, offensive coordinator Casey Woods keeps opposing defenses guessing — and the Blue Devils should expect no different Saturday. Take a look at some highlights from Jennings’ spectacular dual-threat showing against Louisville.
Limiting both Smith and Jennings will be a difficult task for the Duke defense. Head coach Manny Diaz will need his defensive line and pass rushers to be at their most disruptive and truly cause havoc in the SMU backfield.
While the Blue Devils and their fans certainly took the time to celebrate last week’s win, the performance of the offensive line still went under the radar. Against a formidable defensive line, the Jeff Norrid-coached group did not allow a single sack. Now facing an SMU defense that has recorded only six sacks on the year, the enforcers of the Blue Devils offense should look to keep building on their strong play.
With this favorable matchup in mind, aggressive play-calling in the passing game will be critical for Maalik Murphy and the offense. Murphy struggled to find his rhythm against the Seminoles — completing just 12 passes on 24 attempts for 70 yards and zero touchdowns. Against SMU, he should have time to work in the pocket and let his receivers’ routes develop. Whether or not Murphy can get going early may be what decides the game.
Another reason for the necessity of Duke’s passing attack is the stoutness of SMU’s rushing defense. In their six contests, the Mustangs have conceded 87.0 rushing yards per game on 33 attempts. Most recently against Stanford, SMU completely stifled the Cardinal’s runners; on 35 carries, Stanford managed only 33 yards — less than a yard per carry. After back-to-back weeks of middling performances in the run game, the Blue Devils cannot afford the same mediocrity Saturday.
Seven games into the year and already bowl eligible, Duke football has exceeded expectations, but it must keep its foot on the gas. The Blue Devils are squarely in the midst of their most difficult stretch of season — no more cakewalk games and only a few in which they project to be the favorite. It has been a great year so far for Diaz and Duke, but these next few games will reveal just how far these Blue Devils can go.
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