Prop bets for Duke football vs. SMU

Ahead of Duke football’s game against SMU, the Blue Zone gives its thoughts on some can’t-miss prop bets: 

Duke vs. SMU (-11.5)

It is hard not to feel pretty great about Duke football right now. After their first win against Florida State in program history, the Blue Devils have momentum aplenty as they face their first ranked opponent of the season in SMU. However, the Mustangs have more than earned their No. 22 spot; across their last four games, they have trounced opponents with an average point differential of 21.8. 

Redshirt sophomore quarterback Kevin Jennings has injected life back into the SMU offense since being named the starter following the team’s 18-15 defeat against BYU. The Oak Cliff, Texas, native’s dual-threat ability has allowed the Mustangs’ offensive scheme to evolve, as he too grows in his decision-making and play-making. In SMU’s most recent contest against Stanford, Jennings recorded his most impressive passing performance of the year — throwing for 322 yards, three touchdowns and a lone interception. Head coach Manny Diaz’s defense has done a fantastic job against opposing signal-callers thus far — allowing only 153.6 passing yards and less than a touchdown per game — but it has yet to face a quarterback with such a penchant for big plays and improvisation. 

Ultimately, Duke football’s chances against the Mustangs boil down to how well it can limit Jennings and the explosive SMU offense. Three weeks ago, the Blue Devils' defense struggled to handle Georgia Tech’s short game while their own offense sputtered out; the same cannot happen again. While Duke certainly has a chance to upset the ranked Mustangs, SMU — even favored by double-digits — is the safer pick.

Pick: SMU -11.5

Over/Under 48.5 total points

As with any game between one-loss teams at this juncture in the season, both squads boast effective units on either side of the ball. However, there is a clear match-up to watch in the Blue Devil defense against the Mustang offense.

Despite a triumphant and historic win against the Seminoles last Saturday, quarterback Maalik Murphy had a game to forget. On 24 pass attempts, Murphy recorded 12 completions for 70 yards and no touchdowns in what was almost assuredly his worst showing of the season. Now four weeks removed from a three-contest-long streak of throwing three touchdowns, the Texas transfer is looking to get off the schneid against the Mustangs. 

While finding success in the air attack is no small task facing a SMU defense that averages 1.7 interceptions per game, the Blue Devils do not figure to have many other avenues for easy production. It is no exaggeration to call the Mustangs’ run defense one of the best in the country; the unit allows 87 rushing yards per game on a paltry 2.6 yards per attempt. Despite the clear inefficacy of the ground game against SMU, opposing teams still average 33 rushing attempts per game as compared to 33.7 passing attempts — figures nearly identical to Duke’s for the season. However, Murphy and the Blue Devil offense can and should be looking to re-establish their early-season form after consecutive mediocre performances. 

Yes, the match-up is tough, but today’s game is in many ways a great opportunity for Murphy to showcase what made him such a highly-rated prospect and prized transfer. Moreover, an aggressive Duke passing game will put him in line for one of his bigger performances on the season. 

Pick: Over 214.5 passing yards