As Duke football hits the road looking to stay undefeated against ACC opponent Georgia Tech, the Blue Zone breaks down some can’t-miss prop bets:
Duke (+8.5) vs Georgia Tech
Eight and a half points is a steep line for two teams lacking a common opponent thus far. If there’s any takeaway from last weekend against North Carolina, it’s that this Duke team will not go down without a fight. In a tense conference battle, expect this game to come down to the wire in the fourth quarter.
While the Blue Devil offense may struggle in this contest, it will be difficult for the home team to pull away by such a margin, especially given the game trends in Duke’s prior outings. There’s no denying that the unit commanded by defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke has been impressive this season, especially late in games. Additionally, although the offense is often slow to start, late-game surges have been characteristic of the Blue Devils, as seen against North Carolina, UConn and Northwestern. Expect Duke to make it difficult on the Yellow Jackets when it matters most.
Pick: Duke +8.5
Over/Under 52.5 Total Points
This season, Duke football has made a habit of shutting down opposing offenses. The road trip to Atlanta will undoubtedly be the toughest test of the young season for the Blue Devils, who are eight-and-a-half-point underdogs to Georgia Tech. However, spirits will be high coming off an incredible second half last week in which Duke’s defensive unit conceded just three points in an emotional come-from-behind victory against archrival North Carolina. Expect this group to be fired up and looking to keep their momentum going.
Although the offense for the Blue Devils has shown flashes of power, scoring has been inconsistent. Facing a stout opponent in a hostile environment, miscues and frustration may be inevitable on the offensive side. Scrappy, close, low-scoring contests have been a Duke trademark thus far, and Saturday night will likely be no different. The total score this season has fallen short of 50 points in four out of five games for the Blue Devils. Additionally, Georgia Tech games have hit the under in total scoring every time this season besides their blowout victory over Virginia Military Institute, an FCS squad.
Expect this affair to be dominated by the two defenses, both of whom rank in the top six in the ACC for fewest points allowed per game.
Pick: Under 52.5
Star Thomas Over/Under 117.5 Rushing Yards
Star Thomas has become a centerpiece in the Duke offense over the last three games. In each contest, the Homer, La., native logged over 110 rushing yards on at least 15 carries. When making projections, rushing statistics often need to be taken with a grain of salt, making sure that one or two long distance runs don’t augment expectations of future performance. This, however, is not a concern with Thomas. In his 166-yard game against North Carolina, the graduate transfer had no carries go for more than 20 yards. In fact, over the course of the entire season, he is yet to have a single run of over 25 yards. It is the volume and consistency that makes Thomas a trustworthy candidate for a big game. The fact that he is still averaging 4.8 yards per carry in the absence of any big runs speaks for itself.
Offenses are generally forced to focus on the passing game when trailing, resulting in disappointing totals from running backs. Usually, this would be a concern for the eight-and-a-half-point underdogs’ lead back. However, coach Manny Diaz does not appear to subscribe to this idea. In fact, last time out, the offense especially leaned on Thomas in the second half despite trailing by as many as 20 points. Diaz has shown that even in dire circumstances, he is willing to put the ball on the ground and trust the run game. Although the Blue Devils played from behind essentially the entire game against North Carolina, Thomas still tallied a whopping 30 carries.
Trusting that his usage stays high, in addition to the chance that Thomas can crack a big gain or two, expect another impressive performance on the ground.
Pick: Over 117.5
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