Duke football will come in looking to knock off a strong and nationally-ranked SMU team in its first matchup against the Mustangs since 1956. The Blue Zone is here with an overview, stats to watch, X-factors and keys to the game:
Overview
Overall record: 6-1
Head coach: Rhett Lashlee
Series history: Duke leads 2-0
Last Meeting: 14-6 Duke, Oct. 13, 1956
SMU comes into the matchup officially bowl-eligible after a dominant 40-10 win against Stanford at the Cardinal’s home stadium Oct. 19. The 22nd-ranked Mustangs have had a strong inaugural season in the ACC, with their only loss being to now-No. 11 BYU, leaving SMU unbeaten in conference play. The Mustangs come off an 11-3 season in their previous conference, the AAC. As one of only three ACC teams left unbeaten in conference play — the others being Miami and Clemson — SMU looks to stay at the top of the conference for a chance at the championship game. Prior to routing Stanford, the Mustangs notched a 34-27 win against then-No. 22 Louisville. In nearly every other game this season, SMU has had a strong defensive showing. This may prove to be an issue against a weaker Duke offense.
The turning point in the season for the Mustangs was when sophomore Kevin Jennings was moved to starting quarterback, taking over for junior Preston Stone in mid-September. At the beginning of the season, head coach Rhett Lashlee gave Stone and Jennings fairly equal playing time, but after three consecutive three-and-outs by Stone in SMU’s loss to BYU Jennings was promoted to the starting roster, where he has stayed since. The Oak Cliff, Texas, native has been responsible for 857 passing yards and six touchdowns in conference play this season.
One of SMU’s other star players, however, won’t be found at Wallace Wade Stadium this weekend. Standout tight end RJ Maryland suffered a season-ending knee injury in California last week. Maryland has been an important member of the Mustang offense with 24 receptions and 359 yards this season. His absence will likely give the already-strong Blue Devil defense a leg up this Saturday. -Kate Reiniche
Key stat
At this point in the season, it's difficult to pinpoint a weakness for SMU, especially against a team like Duke that ran into offensive troubles against Florida State — a group the Mustangs easily dispatched earlier in the season. However, with Maryland’s injury, the Blue Devils’ best bet for success is on the defensive side of the ball. Specifically, they need to minimize the visiting team’s rushing yards.
Duke has not been a strong running team this season, with an average of 112.4 ground yards per game compared to SMU’s 199.6. With a strong defense on the Mustangs’ end, the home team needs to be prepared to change its offensive game if it wants to match up to SMU. Looking at the comparison of rushing yards allowed in the Seminoles’ past matchups against the Mustangs and Blue Devils, SMU allowed Florida State only 63 rushing yards. Comparatively, when playing the Blue Devils, the Seminoles notched more yards on the ground than Duke did, picking up 162. If Duke isn’t careful, the Mustangs may have the ability to take the Blue Devils’ already-low rushing output down even further. -Reiniche
X-Factor
Duke: Ozzie Nicholas
The FCS All-American winner is a recent transfer from Princeton, arriving in Durham as a veteran linebacker. With the Blue Devils, he’s demonstrated a knack for turnovers, building Diaz’s legacy of producing top-notch defensive powerhouses. His leadership and experience will be critical as the team faces its most challenging opponent yet.
Nicholas recently earned ACC Linebacker of the Week after a dominant performance against Florida State. He not only forced a crucial fumble from quarterback Brock Glenn but also intercepted a pass, adding another momentum-shifting turnover to his stat sheet. The linebacker's ability to disrupt plays will be crucial if the Blue Devils hope to hold the Mustangs' offense. The 6-1 Duke team is eager to secure a home victory against nationally-ranked SMU. Nicholas will need to continue to force game-changing turnovers in order to give the Blue Devils a shot of coming out of the matchup victorious.
SMU: Brashard Smith
The former slot receiver has become a star running back for the Mustangs. After transferring from Miami during the off-season, Smith has seen the field in all seven of SMU’s games this season.
He stands out as a runner who can carry the ball efficiently. Averaging 6.9 rush yards per carry, Smith is ranked eighth in the FBS. His versatility as an athlete leaves him with 147 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Smith’s dual role as a rushing and receiving force has allowed him to break through defenses while demonstrating a strong ability out of the backfield.
As the Mustangs seek victory in Wallace Wade Stadium, the running back is expected to be a key player in SMU’s offense. Facing Duke’s elite defense, Smith will have to use his dynamic abilities to rack up points. His position as an offensive force could ultimately be the x-factor that allows SMU to overcome Duke’s formidable defense and secure a win. -Lucy Glynn
Three keys for Duke
Keep the ball in the offense’s hands: Sometimes the best defense is a good offense, but for the Blue Devils last Saturday, the best offense was a good defense. Duke notched a gritty win against Florida State in part because its defenders forced four turnovers that kept the football in Maalik Murphy’s hands even when the offensive unit struggled to be productive. Especially facing an offense as potent as SMU, the Blue Devils will have to work on both sides of the ball to take possessions away from the Mustangs and give Murphy the opportunity to go to work.
A key challenge for the Blue Devils will be maintaining possessions on third down. Duke has converted for a first down on just 26.8% of third downs this year, and just 19.05% in its last three games. Creating opportunities and keeping possessions alive will be crucial to keeping SMU’s heavy-hitting offense at bay and giving a tough Blue Devil defense a rest. After a slow night for the passing game against the Seminoles, top receivers Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol will look to give Duke more momentum through the air Saturday night.
Slow the SMU rush: Led by a true dual-threat quarterback in Kevin Jennings, the Mustang offense finds its firepower in the run game, trailing only Clemson and Virginia Tech in the conference for rushing yards per game. Jennings is SMU’s second-leading rusher on the season with 280 yards, but its greatest threat is Miami transfer Brashard Smith, who averages nearly seven yards per carry.
The Mustangs may rely more than usual on the run game Saturday without the help of leading receiver RJ Maryland; the tight end was injured last weekend against Stanford and will not return for the remainder of the season; Running the ball has been Jennings’ go-to second option all season and will surely be a key strategy this weekend. The Blue Devils have maintained a solid run defense this season, holding opponents to 3.8 yards per attempt this season, but Jonathan Patke’s crew will have to step up once again against an outstanding SMU rushing attack.
Capitalize on red zone opportunities: Duke will look to control the red zone on either end of the field to keep pace with the Mustangs. The Blue Devils have been fairly efficient inside the 20-yard line so far this season on the offensive end, scoring on over 87% of drives. Finding the end zone will be critical against an SMU offense that scores over 40 points per game on average.
On the visitors’ side, red zone efficiency was the Achilles’ heel in the Mustangs’ opener and sole loss to BYU: they failed to score a touchdown and were forced to settle for five field goals on the night. Meanwhile, Duke’s defense has generally kept opponents outside of the red zone altogether; Florida State only cracked the 20-yard line once this past weekend. The Blue Devils will have to continue to excel and make stops under pressure against a more potent offensive unit Saturday. -Sarah Muir
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