Duke football — and the students — have the weekend off, and the Blue Devils are 5-1 through the halfway point of their season. Our football beats are here with midseason takeaways and what to look for in the upcoming weeks:
What are your takeaways from Duke’s 5-1 start? Has Duke exceeded, underwhelmed or met your expectations?
Dom Fenoglio: As much as I have — as any person who watches football does — reacted to each and every week as though it was a serious harbinger of Duke’s season, I see the Blue Devils start as a whole as entirely what I expected coming into the year. Yes, they faltered at times in nonconference play, but they also showed a whole lot of resilience. Head coach Manny Diaz’s squad has also struggled to find cohesion for four quarters in ACC play, something that may upset fans who watched the team’s hot start, but should come as no surprise for anyone thinking about a team with a first-year head coach. So, while the remaining six regular-season games on the schedule for Duke look differently than they did to start the year, I still see a similar final outcome for the Blue Devils.
Abby DiSalvo: Duke began its season with the benefit of potential. There was hope that raw talent — a new coach, transfer quarterback and handful of hungry veterans — could smooth out any inevitable rebuilding struggles. While the Blue Devils never gelled together perfectly in their first five games, they did manage to showcase consistent depth and determination on the field. Each cinematically-dramatic fourth quarter surpassed the expectations of many Blue Devil fans, making for immensely entertaining football. With that being said, I think Duke’s falter against Georgia Tech places it squarely into the “met expectations” zone. The young team clearly still has some offensive puzzle pieces to click into place, and it was due for a reality check on the field.
Rodrigo Amare: I don’t think many people expected Duke to seriously compete against the ACC’s best during Manny Diaz’s first season in charge. While the Blue Devils boast an impressive 5-1 record to start the year, only one of those wins have come against a team with a winning record and only two of Duke’s victories have been won by more than one score. Diaz’s men certainly deserve credit for emerging with wins in tight games, especially during the Blue Devils’ historic come-from-behind win against North Carolina. Some may even argue that beating the Tar Heels alone makes this a successful season regardless of what happens in the final six games of the year. Overall, I think Duke has met expectations so far, but has the potential to fully exceed them in the next two months.
What are your thoughts on the ACC so far, and what has changed from your preseason predictions?
Ranjan Jindal: Coming into the season, I was interested in the middle of the ACC, which I felt would be stronger than in the past. I still think Clemson and Miami are probably on a collision course to Charlotte, and I still like the Tigers to take the crown. I am surprised by how well SMU has played with dual-threat quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has given them additional explosiveness behind a stout offensive line. One thing that has changed is N.C. State’s position, who I was relatively high on at the start of the year, but its typically stingy defense has not lived up to standards. Two other reeling teams to watch for me are Virginia Tech — who I think will continue to get better as the season goes on — and Louisville, who has the offensive capabilities to defeat Miami and Pittsburgh. I also predicted Virginia and Anthony Colandrea to cause some disruptions in the league, but the Cavaliers’ schedule gets really tough down the stretch.
Tyler Walley: In addition to the downfalls of Florida State and North Carolina, there have been some major surprises so far. Pittsburgh deserves its flowers for being undefeated through five games, while Virginia is having its best start in years thanks in part to a balanced rushing attack. Dual-threat quarterbacks like Clemson’s Cade Klubnik and SMU’s Kevin Jennings have paced the conference so far, but none have been better than Miami’s Cam Ward. The senior signal-caller and Heisman candidate has truly put the Hurricanes in the driver’s seat for the ACC’s de facto at-large bid to the CFP, although close victories against Cal and Virginia Tech call Miami’s national pedigree into question. On a bigger scale, the conference is 2-5 against the SEC, down from 6-4 in 2023. Given the SEC is projected to snag at least two at-large bids in the CFP, the ACC champion may face immediate trouble in January.
Which of Duke’s remaining games do you have marked on the calendar?
Caleb Dudley: While there are several matchups against higher-ranked teams left, nothing quite beats an in-state rivalry. For that reason, the Nov. 9 matchup against N.C. State sticks out to me as Duke will travel to Carter-Finley Stadium. Last year, the Blue Devils completely dominated in a 24-3 home victory, so the Wolfpack will certainly be looking for revenge. After being picked by some to finish near the top of the league, head coach Dave Doeren’s group sits at 3-3 and 0-2 in the ACC, with several high-profile transfer portal additions just failing to mesh so far. As the season progresses, N.C. State may be fighting for bowl eligibility and Doeren his job, which makes the rivalry game that much more enticing.
DiSalvo: This season has shaken up the ACC, with traditional powerhouses like FSU losing steam and new additions like SMU establishing reputations of their own. For that reason, Duke’s Oct. 26 game against the Mustangs looms increasingly large on the calendar. SMU has raced out to a hot 5-1 start — just like the Blue Devils — but the Mustangs have beaten tougher competition, positioning themselves at No. 25 in the AP poll. While Duke should be able to bounce back from its Georgia Tech loss with a win against Florida State, the following game against the Mustangs will be its toughest test yet. If the Blue Devils can pull off the win at home against a serious opponent, it will earn them respect within the conference and bolster hopes for a respectable season finish. If they crumble under the pressure, fans will know to keep expectations tempered.
Jindal: I totally agree with what Abby and Caleb said, and the interesting part about the rest of the season is that every game — with maybe the exception of Miami — could feasibly go either way for Duke. I’ll pick the last game on the schedule, a road contest with Wake Forest. Winning on the road is difficult anywhere, and transfer quarterback Hank Bachmeier has put up some points in Winston Salem. Plus, the Demon Deacons are probably the weakest defense this offense will face, so if Duke is in a lack of rhythm, that game could be a confidence boost moving forward. In the possible, but unlikely, situation that Duke is 5-6 going into that game, a win will be essential for bowl eligibility.
What must Duke focus on down the stretch to be successful?
Martin Heintzelman: For the most part, the defense has looked good this season. The Blue Devils haven’t given up a ton of points in any games, and it is working exactly as expected with the high number of tackles for loss. That said, the offense has, at times, looked bad. An attack that was supposed to focus on creating big plays to take advantage of Murphy’s arm has struggled to do so, and the quarterback has not found a ton of success even on shorter passes. The run game, led by Star Thomas, has stepped up to fill the void, but the reality is that this team isn’t built to grind out long drives with 3- or 4-yard runs. If the offense, and especially the passing game, can wake up and be as dangerous as we thought it might be in the preseason, then things could go well for the second half of the season. If Murphy continues to flounder, then the Blue Devils are in trouble.
Fenoglio: As much as the offense is and should be the main concern for Diaz, I think the team needs to lean into its strength. The defense has continued to play extremely well this season, and the secondary in particular has shut opponents down. While Murphy and the offense take more time to learn and grow, it will be the defense that bears the responsibility of winning Duke games. The Blue Devils currently sit at second in the nation in tackles for loss, and with an abundance of playmakers all over the field, this trend may continue in the back half of the season. The Blue Devils should focus on retaining their strong defensive identity and forcing opponents into mistakes.
Dudley: To me, the most glaring issue thus far has been the rhythm of the offense. For as talented as Murphy and the rest of the offense is, they have been largely unable to string together successful drives, especially early in contests. Against Georgia Tech, Murphy started 1-for-4 for two yards in the first quarter. No matter how good the defense is, that is not sustainable if Duke wants to contend with top ACC teams. In my opinion, the offensive line has been plenty serviceable throughout the entire season, so it is just a matter of the quarterback and his receivers getting on the same page and an adjustment in scheme to get him throwing easy completions early to get a rhythm flowing. If they can do this, the Blue Devils should be able to make noise down the stretch.
What will Duke’s final regular-season record be?
Walley: 8-4
Despite the unpredictability of the ACC this season, my preseason predictions for the second half of the season haven’t changed much. For a small change, the Blue Devils should get by the struggling Seminoles with relative ease to clinch bowl eligibility next week. In the last four, I still see the Blue Devils losing to Miami, N.C. State and Virginia Tech in sequence before securing a victory against an overmatched Wake Forest squad. That leaves SMU Oct. 26, and against my better judgment, I continue to circle that as Duke’s best win of the season. I think a half-season of tape on Jennings and the Blue Devils’ season-long tenacity on defense will be just enough to allow the offense to operate against a hot-and-cold secondary, which will get Duke to 7-1 on the season.
Amare: 8-4
The ACC seems much weaker this year than most college football experts predicted. Even if Duke doesn’t play particularly well during the final stretch of the season, it could easily come away with three wins or more. I don’t expect the Blue Devils to even compete against Miami, but any of its other remaining five games definitely seem winnable. Next week’s game at home against Florida State will give us a great measure of where Diaz’s squad is at. The Seminoles have had a terrible 2024 season, but still have plenty of talent left over from their ACC-winning team last year. If Duke beats Florida State in Wallace Wade Stadium, I could see the Blue Devils riding that momentum into a win against SMU, and further wins against at least one of NC State, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. But if the Blue Devils fall to the Seminoles, the season could easily spiral out of control.
Heintzelman: 7-5
Realistically, I think the loss to Georgia Tech signaled the beginning of the end for this year’s iteration of Duke football. It is entirely plausible, in my opinion, that the relatively young Blue Devils lose to Florida State and spiral from there. They’ll likely pick up a win against Wake Forest and N.C. State, but with the way the group struggled against the Yellow Jackets, I find it difficult to picture a world where it manages to win any of the other games remaining on the schedule. With almost-guaranteed losses to Miami and SMU and a tough matchup against Virginia Tech, it will be a challenge to pull out more than seven wins on the season. That certainly isn’t an indictment of Diaz or the rest of the team, just the inevitable result of having a new head coach and quarterback coming into a tough conference slate.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.
Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Ranjan Jindal is a Trinity junior and sports editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Rodrigo Amare is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Martin Heintzelman is a Trinity junior and Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Abby DiSalvo is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.