In today’s era of college football, things can change on a dime.
Look no further for evidence than Tobacco Road, where things have changed drastically for both Duke and North Carolina over the past year. Last November, Mike Elko took a surprise midnight flight to College Station, Texas, to take over the Texas A&M program, prompting the Blue Devils to conduct a nationwide coaching search that landed them Manny Diaz.
The story in Chapel Hill is a little more current, with rumors swirling about head coach Mack Brown leaving the program after a disastrous Sept. 21 loss to James Madison at home. The Tar Heels gave up an astounding 70 points to the Dukes, which tied a 2014, 70-41 loss to East Carolina for the most points the program had ever surrendered. After the game, stories emerged that Brown had asked the team if it still believed that he was the right man to lead the program. The university has not made any players available for comment since the loss.
Now the two programs will meet Saturday in Durham. The two schools seem to be on completely different trajectories on the gridiron, both for the current season and the future.
Duke is coming off two straight impressive seasons, winning 17 total games including two bowl victories. In 2023, the Blue Devils were talked about as a possible CFP contender when College GameDay came to town before hosting Notre Dame, and quarterback Riley Leonard was getting serious buzz in the national media.
Unfortunately, things don’t always work out perfectly, and a 4th-and-16 conversion by the Fighting Irish led to Leonard getting injured and Duke’s season ultimately being dampened. After Elko departed following the regular-season finale, it seemed as if dark days were on the horizon yet again in Durham. Multiple major contributors from last year’s roster transferred elsewhere, including Leonard and star running back Jordan Waters.
Four games into the 2024 season, all of the gloom and doom seems to have mostly disappeared. The Diaz-led Blue Devils are yet to drop a game and will come into Saturday’s matchup with their archrival 4-0 and knocking on the door of the AP Top 25 Poll. Quarterback Maalik Murphy was a get in the transfer portal the likes of which Duke has never been able to fish out, and the Texas transfer has performed as advertised thus far. Add in a swarming defense that is at or near the top in multiple major defensive categories this season, and the future of the Diaz era seems bright.
That aforementioned gloom seems to have moved down Tobacco Road and settled in Chapel Hill, where things have unraveled a third of the way through the campaign. The season opener against Minnesota was a win that came with some major costs, as starting quarterback Max Johnson suffered a season-ending injury. The Tar Heels then tried out Conner Harrell, who was serviceable in two wins against inferior opponents but not impressive enough to hold off third-stringer Jacolby Criswell, who took the start against James Madison.
The complicated quarterback situation only accents the major problem that has plagued North Carolina over Brown’s tenure, which is defense, or the lack thereof. Brown brought in former national champion Gene Chizik to head up his defense for the past few seasons, but finally fired him after poor defense cost the Tar Heels one too many games. Former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins stepped in as the replacement — but since the Tar Heels looked just as porous against the Dukes, it was hard to notice the switch in staff.
Generally, under Brown, North Carolina has had a superstar quarterback like Sam Howell or Drake Maye to mask these issues and propel the Tar Heels to victory, like the double overtime game against Duke last year in Chapel Hill. However, without that crutch this season, things may get rough for North Carolina in conference play while Brown’s seat gradually warms up.
All that being said, it seems like the two programs are at a crossroads. Diaz has the arrow pointing up, with his style of play evident on the defensive end and one of the best recruiting classes in Duke history waiting in the wings, headlined by four-star defensive end Bryce Davis, who Diaz was able to lure away from Clemson. Meanwhile, rumors of the end of the Mack Brown era are swirling, and there does not seem to be an easy fix to the quarterback or defense issue in Chapel Hill.
On Saturday, we will see if the Tar Heels can right the ship or if the trajectories of the rivals will continue to separate.
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