Ahead of Duke football’s game against UConn tonight, the Blue Zone gives its thoughts on some key prop bets:
Duke (-16.5) vs. UConn
Although the 2024 NCAA football season is only two weeks young, it feels safe to say that these two teams are already trending in opposite directions. After a 26-3 win over Elon to open the season, Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils paid a visit to Evanston, Ill., where they defeated Northwestern in a 26-20 double-overtime thriller. In spite of early-game struggles against a tough Wildcats defense, redshirt sophomore quarterback Maalik Murphy found his form during the extra period—needing only three passes to deliver two touchdown strikes.
Unlike Duke, UConn fell flat to open the season against a Big 10 opponent of its own in a 50-7 blowout loss to Maryland. However, the Huskies bounced back last Saturday by trouncing Merrimack College to the tune of a 46-point win. After recording only 310 yards against the Terrapins, UConn more than doubled its offensive output in its matchup with the Warriors. The Huskies’ sixth-year senior quarterback, Joe Fagnano, certainly has the experience in terms of games played, yet this weekend in Durham will be only his fourth time playing a Power 5 defense. In the three previous such contests, Fagnano recorded 183.7 passing yards per game, a 50.6% completion percentage and a 3:4 touchdown to interception ratio. Now facing a Blue Devils defense which held Elon and Northwestern to a combined 16 points across the first eight quarters of the season, Fagnano and the UConn offense do not inspire much confidence.
Even with injuries to starting running back Jaquez Moore and tight end Jeremiah Hasley, this Duke offense looks to maintain its momentum against a beaten down Huskies defensive unit. Graduate wide receiver Jordan Moore has had a Biletnikoff Award-worthy start to the season; with 18 receptions, 233 receiving yards and a lone score already on the year, Moore figures to keep improving as his chemistry with Murphy grows. Facing a UConn defense that surrendered 381 yards through the air just two weeks ago, the Murphy-Moore connection should show its budding strength.
College football’s unpredictability cannot be denied — Notre Dame’s stunning upset to Northern Illinois last week could not be a more perfect example. Yet, all signs here point to not just a Duke win, but a decisive triumph decided by more than two touchdowns.
-Alex Min
Pick: Duke -16.5
Over/Under 47.5 points
The Huskies opened the season away at Maryland with a tough 50-7 loss, before bouncing back with a convincing 63-17 home victory over Merrimack last weekend. In the loss to Maryland, UConn’s defense showed an inability to defend against a strong pass or run game, giving up 381 passing yards and 248 rushing yards on the night. Additionally, the Huskies offense failed to gain any traction early, causing the team to trail by 30 points just four minutes into the second half. However, in their win against Merrimack, UConn quarterback Joe Fagnano displayed his ability to pick apart poor defenses, going 10-of-13 for 298 yards and four passing touchdowns in the first half alone. Fagnano’s dominance, which also included a rushing touchdown of his own, and rushing touchdowns from running backs Durell Robinson and Victor Rosa resulted in UConn entering the 3rd quarter with a comfortable lead of 49 points.
The Huskies will hope to carry that momentum into Saturday’s game against Duke; however, this game should prove more difficult for them. Despite losing several key upperclassmen defensive players to the NFL in the offseason, the NCAA has the Blue Devils’ defense ranked 15th, even higher than last year, when Duke finished the year ranked 17th. The Blue Devils lead the nation in tackles for losses with 27, and have defended well against Northwestern and Elon’s pass game. Duke’s defensive prowess will likely result in difficulty for UConn’s quarterback, and should dissuade betters from relying on another high scoring performance from the Huskies. The Blue Devils’ offense has averaged 26 points per game and only given up an average of 11.5 points thus far, resulting in two relatively low-scoring games. Betters should assume this trend will continue and expect less than 47.5 points in the game.
-Ryan Kazerani
Pick: Under 47.5
Jordan Moore Over/Under 78.5 receiving yards
It seems like wide receiver Jordan Moore is set to embark on his best season yet; in the first two games of the year, he caught 18 receptions for 233 yards, more than twice the amount of yards he had at the same point last year. Despite a messy Duke offense against the Wildcats last week, Moore was able to stand out and turn the tide in the Blue Devils’ favor with a clean slant route for a touchdown in the offense’s first overtime play. A week before that, the graduate wide receiver topped the box score as a consistent target for quarterback Maalik Murphy against Elon.
UConn’s disappointing pass defense should improve Moore’s odds of continued exceptional play. In the Huskies’ first match against Maryland two weeks ago, they allowed 381 passing yards, contributing to their ranking of 113th in the nation for passing yards allowed this season.
Coincidentally, Moore hails from Sykesville, Md., so a repeat of UConn’s Maryland-based struggles Saturday is more than on the table. Moore has momentum while UConn’s defense can’t help but stumble over themselves. Duke’s star wideout to outperform again and field some impressive catches against the Huskies.
-Kevin Li
Pick: Over 78.5 receiving yards
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