As Duke football returns home for a highly-anticipated rivalry match against North Carolina, the Blue Zone breaks down some can’t miss prop bets:
Duke (-2.5) vs North Carolina:
The Blue Devils have had an explosive undefeated 4-0 start to the 2024 season buoyed by first-year head coach Manny Diaz and incoming transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy. Duke’s success shows no sign of slowing down. Last week’s blowout against Middle Tennessee, though expected, once again demonstrated the strength of the Blue Devils’ passing offense and defense in a 45-17 win. Murphy completed 14 passes for 216 yards and tight end Nicky Dalmolin caught exactly 100 yards for two touchdowns. In addition, running back Star Thomas logged his second game in a row with over a hundred rushing yards, hitting 122 and 111 against UConn and the Blue Raiders respectively.
Conversely, last week saw North Carolina lose in a crushing upset, with James Madison taking a coveted 70-50 victory against the Tar Heels. The Dukes made quick work of North Carolina’s defense, taking an aggressive 53-21 lead at the half. The five turnovers and 611 yards the Tar Heels allowed last Saturday land the team at 70th place in the NCAA’s defense rankings. Though there were some bright spots for North Carolina’s offense, such as quarterback Jacolby Criswell’s whopping 475 passing yards, the team just doesn’t seem like it’s in a strong position to take on its old rival.
Duke hasn’t won a game against the Tar Heels since 2018. Though last year saw yet another defeat, there’s more than enough precedent in this season to give a definitive pick for this line. The Blue Devils should win and cover the spread.
-Kevin Li
Pick: Duke -2.5
Over/Under 55.5 Total Points
Repetition is the bane of writers and it’ll be the bane of North Carolina as well. If last week was a tell-all memoir, Saturday will be the Wikipedia update. The Tar Heels’ defense appears to be a porous mess for Duke to leak through with ease. With the Blue Devil offense averaging 30.8 points per game in its last four matches, the over line is well within reach.
North Carolina’s offense has also been outperforming with an offensive ranking of 22nd. Tar Heel running back Omarion Hampton has been averaging 138.75 rushing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game, an important fact considering that Duke’s rushing defense has been underwhelming when compared to their passing defense; that deficiency should permit Hampton to have a big day.
Going into this game, both teams have a chip on their shoulder. For the Blue Devils, it’s a chance to tip the scales of the rivalry back in their favor. For North Carolina, it’s a need to bounce back from last week’s embarrassing performance. With everything at stake, a high scoring game is all but inevitable.
- Kevin Li
Pick: Over 55.5
Omarion Hampton Over/Under 113.5 Rushing Yards
Omarion Hampton remains the backbone of the North Carolina offense, consistently proving himself as a reliable and explosive weapon. Hampton has run for more than his projected rushing yards in five of his last seven games, a trend that has no reason to slow down, especially in a contentious rivalry game.
The Clayton, N.C., native’s, recent rushing performance has been nothing short of spectacular. Hampton demolished North Carolina Central with a 210-yard showing and followed that up with a strong 139-yard game against a tougher James Madison defense. This rivalry will bring out the best in Hampton, so expect him to be at the center of the Tar Heels' offensive game plan. Since North Carolina allowed the Dukes to drop 70 points, holes in the Tar Heel defense should open the door for a high-scoring shootout. Consequently, expect Hampton to have a standout day.
Given Hampton’s recent performances, North Carolina’s reliance on his success, and the hype surrounding the rivalry game, expect the Tar Heel running back to gain over 113.5 yards. Duke is yet to see a rushing force as explosive as Hampton this season, which, combined with his volume and efficiency, makes this prop particularly attractive.
- Yash Sharma
Pick: Over 113.5
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