As Duke prepares to take on Middle Tennessee, the Blue Zone gives its pre-game insight on some prop bets:
Duke (-14.5) vs. Middle Tennessee
Duke football has had a strong start to its season with a 26-3 rout of Elon, a 26-20 nailbiter against Northwestern and a 26-21 win against UConn. However, the Blue Devils haven’t been perfect, especially in their last two outings; at the Blue Raiders, the team will hope to avoid the mistakes that led to double-overtime against the Wildcats and allowed the Huskies to take a fourth-quarter lead. Admittedly, given Middle Tennessee’s lackluster season so far, it’s unlikely Duke will worry about another late game comeback should it get an early lead. Receiver Eli Pancol will be someone to look out for given his performance this season and his 36-yard touchdown reception last week. Quarterback Maalik Murphy has also been good this season, and if he finds his rhythm early, the game could be a foregone conclusion by halftime.
The Blue Raiders have seen more heartache, going 1-2 through three games. Despite starting the season with a 32-25 win over Tennessee Tech, Middle Tennessee lost 49-21 against Western Kentucky last Saturday after being routed by Ole Miss 52-3 the week before. Against the Hilltoppers, the Blue Raiders failed to convert on any fourth-downs and had a third-down efficiency 20% worse than their opponents. Additionally, in both of their losses, Middle Tennessee was crushed in the first quarter, failing to score a single point while falling behind by double digits.
Overall, the matchup seems favorable for the Blue Devils, but that doesn’t mean Duke’s momentum can’t be broken. If the Blue Devils can establish dominance early on and power through the Blue Raiders’ leaky defense, it would certainly make life easy for head coach Manny Diaz and give Duke a comfortable lead. Overall, it doesn’t look like too hard of a lift for the Blue Devils, so long as they keep mid-game mistakes to a minimum.
-Samanyu Gangappa
Pick: Duke -14.5
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
In both of its losses, a lack of rushing yards has been Middle Tennessee’s Achilles heel. Against the Rebels, the Blue Raiders managed only 28 yards on the ground compared to Ole Miss’s 258. Middle Tennessee’s running game improved slightly against Western Kentucky, but not by much, as it managed only 58 yards compared to the Hilltoppers’ 150.
On the other hand, Duke has overcome deficits in rushing yards with its passing game. For instance, in their win over UConn, the Blue Devils were outgained on the ground by 37 yards, but pulled ahead largely due to a 132-yard advantage in the air. Diaz’s squad has also been ahead at the end of the first quarter in all three games so far, which could be a good sign if the pattern continues Saturday.
If Duke can get off to another fast start with its passing game and shore up its ground attack, it’ll likely force the Blue Raiders to play from behind, leading to more passing and a higher-scoring game. With Middle Tennessee’s vulnerable defense, this could easily turn into an Ole Miss-style blowout, pushing the total score past the 51.5 mark.
-Amran Hudda, Samanyu Gangappa
Pick: Over 51.5 points
Maalik Murphy Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Maalik Murphy has proven his ability to deliver when it counts for the Blue Devils. Against Northwestern, he threw for three touchdowns, including one on a crucial drive in double overtime to win the game, showcasing his poise under pressure. The Inglewood, Calif., native matched those three touchdowns against UConn and added another two against Elon earlier in the season. His connection with receivers Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol has been electric this year, dropping six of his eight touchdowns between the two.
Murphy’s ability to read defenses and Middle Tennessee’s secondary — which has allowed seven passing touchdowns over their last two games — positions him well to exceed 1.5 passing touchdowns in this matchup. The Blue Raiders’ defensive struggles, particularly in the first half, should give Murphy ample opportunities to take advantage of short-yardage situations and capitalize in the red zone.
Given Duke’s likely early dominance and Murphy’s track record of multi-touchdown games, expect him to surpass the 1.5 passing touchdown mark comfortably.
-Amran Hudda
Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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Samanyu Gangappa is a Trinity sophomore and local/national news editor for the news department.