Duke football returns home Saturday to play UConn, so The Chronicle is here to break down the stats to watch, X-factors and keys to the game:

Overview

2024 record: 1-1

Head coach: Jim Mora (second season)

Series history: UConn leads 2-1

Last meeting: 41-7 Duke, Sept. 23, 2023

UConn is coming off a 3-9 season, at the end of which it missed a bowl game. Last campaign came with a dip in performance after the team amassed a 6-7 record in 2022, its highest record in the past ten years. Despite their struggles last term, the Huskies ended the year with two straight wins, including a 31-18 victory over UMass. UConn started 2024 off with a devastating 50-7 loss to Maryland, but later bounced back in a 63-17 win over Merrimack last week.

Mora’s biggest transfer win during the offseason was Nick Evers, a 6-foot-3 quarterback out of Flower Mound, Texas, coming to Storrs, Conn., after consecutive one-year spells at Oklahoma and Wisconsin. However, Evers suffered a head injury during the Huskies’ loss to the Terrapins. As a result, backup quarterback Joe Fagnano was inserted into the lineup. Last week, Fagnano was a key player in UConn’s victory, passing for 328 yards and a joint-school-record five touchdowns. Now that Evers has recovered, Mora will face a tough decision in picking his starter against Duke Saturday.

Fresh off a comeback win in Evanston, Ill., the Duke offense will be looking at its third-down struggles as a clear area for improvement. It will be vital for the Blue Devils’ defense to halt UConn in crucial plays and capitalize on the ensuing possessions. In previous games, Duke has been able to convert on 33.3% of its attempts on third down, just slightly poorer than the Huskies’ rate of 37% in the same situation. That stat will be pivotal in the upcoming game as both teams must perform in those key scenarios on both sides of the ball. 

UConn’s defense has built a stable wall on third downs through two games, only allowing its opponents to convert on 32.4% of the time. Consequently, Duke should be cautious to avoid third-and-long situations. This is especially true when the Blue Devils put themselves in that position through costly penalties, which plagued the offense against Northwestern. On the defensive side of the ball, Duke’s ability to get into the backfield and harass UConn's quarterback will prove vital to its success. If Fagnano starts Saturday after his 328-yard five-touchdown performance against Merrimack, the Blue Devils must focus on making sure he is not afforded too much time in the pocket and that the Husky offense does not find success on third down. When all is said and done, football games are won by doing the little things right. This weekend in Durham, the most important thing for both teams to hone in on should be succeeding on third down. 

- Ava Guglielmo

X-Factor

Duke: Maalik Murphy

Duke’s big transfer portal acquisition was far from perfect on the road in Evanston, Ill., against Northwestern last Friday, but he came up big for the Blue Devils when it mattered. Murphy delivered back-to-back overtime strikes to star receiver Jordan Moore, then sealed the game with a touchdown pass to Eli Pancol. He finished the game with a respectable 243 passing yards and three touchdowns, a statline he will be eager to build upon against UConn Saturday.

For the Duke offense, this matchup will be a great opportunity to build confidence in its ability to attack through the air. In Week 1 this year Maryland torched the Huskies’ secondary for 381 passing yards in a 50-7 blowout victory. Murphy will be looking to continue establishing his connection with his receivers — especially his favorite target, Moore. The duo has combined 18 times for 226 yards this season behind some aggressive play calling from offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer. Given Murphy’s arm talent and his tendency to air it out, he should be in for a big game against a struggling UConn defense.

Murphy has found success in his first two tests as a Blue Devil. That said, Duke fans should expect him to take the next step at home against a subpar defensive unit, as the offense gears up for more difficult competition in the coming weeks.

UConn: Jayden McDonald

UConn comes into Durham on Saturday hungry for a win. Despite pummeling Merrimack 63-17 last weekend, its 50-7 loss to Maryland in Week 1 is sure to have left a bitter taste in the mouths of Husky fans. In order to come out on top, the UConn defense will have to rise to the challenge the Duke offense presents. The key to doing so lies in the form of Jayden McDonald. The star linebacker leads the Huskies in total tackles with 14, while also boasting a respectable 1.5 tackles for loss. 

As a linebacker, it is McDonald’s responsibility to command his defense as they try to hold back the Blue Devils. Having previously played for Troy from 2020-23, the Suwanee, Ga., native has plenty of experience to draw on. He finished his career with the Trojans with an impressive 191 total tackles, 22 of which came for a loss. Additionally, Pro Football Focus rated him as the nation’s seventh-best linebacker at pressuring the quarterback with a grade of 88.8. For a Duke offense that has struggled to pass the ball under pressure, McDonald could be very influential if he can keep getting into the backfield.

As UConn tries to get back on track by earning a win against a Power Four opponent in Duke, McDonald needs to be at his best for things to go its way. If the defense fails to keep the Blue Devils quiet, it could be a long night in Durham for the Huskies.

-Ben Curtis

3 keys for Duke

Capitalize on UConn naivety: With 16 new faces entering UConn from the transfer portal this season, Duke has a rare opportunity to prove its maturity and cohesion. UConn’s limited experience as a team will offer numerous chances for the Blue Devils to capitalize on defensive mistakes. The Huskies demonstrated their inability to collaborate during an Aug. 31 game against the Maryland Terrapins, giving up 381 passing yards and sacrificing many opportunities to gain possession of the ball. 

In last week's game against Northwestern, Duke's own Maalik Murphy completed 24-of-39 passes for 243 yards, an impressive start for the four-star transfer from the University of Texas. Replicating this performance against an already struggling UConn defense will ensure that the Blue Devils move the ball down the field with ease and score when the opportunity presents itself. UConn’s growing pains are apparent and will continue to show in its matchup against Duke at Wallace Wade Stadium Saturday.

Make UConn's quarterback uncomfortable: Presuming Fagnano starts Saturday, he will be entering Wallace Wade with a great deal of confidence after a blowout win against Merrimack. Not only did UConn prevail by a score of 63-17, but Fagnano completed 13-of-19 passes for 328 yards. While this statistic is impressive alone, the senior also succeeded in tying Dan Orlovsky’s school record for the most touchdown passes in a single game (5). 

Disrupting Fagnano’s momentum, however, should not be a challenge for the Blue Devils. The Duke defense gets into the back field at an alarmingly high rate, leading the nation in tackles for loss. By getting after Fagnano early, Duke can set the tone for the rest of the game and dominate defensively, a skill that the Blue Devils are all too familiar with. 

Third down efficiency: In its first game on the road against the Northwestern Wildcats, the Duke offense sacrificed numerous opportunities to score solely based on its lack of third-down success. Under Brewer, the Blue Devils have relied heavily on passing the ball, even in several third-and-short scenarios that traditionally favor running plays. These decisions, while they may seem small, were costly, as Duke trailed close behind Northwestern for the majority of the game. 

To compete against UConn, the offense will benefit from diversifying the play calling to avoid predictability and limit punting scenarios. Although the Huskies’ third down defense has been respectable up to this point, the Blue Devils cannot afford to shy away from the challenge. 

- Callan Perchinsky