Duke football hits the road Saturday to take on Middle Tennessee State, and The Chronicle is here to break down the Blue Raiders with an overview, stats to watch, X-factors and keys to the game:

Overview

2024 record: 1-2

Head coach: Derek Mason (first full season)

Series history: Duke leads 1-0

Last meeting: 41-18 Duke, Sept. 14, 2019

Looking for a new start this season, Middle Tennessee State stumbled through a 4-8 campaign this past year that saw the end of former head coach Rick Stockstill’s 18-year tenure. The 2023 effort was a disappointment for the squad that had earned an 8-5 record in 2022. The Blue Raiders fell short in a 23-20 nailbiter against Sam Houston to wrap up last season. After hiring former Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason in December, the team hailing from Murfreesboro, Tenn., prevailed 32-25 against Tennessee Tech in its Aug. 31 opener but suffered blowout losses to Western Kentucky and Ole Miss in the two weeks that followed.

Known for his defensive prowess, Mason will rely on a new-look line to take on quarterback Maalik Murphy’s offense. Graduate transfer Brendon Harris leads the charge with 18 tackles in three games this season, and redshirt freshman Jordan Thompson follows with 15 and a sack. The Blue Devils should look to capitalize on a young and struggling pass rush that allowed over 400 yards through the air and just six incompletions against the Hilltoppers last weekend. 

Despite coming out with a win against UConn last weekend, Duke blew a 17-0 lead and needed a late fourth-quarter comeback to continue its unbeaten streak. Notably the Blue Devils defense struggled considerably more in the second half than in the first, a theme that's clouded over Duke’s triumph so far this season. In fact, the Blue Devils have allowed 27 second-half points; 10 more than they’ve allowed in the first half of games. Middle Tennessee State, however, has had similar troubles this season, allowing a whopping 68 points in the final two quarters of their contests. In order to improve to 4-0, Duke must tighten up its second-half defense to keep games out of reach. It will get a chance to overcome this hurdle against a struggling Blue Raiders squad Saturday.  -Maya Bragg

X-Factor

Duke: Eli Pancol

Eli Pancol, the Blue Devil hailing from Pendleton, Ind., has been a stable force on Duke’s roster and continues to produce for its offense. In the 26-21 victory against UConn, Pancol tallied four receptions for 61 yards and scored one touchdown in an impressive 36-yard play, marking a new career high in touchdown catches. 

Before suffering a lower body injury in 2022 that kept him out of the 2023 season, Pancol amassed over 70 receptions for 912 yards and achieved an impressive career best of 106 receiving yards in a single game. But the Blue Devil wide receiver has already caught more touchdowns this season than in the entirety of his football career, proving that his explosive game-play remains unchanged. His 161 amassed yards this season place him second on the roster in receiving.

Despite his absence last season, Pancol has already proven himself to be a significant threat against Middle Tennessee. With not only five years of experience playing for the Blue Devils, but the ability to drive the ball down the field, he creates ample opportunities to score, as seen in his 36-yard play against UConn and scoring of at least one touchdown every game thus far.

Middle Tennessee State: Omari Kelly 

With a new head coach and coming off of a third losing season, Middle Tennessee is meeting the Blue Devils with a 1-2 record in 2024. Although the Blue Raiders lost 49-21 in their most recent game against Western Kentucky, all three of their touchdowns were scored by Auburn transfer wide receiver Omari Kelly. 

In Middle Tennessee’s season-opening victory against Tennessee Tech, Kelly led the Blue Raiders with four receptions. He also recently achieved a career-high game against Western Kentucky, amassing nine receptions for 239 yards and scoring a 71-yard touchdown. The 6-foot Trussville, Ala., native now ranks first on the team for receptions, yards and touchdowns.

Although Kelly had negative receiving yards and one catch in Middle Tennessee’s game against Ole Miss, he remains a formidable player in the Blue Raider roster. Thus, if Middle Tennessee wants to have a fighting chance against Duke and recover from its loss against Western Kentucky, Kelly must connect with quarterback Nicholas Vattiato and consistently move the ball down the field.  -Tyler Rogers

3 keys for Duke

Revitalize the running game: Duke finally showed some signs of life on the ground during Saturday’s match against UConn, rushing for 142 yards on 35 carries. Graduate running back Star Thomas stepped up in the absence of the injured Jaquez Moore, rushing for 122 yards, including a 22-yard carry that eventually led to a Blue Devil touchdown. Duke had averaged only 76 rushing yards in the previous two games, a number which pales in comparison to last year’s average of 167.2 yards per game. After running for 26 touchdowns and passing for 14 in 2023, the Blue Devils have only scored one touchdown on the ground compared to eight through the air this year. 

Considering the Middle Tennessee State defense has given up 158.3 rushing yards per game, Duke will have an opportunity to improve on Saturday’s outing. As the Blue Devil offense has heavily relied on big plays in the passing game, an infusion of potent running schemes would surely take some pressure off quarterback Maalik Murphy.

Consistency from Murphy: The Texas transfer has been solid in his first three starts as a Blue Devil, completing nearly 64% of his throws. Against the Huskies, the Inglewood, Calif., native started hot, connecting with wide receiver Jordan Moore for a touchdown on Duke’s first drive. Then, in the second quarter, Murphy passed a 36-yard touchdown to senior Eli Pancol, to increase the Blue Devils’ lead to 17-0. However, just before halftime, UConn linebacker Langston Hardy intercepted a pass from Murphy and returned it for a touchdown, leading to the first Husky score of the game. 

That play seemed to unnerve the Duke quarterback; after the halftime break, Murphy started his first two drives 1-for-4 passing, leading to a couple 3-and-outs. Meanwhile, the Husky offense started flowing, scoring two touchdowns in the third quarter and putting the Blue Devils behind 21-17. Thankfully, after a cold streak in the third quarter, the sophomore quarterback recovered and completed crucial passes, including a 24-yard throw to Star Thomas and a 20-yard pass to freshman wide receiver Que’Sean Brown for the game-winning touchdown. 

As a pass-heavy team, Duke is reliant on Murphy’s ability to hit deep targets. When Murphy is hitting targets, the Blue Devil offense realizes its full potential as a high-octane passing unit which is capable of competing against the best in the ACC. Even though the Blue Raiders defense has struggled so far this season, more consistent passing from Murphy should ensure a more comfortable game this time around.

Regain defensive composure: In past seasons, Duke’s defense has been a defining factor in the team’s success, and this year is no different. The Blue Devil defense has allowed only 247.3 yards per outing — 19th overall in the country. Furthermore, Duke is only allowing an average of 3.1 yards per carry and 113.7 rushing yards per contest. Against UConn however, the defense had a couple of errant plays, which led to the Huskies earning 4.6 yards per carry, far higher than usual for the Blue Devils defense. At the start of the game, the Duke defense line gave up a 23-yard run to UConn quarterback Nick Evers. Then, later in the game, the Blue Devils seemed to focus on pressuring Evers, leaving wide-open receivers down the field. This more aggressive defensive scheme does not seem to be paying dividends, either. While the defense earned eight sacks in the season opener, they have only gotten a total of one in their two most recent outings. Against Middle Tennessee State, the Blue Devils should look to recover their staunch defensive identity.     -Jordan Labio