Saturday will see a close fight for the Victory Bell as Duke football takes to the gridiron against North Carolina. The Chronicle is here to break down the Tar Heels with an overview, stats to watch, X-factors and keys to the game:

Overview

2024 record: 3-1 

Head coach: Mack Brown 

Series history: North Carolina leads 64-40-4

Last meeting: 47-45 North Carolina, Nov. 11, 2023

Duke will face off against North Carolina Saturday in the infamous battle for the Victory Bell. The Tar Heels enter Wallace Wade Stadium coming off an embarrassing 70-50 loss against James Madison, a Group of Five team. Prior to that, North Carolina scraped by in its 2024 season opener against Minnesota, winning 19-17 following a lucky field goal miss by Golden Gopher kicker Dragan Kesich. The Tar Heels attempted to keep the momentum rolling with a 38-20 win against Charlotte and then a 45-10 victory against N.C. Central the following week. 

But in Week 4, North Carolina gave up 53 points to the Dukes before halftime, including five first-half touchdown drives. James Madison's quarterback, Alonza Barnett III, tallied 388 passing yards and 99 rushing yards. When all was said and done, the Dukes had matched the most points ever allowed by the Tar Heels in a single game in program history. 

The most important stat to the outcome of this weekend’s game is rushing yards. Although Duke is coming off a big win against Middle Tennessee State, the Blue Devils need to move forward and focus on improving their run game this weekend against the Tar Heels. North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton tallied an impressive 1,504 rushing yards in 2023, and has already amassed an additional 555 this year. Although these numbers may seem daunting, the Duke defense has what it takes to shut down the run. Fans should hope that the reconstructed Blue Devil defensive line can win the battle up front and set the tone for the game by keeping Hampton quiet.

Offensively, Duke has not been overly reliant on running the ball. The Blue Devils have only earned 488 rushing yards, a number they will need to see improve in order to remain undefeated in 2024. This season, Duke has given up a total of 509 yards on the ground, while the Tar Heels have allowed 426. Ultimately, the Blue Devils will have a good chance of winning if they can create big plays on the ground and prevent their rivals from doing the same.  -Ava Guglielmo

X-Factor

Duke: Star Thomas

Thomas, a New Mexico State transfer, has proven to be a stellar addition to Duke’s roster. The graduate student comes to Duke after being named Second Team All-Conference USA in 2023. His performance last season for the Aggies was solid, as he racked up 653 yards in 112 attempts. So far during his time at Duke, Thomas has continued to be a strong rushing force. 

The past two games have demonstrated the threat he serves to any defense challenging the Blue Devils. In back-to-back matchups, Thomas has ended with over 100 rushing yards, gaining 122 against UConn. In Duke’s most recent face-off against Middle Tennessee State, he tacked on two touchdowns.

The Blue Devils are hungry for victory on their home turf, and Thomas’ performance may prove to be crucial to help defeat the Tar Heels. In North Carolina’s most recent loss against James Madison, its defensive line was easily broken by rushers. Thomas’ ability to puncture the line, especially in the red zone, could result in the Tar Heels living through another nightmare of a game — this time on rival turf. 

North Carolina: Jacolby Criswell 

Criswell took the first snap of the Tar Heels’ game against James Madison, becoming the third quarterback to start in the team's last four matchups. The combination of a devastating 70-50 home loss and brief resignation rumors surrounding head coach Mack Brown has left the team needing a leader. Naturally, eyes fall on Criswell as the current starter. 

He began his collegiate football career with North Carolina from 2020-22. The graduate student then spent the 2023 campaign at Arkansas, before returning to play for the Tar Heels this season. In their Week 3 game against North Carolina Central, Criswell came onto the field to replace underperforming backup Conner Harrell, throwing for 161 yards and a touchdown. 

Against the Dukes, amidst the chaos of a disappointing defensive performance, Criswell ultimately demonstrated strength. He threw for a 28-of-48 completion rate and three touchdowns. His 475 passing yards Saturday were a career-high and the third-most in a single game in program history.

As the Tar Heels enter Wallace Wade Stadium for the anticipated rivalry game versus the Blue Devils, they seek redemption. Criswell must take command of the offense, minimize turnovers and connect with his receivers to have a chance of leaving Durham victorious.  -Lucy Glynn

3 keys for Duke

Target the secondary: North Carolina suffered a historically bad loss at the hands of James Madison last Saturday. Despite coming into Chapel Hill as heavy underdogs, the Dukes dismantled Carolina’s defense in a shocking 70-50 road win. James Madison’s offense ran circles around the Tar Heel secondary, totalling 388 yards through the air. Not only did North Carolina’s defensive backs struggle to prevent the pass, but they also had a difficult time stopping runners at the second level, as the Dukes added another 223 yards of offense on the ground, totaling a staggering 611 yards on the day.

The Blue Devils have not been shy about passing the ball so far this year. Quarterback Maalik Murphy has thrown for over 1000 yards and 11 touchdowns under some aggressive play calling from offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer. Additionally, the Blue Devils' run game has seen some improvement over the last couple weeks. Duke has tallied over 100 yards rushing in back to back games, something it will be eager to replicate against North Carolina. If the Blue Devils continue to find success on the ground and in the air, they will be able to stretch the Tar Heel defense and open up the game for some big plays.

Start hot and stay focused: Last week Duke got on the board early with a 71-yard touchdown pass to tight end Nicky Dalmolin. The Blue Devils went on to dominate the game on both sides of the ball in an impressive 45-17 victory on the road. The Tar Heels, on the other hand, were not as successful against James Madison. The Dukes took a quick lead with a field goal, and followed it up by returning a blocked punt for a touchdown on the next defensive possession. By halftime, James Madison led the home team 53-21, and it was clear that North Carolina had no hope for a comeback.

If Duke wants to replicate James Madison's success this weekend, it should look to the way that the Dukes attacked the game from the start. Blocking a punt and recovering an onside kick in the first half may not necessarily be realistic goals, but the Blue Devils should still learn from the way James Madison looked to push the ball downfield against a below-average defensive unit. If Duke builds an early lead against the Tar Heels, it will be a matter of maintaining focus to seal the victory in a crucial rivalry matchup. 

Win the turnover battle: Whichever team does a better job protecting the ball gives itself a good chance of bringing home the Victory Bell Saturday. This task may prove difficult for North Carolina's offense, which struggled to maintain possession last weekend. Careless mistakes led the Tar Heels to turn the ball over five times against the Dukes. By consistently putting the James Madison offense in scoring positions, North Carolina blew any chance of securing the win. 

Diaz’s squad has been nothing short of excellent on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Blue Devils lead the ACC in forced fumbles, a trend they hope to see continue against the Tar Heels. Additionally, the Duke defense has managed to haul in three interceptions and rack up 15 sacks. The chance to play against a sloppy North Carolina attack should be an exciting prospect for the Blue Devils as they look to tally their first ACC win in the Diaz era.  

-Ben Curtis