In Duke football’s double-overtime finish against Northwestern Sept. 7, quarterback Maalik Murphy played exceptionally in the two overtime periods. His first pass was a deep throw down the middle to wide receiver Jordan Moore, who hauled it in over three Wildcat defenders to tie the contest up. This huge throw shifted the tone of the game for both the Blue Devils and Murphy’s individual performance, showing just how far he can go as Duke’s starting quarterback.
Supporters of Murphy may point to his two game-winning drives against Northwestern and UConn and his elite arm talent to argue in favor of his starting role. Meanwhile, detractors may point to his interceptions, off-target miscues and lack of dominant performances against lower-caliber teams. Although few would say that the redshirt sophomore has hurt the team, just how good he is is a matter of debate.
Analytics tell a largely positive story about Murphy through three games. However, in such a statistics-heavy sport like football, it’s never that simple. What is Murphy’s true impact on the Duke offense, and what is his ceiling at quarterback according to advanced statistics?
PFF grades
Pro Football Focus (PFF) utilizes play-by-play data and footage review to assign an analytical report to every player in the NCAA and NFL. Specifically for quarterbacks, PFF breaks down performance based on length of throw, play design and defensive pressure. This is ideal to measure a true pocket passer like Murphy; while playing for Texas, he developed in an “Air Raid” system that emphasized aggressive passes. Murphy has rarely run with the football in the 2024 season, so analysis can primarily focus on his output through the air.
PFF grades each play on a scale from -2 to +2, with a score of 0 classified as the “average or ‘expected’ grade,” according to PFF’s website. These plays are also broken down by type of play; for example, a quarterback will receive grades for passing, running the ball, run-blocking and even his ball security.
After all plays are graded, the player receives a grade for the entire game on a scale from zero to 100. These grades aim to contextualize a player’s performance and game statistics. PFF notes that a player’s season grade may exceed their highest game grade during that season, because the site rewards sustained periods of strong play.
A PFF grade of around 70 is an average performance, while a grade of 90 or higher is considered elite. Since PFF began grading NCAA players in 2014, the highest single-season passing grade for a quarterback was set by BYU quarterback Zach Wilson in 2020 at an impressive 95.5. On the other end, the lowest such grade was earned by Rutgers quarterback Artur Sitkowski in the 2018 season, where he received a 27.4.
The good
Through three games, Murphy has played well from a statistical perspective, throwing for 801 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. PFF gives Murphy a very strong 83.2 passing grade on the season. Of the 95 FBS quarterbacks that have dropped back to pass at least 71 times in the 2024 season, Murphy ranks 16th in passing grade and in overall offense grade.
According to PFF, Murphy has excelled on throwing deep thus far in the season. PFF defines a deep throw as 20 yards or more from the line of scrimmage, and Murphy holds an outstanding 88.9 grade on 24 attempts. However, from a traditional statistical perspective, he has been relatively inconsistent on deep throws: Murphy has only completed 25% of such passes while throwing two interceptions.
Figure 1 compares FBS quarterbacks’ NFL passer rating on deep throws to their PFF grade on such throws. For context, NFL passer rating amalgamates four quarterback statistics — yards per attempt, completion percentage, touchdown percentage and interception percentage — and yields a metric from 0 to 158.3, with a higher number generally indicating a better performance.
Figure 1 — Minimum of 13 deep passing attempts needed to qualify.
On this graph, quarterbacks in the top-right corner are exceptional on deep throws from both a quantitative and qualitative perspective; they have produced several touchdowns on these throws while throwing the ball near-perfectly on deep plays.
Murphy is an outlier, as he grades out excellent from PFF despite a sub-70 passer rating on deep throws. Perhaps this is because of his large share of “big-time throws” when he passes deep. This PFF-created statistic is defined as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” In other words, these types of throws are aggressive yet still give receivers a great shot at catching the ball thanks to superb placement.
The “big-time throws” statistic has the advantage of controlling for just the quarterback. For example, a few of Murphy’s deep throws have either been dropped or have come within inches of being caught, while others have been broken up in good defensive plays. Figure 2 compares FBS quarterbacks’ big-time throws as a percentage of their deep throws to their PFF grade.
Figure 2
Clearly, Murphy is not afraid to push the ball downfield, and many of his deep throws are excellent. The Inglewood, Calif., native has also played well on play-action, which refers to plays where the quarterbacks fakes a handoff to a running back before throwing the ball. Figure 3 compares FBS quarterbacks’ passer rating and PFF grade on play-action throws, with the same minimum of 71 dropbacks needed to qualify.
Figure 3
Murphy’s pedigree on play-action throws is perhaps especially impressive given Duke’s inability to establish the run this season. The Blue Devils average just 3.1 rush yards per attempt as a team, and that number still accounts for running back Star Thomas’ impressive 122-yard performance against UConn Sept. 14. This also points to a strength and weakness of the Blue Devils’ new-look offensive line: Its ability to pass-block has exceeded its run-blocking capability. PFF supports this, with a season pass-blocking grade of 77.6 for the Duke offense compared to a 64.4 run-blocking grade.
Overall, it appears Murphy has performed well on deep balls and play-action concepts. But what has he faltered at?
What to improve
When stepping back to pass, a quarterback does not only compete against opposing defensive backs. Defensive linemen and on-ball linebackers alike attempt to sack the quarterback or to at least force an inaccurate throw.
On some plays this season, Duke’s offensive line, radically changed from last season, has allowed defensive pressure to get to Murphy. Figure 4 compares NFL passer rating and PFF grade on pressured throws, with a minimum of 15 such throws needed to qualify.
Figure 4
According to the data, Murphy has struggled under defensive pressure, completing 3-of-15 passes for 39 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions on these throws. In Duke’s win against Northwestern, for instance, Murphy missed a few throws and threw a costly interception while pressured. To be fair, Murphy has produced well on throws where the pocket is kept clean, which Figure 5 displays.
Figure 5
Overall, Maalik Murphy has produced solid quarterback play for the Blue Devils through three games. The analytics suggest his output could be even better with more play-action calls and deep routes by offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer. It is reasonable that his output falters when under pressure, but improvements can be made through better ball placement, finishing throws on-balance or simply throwing the football away.
With his elite arm talent, Murphy has all the skills to lead Duke’s offense to great heights — but whether he can put it together for the Blue Devils’ toughest stretch of the season remains to be seen.
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