The tale of Duke football’s season thus far is one of two conflicting narratives.
First, the positive: The Blue Devils are undefeated. They have won two of their games by double-digit margins, and demonstrated some level of resilience in the other pair. Against UConn, Duke came from behind after a 21-point run by the Huskies to win late, proving that a demoralizing deficit against a weak team is something that the Blue Devils are mature enough to endure.
Against Northwestern, the squad from Durham faced off against a Power 4 school in a highly atypical environment, got taken to double overtime and won. Against a feisty Wildcats team that had a strong 2023 season given the circumstances, that is a perfectly acceptable outcome.
Of course, in the games against Elon and Middle Tennessee, things were much more straightforward. Two dominant wins where Duke (mostly) cruised to victories behind outstanding defense and some solid scoring efforts.
Then, there’s the other side of the coin. There are troubling signs, especially on offense, for this Blue Devil team. It floundered in the middle of the game against the Huskies, and is yet to face what most would consider to be truly strong defensive teams. Factoring in the general lack of high-end competition Duke has faced, things could go downhill fast when the Blue Devils play against more talented ACC opponents.
Quarterback Maalik Murphy has generally been solid so far this season. He has displayed his cannon of an arm, connecting with his receivers for big plays deep down the field on numerous occasions. That said, he has also shown significant signs of immaturity. He makes some risky throws and bad reads, especially in mid- to short-range situations. We’ve also seen the Texas transfer give up easily avoidable interceptions and occasionally hang his receivers out to dry with poorly-thrown deep balls. Against more talented defensive backs in ACC play, Murphy will need to tighten things up. The secondaries are bigger, stronger and faster compared to most of what he has faced so far as a Blue Devil, and if he continues to make those poor throws, he might be punished more often down the stretch.
However, the offensive issues do not rest solely on the back of Murphy. To the contrary, I actually think he has played pretty well this season — and the numbers back that up. The signal-caller also has not had as much time in the pocket this season compared to how Riley Leonard fared last year. With an overhauled group up front, this is to be expected. It is compounded by the fact that Murphy is a more natural pocket-passer, rather than a threat with his legs. Opposing defenses can bring the pressure straight into the middle of the pocket, assuming that Murphy won’t roll out and take the ball down the field himself for any significant gain.
With a weaker rushing attack that’s picked up a middling 418 rushing yards thus far, options for opening up the field with the ground game are limited. Star Thomas has stepped up nicely in Jaquez Moore's absence, but the reality is defending teams know that Murphy and his arm are the centerpiece of the Duke offense. They will continue to prioritize pass defense with the understanding that the rushing attack is not fully proven, limiting opportunities for those coveted big plays.
More broadly, the offense has struggled with consistency. Duke went just 3-of-10 on third down against Middle Tennessee, and has posted an unimpressive 32.7% conversion rate on the year thus far. Three-and-outs also have abounded, with the Blue Devils racking up six of them against the Blue Raiders. Something has not quite yet clicked for the offense, and that has been clear in the execution.
The defense has been excellent, but also far from perfect. The focus on tackles for loss and backfield pressure has opened more opportunities for other teams to look for big plays. Duke gave up a 66-yard touchdown in the opening drive against Middle Tennessee, along with four plays of more than 20 yards against the Huskies. The defense looks good when it manages to collapse the pocket and cause chaos, but has struggled to stop long gains.
And so the question remains: What happens against quality ACC opponents? When the defense cannot get into the pocket and the opposing receivers are capable of dusting the average defensive back in man coverage? When Murphy has to worry about more ball hawks in the middle of the field? Right now, it remains to be seen.
Ultimately, there is a lot of potential to be unlocked by this Duke team. Murphy is a talented, if slightly inexperienced, quarterback with a high upside due to his arm. On the other side of the ball, the Blue Devils have the potential to create some serious trap games with their disruptive defense. Both of those narratives I mentioned earlier are well within the realm of possibilities. If the attack can’t adapt to faster, stronger opponents and Murphy continues to make the occasional (but too frequent for comfort) ill-advised throw, things could go south fast as the Blue Devils enter the second third of their season.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.
Martin Heintzelman is a Trinity junior and Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.