The 2024 season commences for Duke football Friday against Elon, and The Chronicle is here with an overview, stats to watch, x-factors and keys to the game:
Overview
2023 record: 6-5, 6-2 in the CAA (missed FCS playoffs)
Head coach: Tony Trisciani (sixth season)
Series history: Duke leads 7-0, as well as one 0-0 tie in 1921.
Last meeting: 52-13 Duke, Aug. 30, 2014
Elon is coming off its third straight winning season, getting through a difficult schedule to finish the 2023 season 6-5. The Phoenix have consistently been one of the top teams in the Coastal Athletic Association, the only squad in the league to have won at least five games in each of the past three seasons. They opened 2023 with ACC opponent Wake Forest; Elon faced a 24-0 halftime deficit, but won the second half 17-13 to a respectable final score of 37-17. The team has demonstrated its ability to put up points against Power 5 competition, scoring 31 against Vanderbilt in 2022 — the same season they qualified for the FCS playoffs.
The Phoenix are returning 15 starters, including two All-CAA selections in defensive back Caleb Curtain and wide receiver Chandler Brayboy. The aptly named cover corner had 80 tackles, four interceptions and six pass breakups last year. Quarterback Matthew Downing has some big-time college football experience, seeing time leading offenses at Georgia, TCU and Louisiana Tech. The redshirt senior started nine games last year and threw for nearly 2,000 yards. Downing will bring poise and veteran experience to the quarterback position, but will face a lot of pressure from new defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke’s defense.
This season, Elon is looking for another strong campaign, once again predicted to finish near the top of its conference. Much of its roster is the same, but the team also brought in numerous pieces from the transfer portal — including many former FBS players — to bolster its lineup. Although the Phoenix are a lower-level team, they have real talent and depth on both sides of the ball.
Stat to watch: Tackles for loss, passing yards
These first two charts compare Duke and Elon’s passing yards per game in 2023. While the Blue Devils have an entire new play-calling scheme this year, Duke fans should not be surprised to see that the team did not always excel in passing the ball. On the other hand, the Phoenix had six games in which their quarterback threw for over 200 yards.
With redshirt sophomore Maalik Murphy at the helm, keep an eye out for the Blue Devils to attack through the air Friday. The same could be said for Elon, though, so the Duke defense must be wary of receivers on the outside.
If there’s one staple of a Manny Diaz-run defense, it’s tackles for loss. Diaz prides himself on creating chaos defensively, and his units have routinely been near the top of the country in that statistic over the years. These two graphs show Duke and Elon’s performance in tackles for loss over last season. The blue line represents a moving total, while the red line is the season average.
With a physical advantage in the trenches, the Blue Devils should look to pick up plenty of tackles for loss Friday, and Diaz will certainly look to bring up Duke’s season average from a year ago. On the other side of the ball, it will come up to the brand-new offensive line to protect Murphy in the pocket and ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage to limit the Phoenix’s ability to tack on negative yards.
X-Factor
Duke: Jaquez Moore
Moore initially put his name in the transfer portal, but decided to return for his senior season with Duke. He is one continuity amongst a lot of offensive changes, and his name will likely be called early and often for the Blue Devils. Moore has improved his production during each of the past three seasons, including a 674-yard season as second-in-command to former starter Jordan Waters.
The Blue Devils have a largely new offensive line, and although they are experienced with previous schools, their chemistry is still to be determined. Moore’s veteran leadership and his knack for both finding gaps and bouncing to the outside will assist this new line tremendously. Because Elon comes in with a strong secondary — more on that below — Moore will be highly utilized, even with the Air Raid attack of new offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer.
“We’re moving at a fast pace, fast tempo, looking to keep teams on their heels,” Moore said at fall camp. “I kind of like it, it pushes the pace and makes me push myself.”
Moore has the ability to rip off big runs, including a 42-yard touchdown score against Florida State and a patient 58-yard burst against Virginia. If the Live Oak, Fla., native gets going early, he will wear down the Phoenix defense during the contest. Moore has not yet produced as a pass-catching back, but adding that to his game could diversify the Duke offense and create even more danger for opposing defenses.
Elon: Caleb Curtain and Khalil Baker
Elon’s safety pair is the strength of its team and could prove a worthy foe for the strong arm of Murphy. Curtain is a first-team Preseason All-American by multiple outlets and the CAA Preseason Defensive Player of the Year. The rangy defensive back led his team in tackles, pass breakups, interceptions and fumble recoveries. He had a 50-yard pick six against Wake Forest to open the 2023 season, and Murphy will need to have his eye on No. 1 at all times.
Baker is an experienced safety who played the first four years of his college career in Durham at N.C. Central. In 2022, Baker earned a host of awards, including MEAC Defensive Player of the Year and consensus first-team All-American honors. The Winston-Salem, N.C., native brings a host of experience to this Phoenix secondary and is a good complement to Curtain’s viability.
Although Elon is largely outmatched against Duke, this defense will try to limit big plays and keep everything in front of them. If Curtain and Baker can force some turnovers on the young Murphy, they can keep this a contested game for a prolonged period.
3 keys for Duke
Get drives started: The Blue Devils’ up-tempo offense should bring plenty of excitement this season with its high-volume passing and frenetic pace. However, tempo offenses tend to struggle when they cannot get that first first down. If Duke can establish a strong start to each drive, it will allow the offense to play as fast as it wants and catch the defense on its heels. On the other hand, if the Phoenix can get the Blue Devils off the field quickly, the home team could start pushing too hard for big plays.
The fact that Friday is the first game of the season — meaning new quarterback Maalik Murphy and the rest of the offense will be pressured to make a good impression — only amplifies the importance of a well-executed first set of downs. On every possession that Duke goes three-and-out, Elon will build that much more confidence as an underdog.
Watch for Murphy’s execution on early-down reads. If he can stay disciplined and take check-down options when necessary, it will open up Brewer’s playbook on third down. Incompletions — and worse, sacks — will make it more difficult to keep the chains moving.
Win the line of scrimmage: It’s no question that the Blue Devils’ biggest volume of losses on the roster came on the offensive and defensive lines. All three of Duke’s players selected in last season’s NFL Draft — Graham Barton, DeWayne Carter and Jacob Monk — came from the trenches, and even more left to graduation and the transfer portal.
While there are players capable of stepping up to fill some of those roles, both incoming transfers and emerging underclassmen, replacing that level of production is no easy task. It may be hard to gauge Duke’s standing on the lines against the Phoenix, as the Blue Devils will likely have an overwhelming physical advantage, but Friday will be the first look at a brand new group. Preventing any sacks or picking up more than a few on the other side will be a great sign for the rest of the season.
Embrace the new look: Over the last two years, Duke has gone from a bottom-of-the-conference program to a back-to-back bowl champion. Now, a new head coach, overhauled roster and brand new additions to the stadium usher in yet another era of Blue Devil football.
It may take some time for the players, fans and coaching staff alike to adjust to all of the changes, but the most important key for the entire Duke program is to buy into these changes. Head coach Manny Diaz — with the help of strength coach David Feeley — has worked all offseason to ensure this is the case, and after accepting the job eight months ago, Friday will finally reveal whether he has put the team on a path towards success.
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Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Ranjan Jindal is a Trinity junior and sports editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.